ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 2, 2015
Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer currently reading 4.59, currently a GOOD (4) track.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Moonee Valley with the Friday night racing season off and running after starting last week when the rail was out +5M. Back to the TRUE, always the chance of them coming wide, however with the GOOD track expecting/hoping for an even track, with early races and speed maps your best guide.
Race 1: We open with the William Hill Plate over the 1200m. The obvious here are the two clear faves in KEEN ARRAY and MAWAHIBB and rightly so, however there does seem to be decent pace on paper here, so thinking the pressure on up front might set it up for one of the closers at odds. Last time we liked WELL SIGHTED at $61 who closed extremely well behind the two faves here and although we aren’t getting $61 anymore, the $13+ (BET365) on offer is worth a play each way. The other is PRESTWICK @ $16+ (most operators) for similar reasons despite the wide draw. First four strategy could be played with suggestions for 4th and the two faves to win/2nd/3rd depending on how you like playing.
SUGGEST: WELL SIGHTED (EACH WAY) @ $13+, PRESTWICK (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / F / F / 5, 6), (F / 1, 3 / F / 5, 6), (F / F / 1, 3 / 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: Benchmark 90 over 1500m. Tricky race, made harder with an apparent lack of pace on paper, hence tactics and tempo key. Sort of race where you could do worse than tipping on the back of best jockeys. Slight lean overall to SO DOES HE @ $6+ (SPORTSBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) who can put back to back wins together here, and like the flexibility for Vlad Duric to elect to be ridden just off the pace or midfield from barrier 7 which should find him in the right spot on the turn.
SUGGEST: SO DOES HE (EACH WAY) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Group 2 WFA for the mares over the mile and an extremely even affair with just about every runner with legitimate winning claims in a small field. Again, minimal pace on paper, hence pace and tactics key. Slight lean **UNGRATEFUL ELLEN** @ $10+ (UNIBET) plainly based on being the best value of the lot. Given the odds will make one of our BEST VALUE bets of the day/night. Wide leg for multiples/early quaddies, etc. Main dangers MAY’S DREAM who is flying and must be close to a win and FENWAY once of our faves who will get better each run, but good enough to nail this.
SUGGEST: **UNGRATEFUL ELLEN** (EACH WAY) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 4: Now for the Jeep 55 second challenge and the mad dash that always eventuates. No different here and they look set to go out like cut snakes which should set things up for one to swoop late and we think that will be in the form of CONSORTING first up after a break at the respectable price of $8+ with most operators, nice each way value. Trialled okay behind Rich Enuff recently and important to note that was on a heavy 8, which isn’t CONSORTING’s preferred surface. Main danger QUARTZITE who is a speed machine and runs time, the query being the amount of pressure on up front. Include in savers.
SUGGEST: CONSORTING (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Now for one of the features in the Stutt Stakes for the 3YOs over the mile. On face value RAGNAAR was the one who jumped out at $4.80+, however upon closer inspection of win last start (Australian debut), took a long time to steady up and finally get going, which isn’t ideal for the tight turning Moonee Valley track. So a legitimate chance, but have instead found another we would like to play as top pick in PATCH ADAMS @ the juicy $8.50+ price. HE’S OUR ROKKII did win impressively last time, however is awkwardly drawn a will need some luck second up over the mile. May be a saver play utilising the first four strategy with him running 1st/2nd/3rd into PATCH ADAMS 4th.
SUGGEST: PATCH ADAMS (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 2), (F / 3 / F / 2), (F / F / 3 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
QUADDIES (added at 8:36pm AEST):
SKINNY: 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9, 11 / 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 / 13 / 3, 6, 8, 9, 11
FAT: 2, 3, 5, 7, 8 / 3, 5, 7, 8, 10 / 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 12 / 3, 6, 9, 11
Race 6: Group 3 JRA Cup over the famous 2040m Cox Plate distance at the Valley. THE UNITED STATES most definitely the one to beat but instead of a standalone play at the small enough $3.70+ will look to restrict to savers with First Four strategy, multiples, possibly even a narrow/one out quaddie option. Instead think better value lies with **DIGITALISM** who represents excellent each way value at $21+ with LUXBET. Given the odds will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day/night. Doesn’t look to be a lot of pace on paper hence hoping Dunn elects to utilise the good gate (2) and take a much more forward position, just off the pace. Other dangers for multiples include AWESOME ROCK, GENUINE LAD and MAGNAPAL. The 5 mentioned worthy of a boxed trifecta/first four play.
SUGGEST: **DIGITALISM** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, TRIFECTA/FIRST FOUR (BOXED 3, 5, 7, 8, 10), FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: And now for the feature, the Group 1 Moir Stakes over 1000m and what a cracking race this is, as usual. You’ll struggle to find a racehorse racing as well as PETITS FILOUS at the moment and despite the step up in class here, expect her to be very hard to beat again at $2.40+ with BET365. Suggest a WIN only play here. A lot of pressure on Boss on board so will be interesting how he handles it. Looks to be plenty of pace up front so from gate 5, expecting the perfect run behind the on pacers, off the fence, out of trouble, ready to peel wide as they turn for home. Looking further, can make a case for two at any old odds in *LE BONSIR* @ $67+ (SPORTSBET) and *STERLING CITY* @ $101+ (SPORTSBET, BET365, CROWNBET, UNIBET), to hopefully inject serious value into the multiples. Given the odds, will make both our joint BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day/night.
SUGGEST: PETITS FILOUS (WIN) @ $2.40+, *LE BONSIR* (EACH WAY) @ $67+, *STERLING CITY* (EACH WAY) @ $101+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: We finish with a benchmark 90 over 1200m. Key to the pace of the race here is whether GALAXY PEGASUS can jump and lead them after being terrible out of the gates of late. Been waiting for SARAJEVO to return and finally gets conditions to suit, however has drawn poorly in gate 12 and as a result need to risk at the price as chances are he will be wide the trip, hence the $4.80+ unfortunately doesn’t represent enough value to risk. Pace looks moderate, half hoping GALAZY PEGASUS misses it, as that will then suit out suggested plays led by TAWTEEN @ $5.50+ (SPORTSBET) ahead of SOLSAY @ $26+ (SPORTSBET, LUXBET) who has been very good to dungeon followers of late running a drum at odds, then helping us secure a big first four utilising the first four strategy last time. JAVA is the other who we’ve been following closely, is going very well, with the main query the big weight here. First four savers could be worth a play here also.
SUGGEST: TAWTEEN (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, SOLSAY (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (1, 15 / F / F / 3, 6), (F / 1, 15 / F / 3, 6), (F / F / 1, 15 / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a very juicy $23.70+ per suggested runner!!!
** BEST VALUE **: UNGRATEFUL ELLEN @ $10+, DIGITALISM @ $21+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: LE BONSIR @ $67+, STERLING CITY @ $101+