31 January 2015 (Flemington)

Racing at FLEMINGTON with penetrometer: 4.84, meaning we're on a GOOD (3).

RAIL: +11M ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Expected no disadvantage to be settling midfield or worse, however Mick Goodie has said it will favour inside 8m, hence let’s just hope it plays fair, pace dependant. Also, keep an eye on wind direction, with 30kph winds)

 

Race 1: WAWAIL is one we backed successfully second up at juicy odds a while back and is the clear one to beat here. But, unfortunately we’ve missed the boat (opened $2.70+) and not interested in $1.70+ first time down the straight. Feel free to include in wider multies/multiples. Instead think best value lies with ROLL THE IGNITION at $15+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, SPORTSBET), $3.40+ the place is good value in 8 horse race where 3 place dividends are in play.

SUGGEST: ROLL THE IGNITION (EACH WAY) @ $15.00+, WAWAIL (MULTIES/RUNNING DOUBLE INTO RACE 2) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: LUCKY LIBERTY looks above average and the one to beat here, $2.60+ (CENTREBET, SPORTINGBET, TOM WATERHOUSE) is good enough for a play but wouldn’t want to be taking shorter. Dangers at decent odds include **SIEGESTOR** (BEST VALUE) @ $15+ (SPORTSBET) and CONVINCABLE @ $9.50+ (CENTREBET, SPORTINGBET, TOM WATERHOUSE).

SUGGEST: LUCKY LIBERTY (RUNNING DOUBLES INTO RACE 3: 4, 9) @ $2.60+, SIEGESTOR & CONVINCABLE (WIN SAVER/EACH WAY) @ $15+ (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

Race 3: Looks a two horse battle here between STREET ALLURE @ $3.90+ (CENTREBET, SPORTINGBET, TOM WATERHOUSE) and BETTER LAND with a lean towards the later at $2.75+ (SPORTSBET). Should LUCKY LIBERTY salute in Race 2, you may simply be in a position to leave with these two alive in the second leg of your running double. If not, we suggest playing around the two mentioned across multiples, with the lean towards BETTER LAND.

SUGGEST: BETTER LAND (WIN/MULTIPLES – PRIMARY) @ $2.75+, STREET ALLURE (WIN/MULTIPLES – SECONDARY) @ $3.90+ (CONFIDENCE 70%)

 

Race 4: tough race, but like a couple here who we expect to get back, hence need some pace on and a track that gives backmarkers a chance. Wide gate (11) but lean towards ELLE EXCITE backing up quickly @ $6+ after winning very well earlier in the week. Then sticking with KISS ME KETUT again at odds, this time $13+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU). Last time was its last chance to be in the money after being on previously at ballpark odds with excuses and ran a good 3rd at $4.40+ place (after being our BEST VALUE bet of the day) and meets several here better at the weights for that run. Although has drawn terribly again in barrier 10, hence expect to get back. Need pace on. Monitor early races to ensure backmarkers have their chance.

SUGGEST: KISS ME KETUT (EACH WAY) @ $13.00+, ELLE EXCITE (EACH WAY) @ $6.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: AKZAR @ $2.70+ (MOST OPERATORS) looks the one to beat here after the perfect ‘ready to win’ run last time behind one of our faves in Jacquinot Bay. Next best and main danger is EXTRA ZERO @ $5.50+ (MOST OPERATORS) who gets some weights relief this time and saluted for dungeon fans when on two back at tidy odds. Wouldn’t be against playing place only here or multiples with top pick and blowout hope. Blowout hope to *CRAFTY CRUISER* (BEST LONGSHOT) who seems to be going better at the shorter 2000m distance this time around and worth a small dabble at $51+ (SPORTSBET).

SUGGEST: AKZAR (WIN – PRIMARY/MULTIES) @ $2.70+, EXTRA ZERO (PLACE/MULTIPLES) @ $5.50+, CRAFTY CRUISER (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)

 

Race 6: Tough race and a lot will depend on how track is playing. We want to watch the early races before suggesting any for the last 4 races or simply deciding to steer clear.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 7: We want to watch the early races before suggesting any for the last 4 races or simply deciding to steer clear.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 8: We want to watch the early races before suggesting any for the last 4 races or simply deciding to steer clear.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 9: We want to watch the early races before suggesting any for the last 4 races or simply deciding to steer clear.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE: SEIGESTOR @ $15+

 * BEST LONGSHOT: CRAFTY CRUISER @ $51+

 

DOUBLES/MULTIES:

- Suggest a dabble at multies including any of the following you are keen on:

- WAWAIL

- LUCKY LIBERTY

- BETTER LAND/STREET ALLURE

- AZKAR

 TOTAL: $32.50+ and $45.50+ if you take 4 leg multies all to win with both in leg 3...

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING