24 October 2015 (Cox Plate Day at Moonee Valley)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

MOONEE VALLEY

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2015

 

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer currently reading 4.68, so currently looking at a GOOD (4) track.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Moonee Valley after Friday night’s Manikato Stakes card when the rail was in the TRUE position. Expecting/hoping for an even track, with early races and speed maps/pace in race your best guide.

 

Race 1 (updated at 8:55am AEDT): We start one of the great days on the racing calendar with the two year olds over 1000m. Never easy with the youngsters, but did see three work on Tuesday and each either impressed or are at juicy odds here to be worthy of a dabble. Best of those we saw was EMPHATICALLY who we’ll have on top here in a very tricky affair. $9.00+ with BETSTAR, LUXBET, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES and PALMERBET, worth a play. The other who worked well was DELTA D’OR @ $41+ (SPORTSBET, BET365, LUXBET).

SUGGEST: EMPHATICALLY (WIN/E/W - PRIMARY) @ $9+, DELTA D’OR (E/W) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (F / 14 / F / 4), (F / F / 14 / 4), (F / F / F / 4, 14) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2 (updated at 8:55am AEDT): Another edition of the City Jeep 955m dash and as usual there looks to be plenty of pace on paper. We successfully tipped GRANE last night (as well as originally tipping here) so time to re-assess. Looking to have a play around MAGNUS REIGN first up for Darren Weir at a juicy $13+ price with LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU and BETSTAR. Would be suited by hot pace up front, so fingers crossed the on pacers make each other work and set it up for the swoopers. Main dangers the obvious in DIAMOND OASIS and TAWTEEN.

SUGGEST: MAGNUS REIGN (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (2, 6 / F / F / 7), (F / 2, 6 / F / 7), (F / F / 2, 6 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Group 2 three year old fillies’ classic over 1600m. Very even affair with not much between many of these in my opinion, despite what the market may suggest. Doesn’t look to be a heap of pace on paper here, so pace and tactics key. Slight lean at the $9+ (BET365) price with THAMES COURT with champ jockey Hugh Bowman aboard. Would have no issues sitting right on the pace and hopefully pinch a break on the turn from several backmarkers who are short in the market here. Main dangers OUR POPPETTE, DON’T DOUBT MAMMA and SILENT SEDITION.

SUGGEST: THAMES COURT (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 9 / F / F / 8), (F / 1, 3, 9 / F / 8), (F / F / 1, 3, 9 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Group 3 for the three year olds over 1200m. Once again pace and tactics the key here, with good jockeys worth their weight in gold. Not a stack of pace on paper here, and if that eventuates, happy to play around two here in MAWAAHIBB @ $3+ (most operators) on a WIN only basis, and one then a longshot who worked well at Tuesday’s ‘Breakfast with the Best’ in *VON VACHERON* at a big $51+ price (BET365). Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: MAWAAHIBB (WIN) @ $3+, *VON VACHERON* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 9), (F / F / 3 / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5 (updated at 8:55am AEDT): Listed Crockett Stakes over 1200m. SERENE MAJESTY the obvious and the one to beat, but rock bottom odds here at $2.90+. Might be looking for further now and may go back from the wide gate. As a result, willing to risk somewhat and save with multies/savers. Instead, think best value lies with **MISS GIDGET** at a much better than expected $12+ price tag with BET365. Looks a great each way price, despite the wide gate and should be able to cross easily enough and sit on the pace. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in SERENE MAJESTY, as well as HAYBAH, HARLEM RIVER and LAKE GENEVA.

SUGGEST: **MISS GIDGET** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4, 5 / F / F / 6), (F / 1, 3, 4, 5 / F / 6), (F / F / 1, 3, 4, 5 / 6), (F / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6), (1, 3, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)  

 

Race 6: Group 2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup over 2500m. Good, competitive, even race. Pace and tactics key again with only a moderate pace on paper. As a result, keen to play around two in **TAIYOO** @ $13+ (BET365) who looks excellent each way value, and as a result will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Taken a while to get to full fitness this campaign, but reckon he’s now there and gets to best trip. Just ahead of BOHEMIAN LILY @ $7+ (most operators) who similarly has taken a while to get to peak fitness and the right trip, but ticks both boxes here and no excuses. Main dangers BIG MEMORY (who worked very well Tuesday), ESCADO (also worked well Tuesday and racing in great form), THE UNITED STATES and BONDEIGER.

SUGGEST: **TAIYOO** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, BOHEMIAN LILY (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 7, 10 / F / F / 5, 11), (2, 4, 7, 10 / 11 / F / 5), (2, 4, 7, 10 / 11 / F / F), (F / 2, 4, 7, 10 / F / 5, 11), (F / F / 2, 4, 7, 10 / 5, 11), (F / 11 / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 7 (updated at 8:55am AEDT):  And now for the Group 2 Vase for the three year olds over the famous 2040m. Great race, very competitive once again with many legitimate chances. Tricky part if grand final for several runners here comes on either Derby day or Oaks day, so how much focus is on winning today? Gonna take a punt on one at odds in here in SHARDS at a tidy $12+ price (WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET, TOM WATERHOUSE). Got polaxed last start and as a result landed close to the rear, which was not where they wanted to be. They’ve paid a late entry for the Derby, so the stable are obviously confident he’ll run a strong 2040m+ and gun hoop McDonald to take advantage of the good gate (3) and be right on the pace in another race that also looks moderate on paper. Liked ASSERTIVE STAR @ $101+ as a blowout hope, but scratched again, same thing happened two weeks’ back they may be battling a few issues there. Main dangers TARZINO (flying, hard to beat), PASADENA GIRL (class filly), JAMEKA (always consistent), SOVEREIGN NATION and TULLY who will give them something to chase and should be allowed to dictate up front. Deep race.

SUGGEST: SHARDS (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 8, 10, 11 / 2, 4, 8, 10, 11 / 2, 4, 8, 10, 11 / 1, 9), (4, 10, 11 / F / F / 1, 9), (F / 4, 10, 11 / F / 1, 9), (F / F / 4, 10, 11 / 1, 9), (roving banker 1, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Now for a very good edition of the Group 2 Crystal Mile. LUCKY HUSSLER all the rage and rightly so, but $2.15+ rock bottom odds in a race like this. Given the extremely short price, prefer to play through savers/multies/even a one out quaddie leg instead of a big go standalone, which isn’t our way. Instead, prefer to play around a few at juicy prices, all coming out of the Epsom. HOOKED is one we’ve had some luck with over time and gets some weight relief against rivals from Epsom here. Worked well Tuesday as communicated and $18+ (most operators) a good each way price. SONS OF JOHN is an ultra-consistent galloper and similarly $18+ (BET365) nice each way price, while clear BEST LONGSHOT of the day is *MALICE* @ $67+ (BET365) after working well Tuesday following good run in Epsom and should be in/around the box seat here. Main danger the obvious in LUCKY HUSSLER, ahead of TURN ME LOOSE for the red hot Murray Baker / Opie Bosson combination. Big watch on the unknown BOW CREEK on Australian debut.

SUGGEST: HOOKED (EACH WAY) @ $18+, SONS OF JOHN (EACH WAY) @ $18+, *MALICE* @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (1, 11 / F / F / 2, 9, 10), (F / 1, 11 / F / 2, 9, 10), (F / F / 1, 11 / 2, 9, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9 (updated at 8:55am AEDT): Now for the big one, the weight for age championship of Australasia, the W.S Cox Plate. And what a ripping edition of the great race, with as much depth all the way through the field as we can ever recall. Rank outsiders in a capacity field are PORNICHET and MOURINHO and I think that says it all. Many, many, many winning chances, have said it many times in this summary already on such an even day, but pace and tactics key. You could do worse than make your predictions simply off who you think is the best jockey(s) given the even nature of the race. Also worth noting a $1.5 million first four guaranteed pool for Victorian TAB customers. We tipped KERMEDEC and CRITERION at the start of the spring and both are in this up to their eyeballs. Hopefully you took the early odds in multies, etc and can simply let them ride today for a nice result. Our best result of the two is KERMEDEC, however as you’ll see below give a lean the other way today….but only just.

Given the depth, need to be ruthless with trying to land on suggested bets and that’s what has happened here. Focus is around those off the pace and ideally those who are proven at BEYOND 2040m. If the pace is hot, and we’re hoping it is (if it isn’t we’re in trouble) then stamina comes into play late. As a result, we’ve narrowed it down to CRITERION (our pick last year, who we’re sticking with) @ $6.50+ (CROWNBET, BET365), WINX (is she a freak and we just don’t know it yet? We’ll find out today) @ $6+ (most operators), ahead of the best value (and forgotten runner) in the race HARTNELL at a very juicy $17+ with most operators. Must respect the Waller stable and all runners, as well as the internationals, but you can’t have them all so spread across multiples/first fours as the first four could be massive. Similar to last week with Mongolian Khan, might spread WINX more throughout multies/multiples given the shorter odds, but feel free to pick and choose as you like. Shapes as an absolute classic!

SUGGEST: CRITERION (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, HARTNELL (EACH WAY) @ $17+, TRIFECTA (14 / F / F), FIRST FOUR (14 / 1 / F / 4), (14 / 1, 4 / F / F), (14 / F / 1, 4 / F), (14 / F / F / 1, 4), (roving bankers 8, 10, 13 / F), (roving bankers 11, 12, 14 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 10 (updated at 9:20am AEDT): And we finishing with a Group 3 for the mares over the mile. Mares over a mile, always very competitive and very even, however always value on offer. Tough finish slight lean towards BALLET SUITE who can bounce back here and suggest a WIN only play here at $6+ with BET365. I think GIRL GUIDE is value @ $15+ with LUXBET, PALMERBET and CROWNBET, can take a more forward position today wwith the better gate. While, inclined to dabble on DO YOU REMEMBER @ $51+ (BET365) despite the unknowns, but interesting placement by Moody despite no public trials since April when she went okay. Wide race, could be a FIELD job in the last leg of your quaddie. Main danger CORONATION SHALLAN who I’d include in multies/savers at a tidy enough $8+. AZKADELLIA all the rage a big winning chance, but a touch of under in my opinion is such an even field. Another for multies/savers if you’re keen.

SUGGEST: BALLET SUITE (WIN) @ $6+, GIRL GUIDE (EACH WAY) @ $15+, DO YOU REMEMBER (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (F / 10 / F / 2, 3), (5, 12 / 2, 3, 10 / F / F), (5, 12 / F / 2, 3, 10 / F), (5, 12 / F / F / 2, 3, 10), (F / F / 2, 3, 5, 10, 12 / 2, 3, 5, 10, 12) (roving bankers 5, 10, 12 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a very juicy $20.47+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: MISS GIDGET @ $12+, TAIYOO @ $13+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: VON VACHERON @ $51+, MALICE @ $67+

#happypunting