24 October 2015 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2015

 

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with improving weather forecast after rain earlier in the week. Penetrometer currently 5.67, so looking at an improving SOFT (6) surface at this stage.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT) Back to Royal Randwick again after weekly racing here in recent weeks, last week with the rail out +9M. As always, keep an eye on early races for best guide and then tempo/speed map in each race the key.

 

Race 1: Terrible race after the scratchings. Steer clear. Not sure I’m a fan of these inflated weight scales!

SUGGEST:  NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Watch and learn with the two year olds.

SUGGEST:  NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Might be respect, but can’t go past CASINO DANCER again here, even though there’s no $61 on offer here. Was the pinnacle of an enormous day at Randwick two weeks back when we went 7/7 and tipped this girl at $61! $6+ on offer with SPORTSBET which is a decent enough price. Main dangers WINE TALES (the class) and FOREIGN PRINCE who should get a soft lead here. Hoping Costin settles just behind the leader and pinches a race win lead from WINE TALEs and co. No third dividend with only 7 runners.

SUGGEST: CASINO DANCER (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7 / 5 / F / F), 6, 7 / F / 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 4: DREAM CHOICE was very good to us last time after he saluted as our BEST VALUE of the day at $16s on ‘that day’ but jumps up in weight here and much shorter odds. Can’t go past HAPPY CLAPPER here after an extremely impressive trial which tells me he is absolutely flying! $2.70+ good enough on the nose here. KASIANO LAD the man danger as illustrated by the market.

SUGGEST: HAPPY CLAPPER (WIN) @ $2.70+, FIRST FOUR (5 / 6 / F / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%)

 

Race 5: Average race on an average card at Randwick today. Think NOBLE JOEY @ $4.60+ (BET365) should be an average lot here as long as there is half decent support in the market and looks at least 80%+ wound up when we see him in the yard. Unseen for a while, no public trials, but taking on trust on the back of impressive first two wins from as many starts.

SUGGEST: NOBLE JOEY (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, FIRST FOUR (F / 11 / F / F), (F / F / F / 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 6: This looks a two horse race and finding it very hard to split WUDANG MOUNTAN and HAND FROM ABOVE both around the $3.60+ mark. Play around the two winning, two only for the quaddie and play through multies.

SUGGEST: WUDANG MOUNTAIN (WIN) $3.60+, HAND FROM ABOVE (WIN) @ $3.60+, QUINELLA/EXACTA (1, 2), FIRST FOUR (1, 2 / 1, 2 / F / F), (F / 1, 2 / 1, 2 / F)   (CONFIDENCE 50%)

QUADDIE (#1): 1, 2 / FIELD / 10 / 2, 3, 14

QUADDIE (#2): 1, 2 / 7, 9 / FIELD / 2, 3, 14

QUADDIE (#3): 1, 2 / 7, 9 / 10 / 2, 3, 14

 

Race 7: Very hard race, unless the fave gets some luck and proves too good. MR MANHATTAN @ $2.80+ drawn the outside gate which makes this very interesting. Pace and tactics key as a result. Although, I concede he may simply be too good, prefer to take the much safer option with one at odds here in **I CAN ROCK** @ $14+ with most operators. Great each way value. Throw a blanket over them from there. Suggest one narrow quaddie with the two mentioned and then another fat one with the FIELD. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **I CAN ROCK** (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (7 / F / F / 9), (F / 7 / F / 9), (F / F / 7 / 9), TRIFECTA (F / 9 / F), (F / F / 9) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 8: Finally time to SCHERZOSO to step up and get into the winner’s stalls and think today is the day.$4.20+ (CROWNBET) a nice enough price on a WIN only basis with first four savers around main dangers HERNE’S OAK, SBKHAT and DANJEU.

SUGGEST: SCHERZOSO (WIN) @ $4.20+ FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 8 / 10 / F / F), (1, 4, 8 / 10 / 1, 4, 8 / F), (1, 4, 8 / 10 / 1, 4, 8 / 1, 4, 8), (F / 10 / 1, 4, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 9: Interesting finish with some seriously backed here into very short quotes. None more so that HARLEM LADY, crunched from $12 into $4! Concede a good chance, but much better value on offer for more proven stablemates in **ROCKOLICIOUS** @ $10+ (WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET, TOM WATERHOUSE) and ALL CERISE @ $12+ with WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET, TOM WATERHOUSE and BET365. Slight lean **ROCKOLICIOUS** so will make our BEST VALUE bets of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: **ROCKOLICIOUS** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, ALL CERISE (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 2, 3, 14 / F), (F / 2, 3, 14 / F / 2, 3, 14), (F / F / 2, 3, 14 / 2, 3, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds of $6.74+ per suggested runner.

**BEST VALUE**: ROCKOLICIOUS @ $10+, I CAN ROCK @ $14+

QUADDIE (#1): 1, 2 / FIELD / 10 / 2, 3, 14

QUADDIE (#2): 1, 2 / 7, 9 / FIELD / 2, 3, 14

QUADDIE (#3): 1, 2 / 7, 9 / 10 / 2, 3, 14

 

#happypunting