4 October 2015 (Racing at Headquarters - Flemington)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 4, 2015

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.88 meaning we're currently looking at a GOOD (4) with the forecast for warm weather.

RAIL: +9M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to headquarters again after a three week break (last raced here September 12, 2015) when the rail was in the TRUE position. Hoping for an even track with pace/tempo the key. As always, be sure to monitor early races for early guide to any potential biases.

 

Race 1: Listed 2YO Maribyrnong Trial Stakes down the straight over 1000m. MANUEL all the rage into $1.95+. SWEET SHERRY and RYLEA LASS have trialled okay also but prefer to steer clear with several here never seen before. Plenty of guesswork with these babies, simply sit back, watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Listed event over 1400m. Notice WELL SIGHTED has elected to be here instead of Friday night and can understand the decision as this does look easier and was able to avoid the bone dry FIRM (2) track. Gave him a chance at odds Friday, hence need to rate him here as we do. Top pick and a tidy $5+ (SPORTSBET) price tag. The other at longer odds we can have again is STOKER @ $10+ (BET365), but is running out of chances. Main dangers TOP ME UP and FAATINAH for multiples/savers/first four strategies.

SUGGEST: WELL SIGHTED (EACH WAY) @ $5+, STOKER (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (2 8 / 6 / F / 1), (2 6 8 / F / F / 1), (2, 8 / F / F / 1, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Arguably the world’s best sprinter CHATAUQUA all the rage and rightly so. However, it’s rare we can get excited about $1.35+ (Black Caviar aside when it was a super price), and as a result not going to suggest putting your house on at the price. An option for multies, but only $1.35 so again choose wisely if/when to add. Give CHURCHILL DANCER a blowout chance @ $11+ (SPORTSBET, BET365), the gelding has been one of the Dungeon stars this spring with back to back wins at nice odds but this is most definitely step up again. Probably prefer $2+ the place for him instead of $1.35 for the fave. Multiples with the two running 1-2. Blowout ROYAL RAPTURE @ $51+ (BET365) who gave a massive sight for us at 150/1 and we were stiff to miss first four at crazy odds. Out of respect and given a relatively unknown quantity, peanut on and include in multiples.

SUGGEST: CHURCHILL DANCER (SMALL WIN/PLACE) @ $11+, ROYAL RAPTURE (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR/MULTIPLES (1, 4 / 1, 4 / F / F) (roving banker 1 4 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: UCI Stakes over 1800m with a big, competitive field assembled. TIVACI, IRON BOSS and ETYMOLOGY the three shortest in the market and all good winning chances coming from varying formlines. I’m going to somewhat take on the provincial form and run with the form out of a race Dungeon followers would recall vividly as TARZINO put in a brilliant performance to salute at a nice price for us. This is the ETYMOLOGY form, however as always searching for best value and think that lies with two others out of the same race in *PAY UP BRO* @ $31+ (BET365) and ASSERTIVE STAR @ $21+ (CROWNBET). Notice $34+ is up for grabs for PAY UP BRO in the Derby, so suggest a longer term play there also. At $31+ today will make PAY UP BRO one of our BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day.First four saver strategy with the 3 mentioned earlier a must as these are the races with potential for a big return regardless of how small the percentage.

SUGGEST: *PAY UP BRO* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, ASSERTIVE STAR (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (6 9 12 / F / F / 11 17), (F / 6 9 12 / F / 11 17), (F / F / 6 9 12 / 11 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Group 2 Edward Manifold for the 3YO fillies over the mile. This race is always ultra-competitive and always the chance of a few surprises along the way. DON’T DOUBT MAMMA has been flying and no reason why she can’t salute again @ $5+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET, CROWNBET). Suggest a WIN only play here. Best value LAZUMBA @ $15+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) and THAMES COURT @ $18+ (UNIBET). Main dangers and legitimate winning chances for multiples include SACRED EYE, BADAWIYA, SAILING BY and MY POPETTE in that order.

SUGGEST: DON’T DOUBT MAMMA (WIN) @ $5+, LAZUMBA (EACH WAY) @ $15+, THAMES COURT (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (1 7 9 11 / 4 / F / 8 13), (1 7 9 11 / F / F / 8 13), (F / 1 4 7 9 11 / F / 8 13), (F / F / 1 4 7 9 11 / 8 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6:  Group 3 Bart Cummings over 2520m with many Melbourne Cup hopefuls trying to stake a claim on the big race. Regardless of where your money is, would be simply amazing for PRECEDENCE to run a race in the race named after the Cups King, however it would be a shock and as expected big ‘unders’ given plenty of sentimental money to surely be there. There doesn’t look to be a heap of pace here, which makes me think KAPOUR @ $8+ (BETSTAR, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES) may be able to cross comfortably from the wide gate and as long as leaders/on pacers are getting their chance, then should be hard to catch. Monitor earlier races for guide as to whether this is the case. Looking deeper, best value with CRAFTY CRUISER who hasn’t carried this lightweight for a while and is going as well as ever. $19+ (SPORTSBET) a great each way price regardless of the step up in grade. Can also make a claim for *HAWKSPUR* each way @ $31+ (BET365). At the odds will make another of our BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day. Main dangers for multiples include favourite FOUNDRY (huge chance but rock bottom odds @ $2.90+), OUR IVANHOWE who is ready to show best but has a big weight carry, LET’S MAKE ADEAL, and blowout MAYGROVE. Stewards just advised that DE LITTLE ENGINE will be ridden closer to the pace today, which is reason enough to throw into savers/multiples.

SUGGEST: KAPOUR (EACH WAY) @ $8.00+, CRAFTY CRUISER (E/W) @ $19+, *HAWKSPUR* (E/W) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (1 5 7 15 / F / F / 3 4 12 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 7: And now for the feature, the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes. Unfortunately for connections ALPINE EAGLE is out with a very untimely issue, albeit minor. Good, even race as you would expect. Can’t split two at the top so going to suggest as equal top rated picks. They are **HARTNELL** @ $7+ (SPORTSBET) and **RISING ROMANCE** @ $9.50+ (BETSTAR, LUXBET, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES, PALMERBET). Will make the duo our BEST VALUE bets of the day. Best value of the result who I suggest a secondary wager on is DANDINO @ $19+ (SPORTSBET) who seems a new horse since joining the Weir stable. Main danger for multiples/first four strategy include ROYAL DESCENT, HAPPY TRAILS and AMRALAH.

SUGGEST: HARTNELL (EACH WAY) @ $7+, RISING ROMANCE (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, DANDINO (W/W – SECONDARY) @ $19+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Group 2 Blazer Stakes for the mares over 1400m, and this looks very tough as you expect with these mares races over 1400-1600m. Many chances throughout, so could be a wide quaddie leg, however willing to give MADAM GANGSTER a chance here again after she saluted first up for us, before never being in the race last time. With gun hood Shinn aboard for the lethal Hope/Shinn combination can bounce back here @ $8+ (CROWNBET). Then, assuming on pacers are getting their chance (monitor earlier races) then think GIRL GUIDE is a legitimate hope here at a juicy $15+ (BET365). Had HAZARD drawn a decent barrier, would have been top pick, but again has drawn the carpark and will need luck, however does have gun hoop McDonald aboard to counter that somewhat. Main saver HAZARD, other main dangers led by JESSY BELLE, ATLANTIS DREAM, TYCOON TARA and SATYA in a very deep race.

SUGGEST: MADAM GANGSTER (EACH WAY) @ $8+, GIRL GUIDE (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5, 7, 15 / F / F / 2, 4), (1 / 3 5 7 15 / F / 2 4) (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 9: We finish what looks a tricky card with arguably the toughest of the day. Don’t know much about TURN ME LOOSE first time in Australia, but obviously need to always respect those coming across with Murray Baker, especially those well in the market. Top two look to be ULMANN and LORD ASPEN at $7+ (most operators) and $4.20+ (LUXBET, BET365) respectively. Suggest WIN only plays there, as well as each way SENTINUM at a tidy $16+ (BET365, PALMERBET). Others for multiles/first four strategies WORTHY CAUSE, YESTERDAY’S SONGS and OCTOBER DATE.

SUGGEST: ULMANN (WIN) @ $7+, LORD ASPEN (WIN) @ $4.20+, SENTINUM (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (2 10 11 17 / 9 12 15 / F / 9 12 15) (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $15.35 per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: HARTNELL @ $7+, RISING ROMANCE @ $9.50+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: PAY UP BRO @ $31+, HAWKSPUR @ $31+

 

 #happypunting