ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2015
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with good weather in Sydney, so currently expecting a drier track, currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface. Penetrometer currently 4.97, however do note there is a 60% chance of showers late afternoon, with the possibility of a storm. Keep note for the later races in particular.
RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT) Back to Royal Randwick after we nailed the card last week in a day we won’t forget in a long time. Key to our success was us successfully predicting a distinct lack of tempo in many races, and the fact that there would be no disadvantage to be on pace, closer to the fence. Expecting very much the same here with the rail out to +9M. As always, keep an eye on early races for best guide and then tempo/speed map in each race the key.
Race 1: Another tricky (or easy) start with the babies (just turned 2YOs), with many competing for the first time. We normally prefer to leave these, but really liked what we saw from PYX CHAMBER and from gate 3 should get the gun run and be hard to beat. $3.80+ seems a decent price with Clipperton aboard and suggest a play on a WIN only basis to kick start the day. Be wary of any significant drift, as wlel as any big firmers elsewhere. Saver first four with any significant firmer to win , PYX CHAMBER 2nd, FIELD for 3rd, 4th.
SUGGEST: PYX CHAMBER (WIN) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (<Any firmer(s) in market> / 3 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Benchmark 72 for the three year olds over 1600m. Tricky affair with most runners with some legitimate winning claims. Made trickier by the fact that several of these runners have raced both handy and back in recent times, hence tempo and tactics will be key. Slight lean, FEAST FOR EYES on the basis he can be on pace and be given the opportunity to dictate, kick on the turn, and be hard to run down. $6.50+ with BETSTAR, BOOKMAKER.COM.aU, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, LADBROKES and PALMERBET. Note no third dividend. Stablemate MONTAUK the main danger, but most runners with legitimate claims in an even affair.
SUGGEST: FEAST FOR EYES (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, EXACTA (1, 3), FIRST FOUR (1 / F / 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 3: Benchmark 92 over the mile and another competitive, even affair. Expecting FOREIGN PRINCE to lead comfortably here and give them something to chase @ $5+ (most operators). Big watch on **LADY LE FAY** on debut in Australia, like her very quiet trial where she sat wide, was asked to do nothing, but still hit the line nicely against some decent opposition. That alone is enough for us to throw her into the mix here as a good winning chance and top pick given the price. $7.50+ (BET365) looks a great each way bet. Will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger GOOD PROJECT, but as usual ‘unders’ at a skinny $3+ price.
SUGGEST: **LADY LE FAY** (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FOREIGN PRINCE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5+, FIRST FOUR (6 / 4 / F / 7), (roving bankers 4, 6, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: And now a Class 2 and these look a legitimate class 2 lot. Great experience for the owners and connections though to get a taste of the big smoke at famous Royal Randwick. Enjoy the day if you happen to be one of them. Again, doesn’t look to be any major pace on paper, however decent field and a few of these might get overly excited and run more positively than usual/potential to over race. Think *ONEMOREGYPSY* trialled good enough for something like this, as she trialled with city class runners and didn’t disgrace herself. Better still she railed and led and held her own late. $31+ with BET365 is a super price and as a result will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Also want a WIN only wager here on FLASH IN THE DARK at a more than respectable $7.50+ with most operators. Finally, blowout hope on a secondary basis to DASHIE DE LUXE @ $34+ with SPORTSBET.
SUGGEST: *ONEMOREGYPSY* (EACH WAY) @ $34+, FLASH IN THE DARK (WIN) @ $7.50+, DASHIE DE LUXE (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $34+, FIRST FOUR (F / 13 / F / 10, 14) (roving bankers 10, 13, 14 / F), TRIFECTA (roving bankers 10, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 5: Benchmark 83 over 1400m and looks to be some more tempo here that should suit the two at the top of the weights in TELEPATHIC and BERRIMILLA. Important as always to monitor earlier races to ensure backmarkers are at least getting their chance and if so think these two will be fighting it out with a lean towards TELEPATHIC @ $4.20+ (most operators) who has always promised a lot and time to start delivering. BERRIMILLA an absolute model of consistency, racing as well as ever and a nice $7+ price each way price.
SUGGEST: TELEPATHIC (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, BERRIMILLA (EACH WAY) @ $7+, QUINELLA (1, 2), EXACTA (1 / 2), FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 2 / 1, 2 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 6: Listed 3 year old Brian Crowley over 1200m. Keen on **COUNTERATTACK** here with the blinkers on. His predecessors Red Tracer and Shellscrape loved this gear change and have a feeling this colt will too. $6.50+ a great each way price with BET365. Given the odds, will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Doubt that will last. HELLBENT the main danger but rock bottom odds at $2+. FLIPPANT is good enough, trialled average, putting many off, and interestingly they haven’t gone with blinkers which would have made us keen, despite the trial. Keep safe, as best is very good. Good race with many potential up and comers.
SUGGEST: **COUNTERATTACK** (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 5, 7 / 1 / F / F), (9 / 1 / F / F), (F / 1, 9 / 1, 9 / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 7: The listed Club Lightning over 1100m and there looks a serious hot tempo up front. Been waiting for CRAFTINESS to run around again as I rate very high, however $3.10+ with a hot tempo on paper, from barrier 11, screams big alarm bells. Can win, is the best horse in the race in my humble opinion, but will need a lot of luck and just can’t entertain the price. Instead think better value lies with RUNWAY STAR (much better odds were available, opened $21!) but still backable at $9+. Good luck to you if you snapped up the $21, as that was massive overs. The other two who will be best suited by the tempo are SURE AND FAST @ $8.50+ (BET365) and FONTELINA @ $19+ with most operators. Probably well past its best, but doesn’t need to be in this. Not sure how it’s going (no trials, decent break) but respect on class alone at the price. Happy to play all three on a WIN only basis given their respective prices, in the order provided. ATMOSPHERICAL was disappointing last time in Melbourne, but possibly ridden too close to the pace and can improve if ridden quieter here. ELOPING has blinkers off for new stable so a chance if ridden quieter also at $26+, and ARTLEE another hard to read but good enough. Throw them in the multiples at odds. Extremely hard race but banking on pace knocking out a lot of the faves, so hopefully we can secure a slice of a big first four/multiple by throwing a few in at odds.
SUGGEST: RUNWAY STAR (WIN) @ $9+, SURE AND FAST (WIN) @ $8.50+, FONTELINA (WIN) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (7, 9, 11 / 3, 10, 12 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Listed event over the mile and a half and will keep this nice and simple. BEATEN UP the clear top pick. D-day today, needs to be winning this @ $3+, with LUXBET and SPORTSBET. 60.5kg the query, but carries weight well and needs to get the job done here to get the monkey off the back of being a non-winner. Suggest a WIN only play here. It’s been a while, but think he’ll get it done. JUNOOB the main danger and at $8.50+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET), suggest an each way play. While, blowout hope here to *TREMEC* at $61+ with BET365. Secondary each way play there. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
SUGGEST: BEATEN UP (WIN) @ $3+, JUNOOB (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, *TREMEC* (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1 / F / 3, 7) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 9: We finish with a Group 3 for the mares over 1200m. Competitive as usual with the mares and not much between them on face value. Hoping for a solid tempo, and assuming we get that, and that the track is giving those off the pace their chance (we’ll know by now) then suggest plays on SULTRY FEELING @ $7+ (most operators) despite the wide gate. Will go back to the rear, hence important backmarkers are getting their chance, pace dependant. Best value I think is with KRISTY LEE who trialled nicely and can hopefully top off a big day for Chris Waller and his team as it looks like I’ve landed on a few of them across the card. $17+ with LUXBET and SPORTSBET a very nice each way price.
SUGGEST: SULTRY FEELING (EACH WAY) @ $7+, KRISTY LEE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (F / 6 / F / 5), (roving bankers 5, 6 / F), TRIFECTA (roving bankers 5, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds of $13.83+ per suggested runner.
**BEST VALUE**: LADY LE FAY @ $7.50+, COUNTERATTACK @ $6.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ONEMOREGYPSY @ $34+, TREMEC @ $61+