10 January 2015 (Randwick)

Racing at RANDWICK today with penetrometer: 4.86, meaning we're on a GOOD (3).

RAIL: TRUE ENTIRE CIRCUIT (All should get their chance, small fields, tactics/pace key)

Race 1: We were very confident about BOOMWAA last time at a juicy $10 and we got the chocolates easily, however different story today at $2.20 over 1400m. Think this is a tricky opener, with tactics and pace key. Watch, learn and hopefully get an indication of how track will play.

SUGGEST: NO BET (CONFIDENCE 0%)

Race 2: FLAMBOYANT LASS does look the one to beat, but simply too many unknowns with several unraced 2YOs here. Recommend watching and learning. If you must play, possibly stick FLAMBOYANT LASS into some of your multies/parlays.

SUGGEST: NO BET (CONFIDENCE 0%)

Race 3: VANDEMONIAN (BEST LONGSHOT)*** @ $26+ (SPORTSBET). Another small yet tricky race. A stack of race on paper, and as much as we were close to jumping into DUPE' EM, meeting INZ'N'OUT 2kg worse for 2.6l defeat doesn't add up. INZ'N'OUT the one to beat but rock bottom odds, prefer small play VANDEMONIAN @ $18+.

SUGGEST: VANDEMONIAN (BEST LONGSHOT) @ $26+ (EACH WAY) (CONFIDENCE 20%)

Race 4: PERFECT WEAPON @ $9.50+ (BETEASY). Ugly race, where it's a case of trying to find 'least worst'. Hoping they crawl up front and PERFECT WEAPON leads/right up there and prove hard to run down. Clipperton back on a plus given he has ridden him twice for 2 victories to finish off last prep. Not overly confident.

SUGGEST: PERFECT WEAPON @ $9.50+ (EACH WAY) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

Race 5:IL MIO DESTINO @ $17+(SPORTSBET) (BEST VALUE)**,  HOLY DELUSIONS @ $5.50+ (CENTREBET). Another very tricky race. Best value lies with IL MIO DESTINO at $15+ with minimal pace on paper again. Should give them something to catch in the straight. Main danger and suggestion WIN bet is HOLY DELUSIONS who is very well weighted here, however will get back hence would ideally like some pace up front. Wary of HOYBELL first up after long break.

SUGGEST: IL MIO DESTINO @ $17+ (BEST VALUE) (EACH WAY), HOLY DELUSIONS @ $5.50+ (WIN) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

Race 6: THE ALFONSO top pick, but rock bottom odds, so prefer to leave. There are a couple here who are more than capable, but current fitness/form a bit unknown after long breaks, notably stablemates GOSH and DIAMETRIC. If you must, include in multies, safer option.

SUGGEST: NO BET (CONFIDENCE 0%)

Race 7: THERMAL CURRENT (BEST BET)* @ $4.40+ (SPORTSBET). Keen on THERMAL CURRENT here. Many are tipping INSIDE JOB, hence we should get a decent price. Hoping the edge has been taken off INSIDE JOB off super run last time when wide, now drops back to 1000m which is the concern. THERMAL CURRENT was our BEST BET last week in Melbourne, was scratched and we will make her our BEST BET again.

SUGGEST: THERMAL CURRENT (BEST BET) @ $4.40+ (EACH WAY) (CONFIDENCE 70%)

Race 8: Not overly keen at this stage, might see how the day progresses and how track is playing before deciding whether to play here or not.

SUGGEST: NO BET (CONFIDENCE 0%)

SUMMARY:

$12.48 PER UNNER

150% CONFIDENCE LEVEL EXTREMELY LOW 

WITH ONLY ONE RACE WE'RE PARTICULARLY KEEN ON WITH OUR 'BEST BET' THERMAL CURRENT ATTRACTIVE $4.40+ ODDS. THE GOSFORD MEETING YESTERDAY SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN ITS TOLL HERE WITH MANY SMALL FIELDS WITH MINIMAL/ZERO VALUE. AVERAGE ODDS A JUICY $12.48 PER RUNNER.  

 *BEST BET: THERMAL CURRENT 

 ** BEST VALUE: IL MIO DESTINO 

 *** BEST LONGSHOT: VANDEMONIAN 

#HAPPYPUNTING