ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 3, 2015
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with good weather in Sydney, so currently expecting a drier track despite it currently rated a GOOD (4). Penetrometer currently 5.13.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Royal Randwick after we raced here two weeks’ back on September 19, when the rail was in the TRUE position. Given the expected improved track and rail out +3M, not expecting any major disadvantage on pace. As always, keep an eye on early races for guide and tempo in each race key.
Race 1: Hard start with the babies (just turned 2YOs) competing for the first time and given the early nature of these 2YO events, only sufficient time for 1 trial in most cases, 2 at the most. CAPITALIST looked fantastic winning his trial, but not in the game to suggest a 2YO over other unraced 2YOs at $1.85+. Watch and learn.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: And now for the 2YO fillies where I have a vested interest moving forward after purchasing a slice of a 2YO filly in recent times. Hopefully we’ll see her soon (hopefully 2 weeks away) if all goes well. As a result, have seen a few of these trials and did see ALBERT’S LASS looking like a little speed machine and at $21+ worth a dabble each way here. However, that isn’t going to eventuate as she is scratched, which is a shame. Did like the way CALLIOPE won her trial and the massive gaps all the way through the field behind her. Looks set for a big debut, however not interested in taking $2.15+ standalone. Could be one for multies. Plenty of guesswork, for the most part this is another watch and learn.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 3: With the babies out the way, we now move to listed race over the Randwick mile. And this is quite simply very tough. Not much between all those in the market. Minimal pace on paper, gives WUDANG MOUNTAIN a good chance to bounce back, while AMBIENCE did look good last time to warrant favouritism here, similarly LAUCALA. Actually, think best value lies with one who finished well behind the fave last time in **SCHOPENHAUER** who had form as a 2YO and has been gelded, with a change of trainer (formerly Danny O’Brien) seemingly doing the trick. Like the way he finished in recent trial which should have been ready for this. Also worth noting he went back last start from a bad gate, so there’s the opportunity to be ridden more positively here which I think enhances chances further. At $14+ (LUXBET, BET365, UNIBET), very good each way bet and as a result will make one of our BEST VALUE bets of the day. Possible savers plays with the three mentioned earlier utilising first four strategy.
SUGGEST: **SCHOPENHAUER** (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 5 / F / F / 10), (F / 1, 4, 5 / F / 10), (F / F / 1, 4, 5 / 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Group 2 Roman Consul over 1200m and EXOSPHERE all the rage and rightly so after being absolutely devastating since returning as a 3YO…not that he wasn’t a top class 2YO anyhow. At level weights, with James McDonald aboard from barrier 3, only bad luck or something going amiss should stand in his way of another impressive victory. If you dig deep and search for a flaw, there is still that slight query on a firmer track, hence on the current GOOD (4) there shouldn’t be any worries, but if we do get an upgrade to a 3 and there is any apparent market concerns, then tread carefully. In saying that, you wouldn’t think John O’Shea and the Godolphin juggernaut would be taking risks with this very valueable colt. $1.60+ with BET365 in this instance is good enough value, and could be a day for a nice treble with a few looking very hard to beat on the card. For multiples, the Waller duo of COUNTERATTACK (who saluted for Dungeon followers last time at a tidy price) and JAPONISME (after a short break) we expect to fill the placings.
SUGGEST: EXOSPHERE (WIN) @ $1.60+, TRIFECTA/FIRST FOUR (2 / 5, 7 / 5, 7 / F), RUNNING DOUBLE (EXOSPHERE/TERRAVISTA) TREBLE (EXOSPHERE/ TERRAVISTA/COMPLACENT) (CONFIDENCE 80%)
Race 5: Group 2 Premiere Stakes over 1200m which brings about the return of TERRAVISTA one of the our/the world’s best sprinters looking to reclaim his crown as ‘the best’ after conceding the title to CHAUTAUQUA in the Autumn. Been trialling brilliantly and interestingly they elected to not run on a softer track in the Shorts two weeks back. Tells me they are not looking to take any chances this time in. Another much shorter than we usual tip, however another that looks a standout, with the only query the barrier as he’ll jump from the outside stall. Impact reduced with only 8 starters, and with gun hoop Hugh Bowman aboard, so wil be interesting where they settle. They’ll make him earn it, but think he can get the job done even if he happens to be caught a little wide. $2.20+ with most operators good enough value in my opinion.
SUGGEST: TERRAVISTA (WIN) @ $2.20+, RUNNING DOUBLE (TERRAVISTA/COMPLACENT) (CONFIDENCE 75%)
Race 6: Group 3 Craven Plate over 2000m. Dare say this is a Dungeon first and not necessarily proud of it, but we’re suggesting a third consecutive hot favourite in a row. We’re always striving for juicy value, but as we keep re-iterating value can only be worked out based on each individual race and on this occasion the three shorter priced faves still represent value in our opinion, given they are standout top picks. Fingers crossed the cards fall our way. In saying that, our strategy is always lower risk/high return betting, hence don’t do anything crazy, bet within your means and potentially look at alternatives to standalone large bets, such as doubles, trebles, et to help minimise risk. If you hadn’t guessed already, the suggested play here is COMPLACENT @ $2.20+ with BET365, mainly on the back of very little pace on paper, which should allow James McDonald to dictate up front and be extremely hard to catch. Just need to ensure leaders are getting their chance and by race 6 we’ll definitely know.
SUGGEST: COMPLACENT (WIN) @ $2.20+ (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 7: And now for the first of three consecutive Group 1s, starting with the feature, the Epsom handicap over the famous Randwick mile. No surprise we think **KIRRAMOSA** is value after spruiking for a few weeks now, originally at $34+ which has been available up until the final field was confirmed. Actually surprised, $17+ (BET365, PALMERBET) is still available and think that is still very much good value if you haven’t backed her previously as suggested. We obviously have, as well as including her in some massive long term multies, so will be cheering her home and have based our suggestions below on the basis that you have already backed her also, but have listed just for those who haven’t. Will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day regardless, but no need to back her again if you’ve already snapped up $34s. Of the rest, think the market is actually pretty spot on, however do think WINX is rock bottom odds at $2.90+. Huge chance and a must saver bet or possible one out in quaddie option, but do think better value lies with SADLER’S LAKE @ $9.50+ and LUCIA VALENTINA @ $9+.
SUGGEST: **KIRRAMOSA** (EACH WAY) @ $17+, SADLER’S LAKE (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, LUCIA VALENTINA (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 11 / F / F / 9), (F / 2, 4, 11 / F / 9), (F / F / 2, 4, 11 / 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: And now for the next Group 1, this time the Coolmore Flight Stakes over the mile also. Bit of jockey merry-go-round action going on, which is interesting and this looks one that could be won and lost with the jockeys, with tactics and pace key. If the track is at all favouring leaders and/or they allow SPEAK FONDLY to have her own way up front (interestingly pace could come from stablemates, hence may decide to look after each other up front?) then she is clearly the one to beat. However, if the above isn’t the case, then she is most definitely a risk at the short $2.40+ price, first try at the mile. As a result, will leave for savers/multiples/first four strategies/etc. Another you could play one out in a skinny quaddie as a saver. Instead, did like the win last time by PEARLS and despite others having excuses, actually don’t think she had the clearest of runs in the straight also, copping a little bit of the backlash from the PERIGNON & KIMBERLEY STAR tussle, adding further merit to the win. Just need some pace on up front or the race could be over after the turn. $7+ here with BETSTAR, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU and LADBROKES, nice each way value.
SUGGEST: PEARLS (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (1 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: We finish with a third consecutive Group 1, this time the Metropolitan over 2400m. MAGIC HURRICANE is the hot pot here and although we concede she is a big chance here, don’t think she represents any value at the short $3.80+ price tag. Just didn’t like the way she finished last time when he got past Preferment clearly and then wasn’t tough/fit enough late. If it was purely fitness, then yes maybe she just needed the extra run, but given the price, willing to risk given the thinking she may struggle to run out the trip. Have one on top here who doesn’t win out of turn, but think he’s finally found the race to get him back into the winner’s stalls. We’re getting $7.50+ simply because of terrible win record in recent years, but BEATEN UP is flying and looks set to give this a massive shake. Will make our main primary bet here. Then like the new up and comer, who might be here a little early but we were on last time and loved what we saw with MAURUS, so think $20+ (CROWNBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, UNIBET) is a great each way price and a chance at odds here. HAVANA COOLER the other over the odds @ $14+ (BET365) and worthy of a secondary investment also.
SUGGEST: BEATEN UP (E/W - PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, MAURUS (E/W - SECONDARY) @ $20+, HAVANA COOLER (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds of $9.45+ per suggested runner.
**BEST VALUE**: SCHOPENHAUER @ $14+, KIRRAMOSA @ $17+