28 October 2015 (Bendigo Cup Day)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

BENDIGO

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2015

 

Racing at BENDIGO with the penetrometer currently reading 5.17, and with fine weather forecast for Bendigo Cup day, we’re currently looking at a GOOD (4) track.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to Bendigo for their showcase event, the Group 3 Bendigo Cup over 2400m. Rail in the TRUE position. Expecting/hoping for an even track, no major disadvantage on pace, near the fence given the fine weather, but as usual be sure to monitor early races and speed maps/pace in race for best guide.

 

Race 1: Poor race, maiden over the mile and this looks a bit of a raffle. Pace/tempo key as leader if allowed to dictate could be hard to run down. Steer clear, watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Maiden over 1000m and not much easier here. Far too much guesswork and prefer to watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Maiden over 1400m. Doesn’t look to be a stack of pace on paper and as a result think best value lies with REZAK @ $5.50+ (most operators), ahead of LADY SLEVOIR @ $13+ with LUXBET. Deep race with several legitimate winning chances throughout.

SUGGEST: REZAK (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, LADY SLEVOIR (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Benchmark 90 over 1400m. MIGHTY LIKE @ $3.30+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) set to get the best run of the main chances and as long as he’s able to get a soft enough run up front, should pinch a break on the main chances on the turn and be hard to run down. Suggest a WIN only play, and note only two place dividends due to lack of numbers.

SUGGEST: MIGHTY LIKE (WIN) @ $3.30+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Benchmark 64 over 1100m. Another poor race with far too much guesswork, especially with two right in the market, first up after long breaks. Steer clear, watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 6: Benchmark 70 over 1100m and a better standard race despite the rating. Slight lean ANTARCTIC MISSILE who looks to get the gun run and be hard to catch over the 1100m. $3.60+ decent enough value in this, with each of BETSTAR, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL and LADBROKES.

SUGGEST: ANTARCTIC MISSILE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $3.60+ (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 7:  Benchmark 78 over 1100m. Didn’t mind **KING BUDDY** at the Valley Friday night at a big price and as a result must like the value on offer in this easier field. $9+ on offer with SPORTSBET, excellent each way value. Given the odds will make BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger stablemate LONHTIME as well as IMPULSIVE SPIRIT now with the red hot Hayes & Dabernig stable.

SUGGEST: **KING BUDDY** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (10, 11 / F / F / 6), (F / 10, 11 / F / 6), (F / F / 10, 11 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 8: Now for Bendigo’s showcase, the Group 3 Bendigo Cup over 2400m. And it brings about the return of one we were keen on at the start of the Spring for bigger events than this. The one we speak about is KIRRAMOSA who got in a battle with the new champ WINX i9n the Epsom and came off second best. That seemed to railroad the trip down to Melbourne and has resulted in a downgrade after the early aims were for the Caulfield and potentially even the Melbourne Cup. Assuming back to full fitness (she has had issues in the past), think she will be awfully hard to beat. And it looks like the money has come. Starting looking at early markets last night and $6 was available but has been well and truly snapped up. Now into $4.20+ with BET365, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL and UNIBET, which is still decent odds and suggest a play accordingly. Main dangers MAYGROVE and THE OFFER.

SUGGEST: KIRRAMOSA (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / F / F / 3), (F / 1, 4 / F / 3), (F / F / 1, 4 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

Race 9: Benchmark 70 over 1400m. Big field, pace/tactics/luck in running required. Many winning chances, but hoping they will go hard up front and give those off the pace their chance to swoop late. By race 9 we should have a decent guide as to whether backmarkers are getting their chance. Assuming they are (pace dependant) willing to give two drawn very wide a chance here at nice odds. CORDOBA the top pick at $12+ (LUXBET, CENTRBET, WILLIAM HILL), ahead of ex-Joe Pride Sydney galloper *SURGE AHEAD* who is also drawn terrible and has a big impost to carry, however his best is definitely good enough to offset both here at $35+, with LUXBET. Given the odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers LADY SHARAPOVA and TUCANO first time in Australia.

SUGGEST: CORDOBA (EACH WAY) @ $12+, *SURGE AHEAD* (EACH WAY) @ $35+, FIRST FOUR (10, 13 / F / F / 2, 3), (F / 10, 13 / F / 2, 3), (F / F / 10, 13 / 2, 3) (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 10: And we finish with another benchmark 70, this time over 1600m. Tricky finish, but top pick is the top weight here in HERE TO THERE @ $5+ (BET365)), ahead of best value runner here in **GLOBAL ASSAULT** @ $13+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET). Given the odds, will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers PLOT THE COURSE and MARGIN TRADER.

SUGGEST: HERE TO THERE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5+, **GLOBAL ASSAULT** (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (9, 13 / 1 / F / 7), (9, 13 / F / 1 / 7), (9, 13 / F / F / 1, 7), (F / 9, 13 / F / 1, 7), (F / F / 9, 13 / 1, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

 SUMMARY:

Average odds a very juicy $10.19+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: KING BUDDY @ $9+, GLOBAL ASSAULT @ $13+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: SURGE AHEAD @ $35+

#happypunting