31 October 2015 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

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ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 31, 2015

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.93, meaning we’re currently looking at a GOOD (4), however rain is on the way with an 80% chance of anywhere between 3-10mm Saturday, hence a down grade or two would be expected, however currently scheduled for afternoon and evening, so will they come?

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Rosehill after about a month away with the rail back in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track, however especially with rain forecast, expecting no disadvantage off the fence, but as always pace/tempo key. Be sure to monitor early races for early guide to any potential biases and keep a close eye on the weather.

 

Race 1: Tricky start to the day with the young two year olds, many of which heading to the track for their race debuts. We saw PITTSBURGH work at the Valley at Breakfast with the Best with an older horse and held his own, telling us he’s worth a small dabble each way at $21+ with SPORTSBET

SUGGEST: PITTSBURGH (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5 / F / F / 4), (F / 1, 3, 5 / F / 4), (F / F / 1, 3, 5 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

Race 2: Keen on LADY LE FAY here @ $4.20+ with SPORTSBET, CENTREBET and WILLIAM HILL. We were on her last time as our Best Value of the day and she flew late for 3rd at a price and can hopefully sit a touch closer here for Collett and be in a position to reel them all in here. Suggest on a WIN only basis.

SUGGEST: LADY LE FEY (WIN) @ $4.20+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: If the rain doesn’t come, then I want to be on RELIGIFY @ $5+ (most operators), if not I probably want to steer clear. RELIGIFY looked set to steam through the ranked two preps back, but dropped off last prep. Not quite right? Soft tracks? Just wary it may have been the latter, hence why we play on a GOOD surface, but leave if the rain comes prior.

SUGGEST: RELIGIFY (EACH WAY) @ $5.00+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Like DINGHU MOUNTAIN simply on the back of latest trial which looked ultra-impressive under a very tight hold. Looks to have come back very well and expect to fire first up @ $4.40+ with BET365.

SUGGEST: DINGHU MOUNTAIN (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Can’t split two here in LUXURY @ $6.50+ (SPORTSBET) and DISTINCTIVE LOOK @ $9+ (most operators), as a result we’ll suggest plays on both on a WIN only basis. Main danger the obvious in hot pot fave INVIENNA, but rock bottom odds and little value.

SUGGEST: LUXURY (WIN) @ $6.50+, DISTINCTIVE LOOK (WIN) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (5 / 1, 16 / F / F), (F / 1, 16 / 5 / F), (F / 1, 5, 16 / 1, 5, 16 / F), (F / F / 1, 5, 16 / 1, 5, 16), (F / 1, 5, 16 / F / 1, 5, 16) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6:  Waller looks to have a very strong hand across the card with several identified already and looking to continue here where I think TELEPATHIC and BERIMILLA are the two to play around. Given the expected softer track (assuming the rain has come by now), then think BERRIMILLA represents excellent value @ $15+ (SPORTSBET). Stablemate TELEPATHIC the main danger and the one to be on also on a WIN only basis @ $3.80+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL). Playing around the two Waller runners.

SUGGEST: BERRIMILLA @ $15+, TELEPATHIC (WIN) @ $3.80+, FIRST FOUR (F / 3 / F / 5) (roving bankers 3, 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

QUADDIE (added at 3:16pm AEDT): 3, 5, 10 / 1, 2, 9 / FIELD / 3, 5

 

Race 7: Another race, and another with Waller runners we want to back. Let’s hope the great man is in for a huge day, especially at Rosehill. Keen on **SENSE AND REASON** @ $9+ (most operators) here first up, and any rain will only enhance chances, so not worried about the weather. Loved the way she worked home from the rear in her latest trial. Tells me she’s ready to fire first up. Given the odds, will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Stablemate KRISTY LEE is the other over the odds here at a very juicy $19+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET). Good enough and legitimate chance. Main danger MAGIC OF DREAMS down from short trip in Queensland for Kris Lees.

SUGGEST: **SENSE AND REASON** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, KRISTY LEE (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 1, 2, 9 / F), (9 / F / F / 1, 2), (F / 9 / F / 1, 2), (F / F / 9 / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 8: Tricky race over 1100m, especially give we currently don’t know if the rain has come or not. Top pick here I CAN ROCK here @ $6+ with SPORTSBET, however is unknown on a softer track. As a result, monitor things closer to jump time if the rain has come, and use the market as a guide. (i.e. Be wary if it rains and there is a notable betting drift). Looking further can make a case for *QUEENIAN* @ $21+ here (LUXBET, UNIBET), first up after a long break. Liked quiet trial recently despite finishing last of 6, hit the line nicely under no riding and was doing best work on and even after the line. Is proven on wet track, so no queries there, however does need some luck from the wide gate (11). Given the odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers FREEZE THE CHARGES and SLOTS, but doesn’t end there. Deep race.

SUGGEST: I CAN ROCK (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6+, *QUEENIAN* (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (F / 12 / F / 8), (6, 7 / 12 / F / 8), (F / 6, 7, 12/ 6, 7, 12 / 8), (6, 7 / F / F / 8, 12), (F / 6, 7 / F / 8, 12), (F / F / 6, 7 / 8, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: And now for the lucky last as the curtain falls on the Sydney card on Derby Day, with a benchmark 78 over 1350m. DUCA VALENTINOIS is all the rage and has been extremely well backed into a very short $2.60+ quote after opening $4.60+. Huge go on the back of recent trials, in particular latest trial when went very well. In saying that, rock bottom odds here with every man and his dog on, so we’ll look for better value elsewhere and leave for savers/multies/etc. And believe it or not, we land with Waller again. Bit wary of the number of suggestions from the one yard, but if you’re going to have a lot of eggs in one basket, it’s probably the yard you want to be in. Just looks to have a super team of runners at the home Rosehill track. Wasn’t long ago that **BASCULE** was racing in a lot better races than this (5 starts back (21/2/15) beaten only 4L to Wanjina, Disposition, Stratum Star in Group 3 at Flemington). Good eno8ugh to win this at a juicy $11+ price with SPORTSBET. Slight query on a softer track if a lot of rain comes, but does have a win on soft ground, so only a slight query at this level. Given the odds will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, don’t see much wrong with stablemate MURVATE @ $11+ (BET365, PALMERBET), very consistent type and as long as backmarkers are getting their chance, right in this. Suggest plays on both, with savers into the hot pot fave.

SUGGEST: **BASCULE** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, MURVATE (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (10 / F / F / 3, 5), (F / 10 / F / 3, 5), (F / F / 10 / 3, 5), (roving bankers 3, 5, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

 

QUADDIE (added at 3:16pm AEDT): 3, 5, 10 / 1, 2, 9 / FIELD / 3, 5

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $10.42+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SENSE AND REASON @ $9+, BASCULE @ $11+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: QUEENIAN @ $21+

#happypunting