ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.23, currently looking at a GOOD (3) track. A few showers were originally forecast, but modified forecast now only expecting a slight chance of rain (25%), so another firm track expected. Given the criticism throughout the week, we expect ‘some’ additional ‘give’ in the track Saturday.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Caulfield again for the third time this week after racing here last Saturday and on Wednesday, when the rail was in the TRUE position on both occasions. Hoping for an even track, not expecting the fence to be ‘off’ like it was last week, however as always be sure to monitor early races and refer to speed maps for best guide.
Race 1: We start Caulfield Cup Day 2015 with the Yellowglen Plate over 1400m for the three year old fillies. Tricky start with many different form lines to try and line up and minimal experience to work with in some instances. Looks to be a decent tempo on paper, which should give all runners their chance. Many legitimate chances, but top pick SILENT SEDITION @ $4.50+ (SPORTSBET) on a WIN only basis, with best value in the form of YOUNG AMAZON at a very tidy $35 price with LUXBET. Suggest playing around the two, while AIR APPARENT @ $11+ (BET365) and ITALY @ $4.80+ will be the ones we sweep through the first fours.
SUGGEST: SILENT SEDITION (WIN) @ $4.50+, YOUNG AMAZON (EACH WAY) @ $35+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4 / 3, 4, 9 / F / 10), (F / 3, 4, 9 / F / 10), (F / F / 3, 4, 9 / 10), (3, 4 / 9 / F / F), (3, 4 / 9 / F / 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2 (updated at 9:05am AEDT): Now for the listed equivalent over 1400m, this time for the three year old colts and geldings. With MR INDIVIDUAL running Wednesday, a maximum of only 7 runners at most, which is a bit of a shame, hence note no third dividend. Expecting the Sydneysiders to be fighting this out with TAKEDOWN @ $4+ (SPORTSBET) top pick, just ahead of HOLLER @ $4+ (most operators). Main and possibly only danger SANTA ANA LANE who was very green last time, but looks to have above average ability. However $2.70+? Very short quote. Blowout hopes FLYING LIGHT @ $12+ and METALLIC CROWN @ $11+, best of the rest.
SUGGEST: TAKEDOWN (WIN) @ $4+, QUINELLA (1, 3) EXACTA (3 / 1, 6), FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / 1, 3 / 2, 5, 6 / 2, 5, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Group 2 Caulfield Sprint over 1000m and another smal field, currently with only 8 assembled, however very competitive and some real speedsters engaged here. Joe Pride goes head to head with BALL OF MUSCLE against two who were under his care not long ago in KURO and RAIN AFFAIR. Slight lean to BALL OF MUSCLE @ $3.20+ (SPORTSBET) ahead of old stablemate KURO @ $4.80+ (most operators). LUMOSTY and KINGLIKE the obvious main dangers.
SUGGEST: BALL OF MUSCLE (WIN) @ $3.20+, QUINELLA (1, 2) EXACTA (2 / 1) FIRST FOUR (2 / 1 / F / F), (2 / F / 1 / F), (2 / F / F / 1), (F / 1, 2 / 1, 2 / F), (F / F / 1, 2 / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
EARLY QUADDIE (added at 1:55pm AEDT):
1, 2, 3, 6 / 2, 3, 5, 10, 15 / 3, 6, 8, 10, 13 / 1, 2, 5, 6
Race 4: Now for the Group 3 Ethereal for the 3 year old fillies over 2000m, which will no doubt make the Oaks picture a lot clearer with several key chances involved here as you would expect. Surprisingly, there doesn’t look to be a stack of pace on paper, however with a big field assembled you would expect some to potentially race further forward than usual, especially if stables agree with our speed maps and think there may be a lake of pace up front. Regardless, have one on top here who in only two starts has shown she can race handy or come from the rear and that’s DAWN OF HOPE. Looks good each way value here at $8+ (BET365) and simply looks the safest bet in terms of getting the right run from the good gate, with others, including the short faves hoping for some extra pressure up front. Can also make a claim for JEZZABBA at $41+ (BET365) for secondary plays. Main dangers most definitely the two faves in HONESTA and AMBIENCE, while recommend throwing BANNATYNE into the multiples also at nice odds ($26+).
SUGGEST: DAWN OF HOPE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8+, JEZZABBA (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 5 / F / F / 10, 15), (F / 2, 3, 5 / F / 10, 15), (F / F / 2, 3, 5 / 10, 15), (boxed 2, 3, 5, 10, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Now for the open equivalent over 2000m, this time the Group 3 Caulfield Classic. Interestingly, SACRED EYE @ $4+ takes on the boys, instead of running in the Ethereal against own sex. And we think the girl might be too good for all the boys in what could hopefully be a double for Hayes/Dabernig with his two Oaks’ three year old fillies. Suggest a WIN only play. Can make a case for two at big odds here in *SCADDEN’S RUN* @ $67+ (SPORTSBET) and *ASSERTIVE STAR* @ $51+ (most operators), who we'll make our BEST LONGSHOTS of the day. Both will need some luck as set to be buried closer to the fence and normally get back, but at the price happy for them to be ridden for some luck and if the breaks open, big blowout on the cards. Main danger RAGNAAR @ $6.50+ who we potted successfully last time thinking he may have issues at Moonee Valley, will be better suited here, however similar to our top pick, both will be even better suited at Flemington. Key Derby and Oaks chances going head to head. Worth noting Blake Shinn jumps off LIZARD ISLAND to ride RAGNAAR here. Next best TIVACI who also has winning claims. $200k big 6 jackpot for Victorian customers with TAB.
SUGGEST: SACRED EYE (WIN) @ $4+, *SCADDEN’S RUN* (E/W) @ $67+, *ASSERTIVE STAR* (E/W) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (6, 10 / 13 / F / 8, 12), (6, 10, 13 / 6, 10, 13 / F / 8, 12), (F / 6, 10, 13 / 6, 10, 13 / 8, 12), (6, 10, 13 / F / 6, 10, 13 / 8, 12) (roving bankers 6, 10, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: And now for the Group 3 David Jones Cup and this actually looks pretty clear cut in my humble opinion. Expecting one of our faves in FENWAY @ $4.40+ (BETSTAR, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES) to battle this out with SADLER’S LAKE @ $4.60+ (most operators). Very slight lean towards FENWAY from the slightly better gate but only marginal. Suggest keeping this simple with WIN only plays on both runners. Will take saver first fours with STRATUM STAR (under the odds with the big weight on the quick backup), DIBAYANI (bad draw to make it tough), AWESOME ROCK (capable on his day and juicy $26+ here) and VELOX. Also suggest Lee and Shannon Hope doubles/trebles starting here with FENWAY into SABATINI / PITTSBURGH FLYER.
SUGGEST: FENWAY (WIN) @ $4.40+, SADLER’S LAKE (WIN) @ $4.60+, QUINELLA (5, 6), FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 8, 9 / 5, 6 / 5, 6 / F), (1, 2, 8, 9 / 5, 6 / F / F), MULTIES (FENWAY / SABATINI / PITTSBURGH FLYER) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 7: Group 3 Moonga over 1400m. Pace and tactics key here with many legitimate chances. Most would say it’s UNDER THE LOUVRE easy, or a tough one to predict. Concede UNDER THE LOUVRE is going to be hard to beat, however is rock bottom odds at the 1400m here which is always a slight concern in the final stages. All about timing with him and Zahra needs to go at exactly the right moment as he only has a short (yet brilliant) burst of acceleration. At the short odds, happy to leave for multies/savers/etc. Maybe we just can’t get last start out of our head, where he looked destined to win, before peaking on his run in the final 25m. Instead, prefer to play around a couple of double figure odds in SETINUM @ $13+ (LUXBET, BET365) and CHARLIE BOY @ $11+ price with LUXBET, BET365, CENTREBET and WILLIAM HILL Both good enough for this and set to get the right runs on paper. Expect SETINUM to be ridden more positively to take advantage of the good gate (2), while CHARLIE BOY will need a touch of luck from the wide gate (11) but we have our boy Blake Shinn aboard to take care of that and expect him to find a slot with cover just behind the leaders. Besides the fave, the other key dangers are ROCK STURDY who was originally our top pick, but just find him getting to an awkward spot on the fence, close to the read and needing a lot of luck from there, and VASHKA who saluted for Dungeon followers at a similar price last time out.
SUGGEST: SETINUM (EACH WAY) @ $13+, CHARLIE BOY (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (4, 5, 8 / F / F / 3, 9), (F / 4, 5, 8 / F / 3, 9), (F / F / 4, 5, 8 / 3, 9), (8 / F / F / 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: And now for a very competitive edition of the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes over 1400m for the mares. As usual with these middle distance mares event, not much between them on paper. CATKINS the obvious, always brave, but was disappointing by her lofty standards last time and despite conceding her the one to beat, do believe $3.00+ is rock bottom odds. Prefer to leave for multies/multiples/savers/etc. Then you can throw a blanket over a bunch of these, with tactics and pace in the race key. There doesn’t look to be much pace on paper and as a result leaning towards those who will be closer to the pace, led by **SCARLET BILLOWS** @ $15+ (most operators) who has normally been a backmarker, but am hoping they decide to go forward again from the good gate (4), after they decided to lead an extremely quick bunch (including arguably the fastest of all Chautauqua) down the straight and not be far away on the line. Enough for me to take the punt despite being a slight query at 1400m. Her run over the distance back in March tells us, it shouldn’t be an issue despite what the form guide tells you (3: 0-0-0). Given the odds, will make one of our BEST VALUE bets of the day. The other we’re expecting to be close to the pace and we can make a case for is GREGERS at a tidy $10+ price, with most operators. Best of rest SABATINI, who has been good for Dungeon followers in the past, would be top pick if there was more pace in the race, but still a winning chance on class alone. As mentioned earlier, suggest a play on Lee and Shannon Hope’s big three runners, similar to what we did Australia Cup day earlier this year, with great success.
SUGGEST: **SCARLET BILLOWS** (EACH WAY) @ $15+, GREGERS (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / F / F / 3, 13), (F / 2, 6 / F / 3, 13), (F / F / 2, 6 / 3, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9 (updated at 9:05am AEDT): And now for the feature, the world’ richest handicap race over 2400m and what a mouth-watering potential classic we have on the cards. Can’t recall this amount of depth, with world class overseas invaders, Derby winners, Oaks winners (both AJC and VRC), Sydney Cup winners, Melbourne Cup winners, Group 1 winners everywhere you look, even the 4th emergency was a last start dominant Group 1 winner, but not enough to make the final field. Gone are the days, where gun trainers ‘beat’ the handicapper, these days if you ‘beat’ the handicapper, you simply won’t make the field given the quality competing. Last year, we suggested plays on ADMI RAKTI, RISING ROMANCE and ARALDO (two of the three tragically not surviving Cup Day 2015), who ran 1st, 2nd and 4th with many cleaning up with multiples in particular. Fingers crossed for a similar result this year.
We suggested SET SQUARE at the start of the spring, and similar to Stay With Me last week, we won’t be suggesting for standalone bets here, as we are already super keen for her to produce here. Have taken her in several long term multies as suggested and will be trying to kick her home as hard as any other, despite suggestions below. If you are yet to play her way, we give her a great chance here, despite drawing a little wider than we would have liked. Will need some luck early, but as long as she gets cover, which you would expect (she goes from barrier 16 to 12 if all 4 emergencies come out), and every chance should that occur.
As communicated last night, we were super keen on QUEST FOR MORE @ $71+, but disappointingly has just missed the cut with no scratchings. Hadn’t been this bullish at one at such odds for a while, but not to be. Will leave the reasoning here to understand why we suggest a play at the Melbourne Cup @ $81+ now, which he should get a run (currently 27th). (Keen on one here in particular that we think is crazy overs, however we’re unfortunately sweating on a scratching in order to get into the field. The one in question is *QUEST FOR MORE* @ $71+ (UNIBET) who brilliantly won the Northumberland Plate two starts back, convincingly beating a horse by the name of Max Dynamite, who is one of the favourites for this year’s Melbourne Cup. Won’t know himself with 53kg, has the relevant turn of foot required to be sharp enough over the mile and a half, and interestingly Tommy Berry has kept himself double booked (currently booked to ride TRIP TO PARIS, but will jump off to ride *QUEST FOR MORE*, should he gain a run). Back the gelding now, and obviously get your money back should it fail to gain a run. If it does, will make our standout BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day, with a decent degree of confidence, especially for a $67+ pop. Regardless, suggest a longer term play at him for the Melbourne Cup @ $81+ with SPORTSBET.)
From there, finding it hard to split SNOW SKY @ $10+ with BET365 (form reads brilliantly once you put a line through his last start on an unsuitable soft track) and MONGOLIAN KHAN @ $5+ (BET365, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) after his slashing 2nd to Criterion last week, which should have him cherry ripe for this. Those two slightly ahead of RISING ROMANCE @ $12+ (PALMERBET). Given the odds, will look to play SNOW SKY (WIN) and RISING ROMANCE (WIN) and then MONGOLIAN KHAN at the lesser odds through more multiples and multies into any others you like throughout the day. Big pools, normally equates to inflated multiples, so suggest taking a few even with small percentagesand as we’ve seen in recent months, even 1% of a small fortune, provides a very good return. Others for the multiples include PROTECTIONIST (who we can see putting in a much improved effort which will have them talking about back to back Melbourne Cups), so suggest a long term play for him for the Melbourne Cup also prior to them jumping here @ $34+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). Must include the two Japanese, the Waller trio and VOLKSTOK ‘N”BARELL in wider multiples.
SUGGEST: SNOW SKY (WIN) @ $10+, RISING ROMANCE (WIN) @ $11+, EXACTA (6 / 2, 14), FIRST FOUR (F / 2 6 14 / 2 6 14 / F), (6 / 1 3 5 8 9 10 11 / 2 14 17 / F), (6 / 1 2 3 5 8 9 10 11 14 / 1 2 3 5 8 9 10 11 14 / 12 17), (2 6 14 / 2 6 14 / 2 6 14 / 17), (2 6 14 / 2 6 14 17 / 2 6 14 17 / 1 2 3 5 8 9 10 11 12 14), (boxed 2, 6, 14, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
SUGGEST (LONG TERM): QUEST FOR MORE (MELBOURNE CUP – E/W) @ $81+, PROTECTIONIST MELBOURNE CUP – E/W) @ $34+
Race 10: And now for the lucky last with the listed Alinghi Stakes over 1100m for the fillies and mares. Good finish to the card, but extremely competitive once again. Looks to be good speed on paper and as a result, like two who we expect to get back and be hitting the line hard late. Be sure to confirm that the track is playing without a bias (plenty of time to verify) and as long as backmarkers are getting their chance, then we like **PITTSBURGH FLYER** (another who has been very good to Dungeon followers in the past) @ $11+ (most operators) and BROOK ROAD @ $5.50+ with BET365. Given the odds for **PITTSBURGH FLYER**, will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day.
SUGGEST: **PITTSBURGH FLYER** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, BROOK ROAD (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, TRIFECTA (roving bankers 5, 7 / F) FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 5, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
EARLY QUADDIE (added at 1:55pm AEDT):
1, 2, 3, 6 / 2, 3, 5, 10, 15 / 3, 6, 8, 10, 13 / 1, 2, 5, 6
Average odds $20.17+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: SCARLET BILLOWS @ $15+, PITTSBURGH FLYER @ $11+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: SCADDEN’S RUN @ $67+, ASSERTIVE STAR @ $51+