21 November 2015 (Racing at Ballarat)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

BALLARAT

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2015

 

Racing at BALLARAT for their showcase Saturday race day with the penetrometer reading 5.23, meaning we're currently looking at a SOFT (5) surface to start with, with every chance of an upgrade should the showers stay away.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to Ballarat for their showcase day and a huge 10 race card, with passive field and a very competitive day’s racing. Rail in the TRUE position and hoping for all runners to get their chance, pace dependant. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start what looks a very tough, competitive day with a benchmark 70 over 1100m. Looks to be plenty of pace up front here, so tactics will be key. Slight lean to **PENDLES** @ $9+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET, CROWNBET, UNIBET) here second up (previously 2 wins from 2 starts second up) and had excuses last time behind JUDGES. Does meet JUDGES worse off at the weights (only 0.5kg swing for 2.3L defeat), however hoping improvement second up will make up the difference, not to mention sitting behind what we think will be a decent tempo. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Best value elsewhere COLORS OF THE WIND @ $26+ with BET365 (opened $41+ so there has been support already) who just needs some luck from the wide gate. Given the odds, happy to gamble for the luck required. Main dangers for multiples/savers JUDGES, BERLUTTI, OSTERIA and MR LIBERTY in a deep race which looks the order of the day.

SUGGEST: **PENDLES** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, COLORS OF THE WIND (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 8, 13 / F / F / 6, 10), (F / 2, 4, 8, 13 / F / 6, 10), (F / F / 2, 4, 8, 13 / 6, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 78 over 1200m. Tricky again and pace and tactics key. On this occasion, there looks to be only moderate tempo at front and as a result expecting those closer to the pace to be advantaged. Was keen on RISQUE BUSINESS @ $19+ (LUXBET) with confidence increased after Zambezi Diamond won last night, but unfortunately scratched. Had ANAPHORA drawn a gate, we would have been extremely keen, but has drawn the carpark, which will make things extremely tough here. Going to stick with LITEN PRINCESSA on top here just @ $5.00+ (UNIBET). Doesn’t necessarily meet others as well at the weights from last run, however was held up for a fair way rounding the turn, hence with clearer running here should be able to offset any weight swing. Finally, a smaller dabble on CRESTA CONDOR @ $41+ (most operators) who gets a nice weight swing on our top pick here and could run a cheeky race up front. Main danger ESTAMINET (every chance, but unders and no value), NORTHERN SAINT (rate in this grade, but just think will get too far back given tempo) and ANAPHORA (mentioned earlier).

SUGGEST: LITEN PRINCESSA (EACH WAY) @ $5+, CRESTA CONDOR (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (6, 9, 13 / 4 / F / 14), (6, 9, 13 / F / 4 / 14), (F / 6, 9, 13 / 6, 9, 13 / 4, 14) (roving bankers 4, 13, 14 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 70 over 2300m. This time looks a genuine tempo, which should hopefully allow all runners to get their chance. Disappointed by the scratching of SPECTACULAR VISION who looked great value @ $14+, but has been saved for another day. As a result, like PURPLE SMILE here, who gets in very nicely after the 3kg claim from Dylan Dunn. Hoping they elect to sit just behind the leaders on the fence from barrier 2 and peel out at the right time. $6+ with SPORTSBET looks nice each way value in another competitive affair. Blowout hope to *GO BY RIO* @ 100/1+ with SPORTSBET. Gets a massive weight swing on LETHAL here for their battle on October 12 (5kg swing for a 1.5L defeat). Will need some luck from the gate, but should find a spot on the pace and will use the excuse of having to cover some early ground last start for his failure to run the trip out last time. At $81+ (SPORTSBET, CROWNBET), definitely worthy of a dabble, and given the odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers, LIPS AREIOS (who may be too good, but is very short, and has a wide gate to contend with, prefer to leave for multies if keen to increase potential return), SAMMY THE SNAKE and ALL I SURVEY.

SUGGEST: PURPLE SMILE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6+, *GO BY RIO* (EACH WAY) @ $81+, FIRST FOUR (3, 10, 11 / F / F / 2, 16), (roving bankers 2, 3, 16 / F), (roving bankers 2, 10, 16 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Now for an open set weights and penalties event over 1400m. Another even, competitive field and pace doesn’t look overly strong on paper, although a few here are difficult to map with limited form to go by and varying tactics to date. Going with the class here, despite what the form guide shows and that’s RAGAZZO DEL CORSO @ $5.50+ with most operators. Has raced in listed, Group 3, Group 3, listed and Group 1 races at past 5 since winning as a 2YO at his second start. No excuses here and with tempo on paper should be extremely hard to catch. At this stage, might leave this one as a standalone each way investment. Extremely wary of ORVASSA, but am hoping she simply gets too far back and runs out of ground. One of savers/multies.

SUGGEST: RAGAZZO DEL CORSO (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5:  Now for the Magic Millions 2YO clockwise classic and safe to say there’s plenty of guesswork here. PREFERITO did look okay in recent trial, but hard to line up a couple of these, mainly BRING ME THE BLING and SHE’S POSITIVE. As a result, at this stage looking to watch and learn, however as always should we get keen closer to race time (i.e one may jump out on looks in the mounting yard) we will communicate via social channels.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%) 

 

Race 6: Benchmark 70 over the mile. And this is very tough again, sorry to sound like a broken record, but big, even fields are the story of the day. Slight lean to SHIKARPOUR who seems to have made the transition to the Weir stable nicely (as many do) and now ready to get back into the winner’s stall. Should get a nice run in transit and interestingly they have elected not to claim with John Allen riding at the allotted 60.5kg. Weight the main query but $8.50+ (UNIBET) is decent enough value and is the type of horse I’d expect to be able to carry the big weight over the mile. On similar lines also like BAJOUR who won well for new (Danny O’Brien) stable last time after coming over from NZ, has had a nice little freshen up since to have him cherry ripe for this. $12+ with most operators, good each way value. They’ve also elected not to claim with Ben Melham aboard, and carried 59.5kg over 2500m in a listed event in NZ, so confident the 60kg won’t be any major worry. Main dangers MANAPINE (rate highly but needs a lot of luck from the bad gate/will give them a big start), CLEMO (can improve with blinkers on) and LEICA DAY.

SUGGEST: SHIKARPOUR (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, BAJOUR (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (3, 4, 14 / F / F / 6, 8), (roving bankers 4, 6, 8 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Now for the Magic Millions Classic for the 3 and 4 year olds over 1100m. And don’t mind several here at big odds so looking to spread bets accordingly, in the order provided. Those in question include MAGNETTE @ $41+ (most operators), HONOURABLE TYCOON @ $23+ (LUXBET), OUR CATCH @ $41+ (most operators) and PROMPT RETURN @ $61+ (SPORTSBET). Main dangers WILD RAIN, HUSSON EAGLE and MURT THE FLIRT.

SUGGEST: MAGNETTE (E/W) @ $41+, HONOURABLE TYCOON (E/W) @ $23+, OUR CATCH (E/W) @ $41+, PROMPT RETURN (E/W) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 11 / F / F / 7, 9, 13, 16), (roving bankers 1, 4, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 8: Now for the listed Ballarat Cup over 2200m. Another deep race with many chances, hence looking for some value away from the popular elects. **ZAYAM** has done little wrong and seems to fly under the radar each time, especially from an odds point of view. $17+ (BET365, SPORTSBET) represents great each way value for this. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then there’s an old mate CRAFTY CRUISER who always puts in 100%, and has proven in the past that the drop in distance can work. Gets some much needed weight relief, but the main things this guy needs is some luck. From gate 4, should finally get some and at $34+ (BETSTAR, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, CROWNBET) also represents great value. Finally, LORD DURANTE is silly odds at $61+ with SPORTSBET. Will need luck from the wide gate but have to have something (secondary) on at the price. Main dangers, TOOLEYBUCK KID, AKZAR, SYSMO and UNGRATEFUL ELLEN.

SUGGEST: **ZAYAM** (EACH WAY) @ $17+, CRAFTY CRUISER (EACH WAY) @ $34+, LORD DURANTE (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (5, 8, 12, 16 / F / F / 6, 14, 17) (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

Race 9: Benchmark 84 over 1400m and you guessed it another big, open, competitive field. Pace/tactics key with many on pace to midfield type runners engaged and they all can’t settle in the same spot. As a result, will they push forward, or settle further back than usual? Dare say by this stage any apparent advantage will be known and that will help jockeys answer this key question. Working off an even tempo at best, and as a result think best value lies with SOCIETY MAN @ $8.50+ (most operators) as long as he can get a soft enough lead up front. If others decide to push forward as mentioned above, then our job will become much tougher. Also think ELMANTOSH represents great value here at $41+ (SPORTSBET) and should get a lovely run in transit behind the leaders from barrier 6. Meets key rival DURENDAL 3kg better at the weights for a 2.5L defeat 3 starts back and as a result the price discrepancy ($4 v $41) is massively in his favour. Given the odds, will make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers DURENDAL and PROFIT SHARE, but race runs much deeper with many legitimate winning chances once again.

SUGGEST: SOCIETY MAN (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, ELMANTOSH (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 10 / F / F / 14, 18), (roving bankers 2, 14, 18 / F), (roving bankers 10, 14, 18 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 10: We finish a massive card with the City of Ballarat Tonks Plate over 1200m and there looks to be plenty of pace on paper here. RED BOMBER is most definitely the best horse here and has been good for Dungeon followers in the past in much better grade than this, however is vulnerable first up on the back of what can only be explained as an ‘ok’ trial if you want to be polite. Some would call it ‘terrible’. In saying that, he knows how to win as his brilliant strike rate suggests. Going to reluctantly leave in terms of standalone plays, but he is a must for all exotics, quaddies and could be a nice multi leg at a decent $6+ price tag. Monitor betting/pre-race interviews to gauge any confidence from the stable. Instead going to work with a couple that will settle back and should appreciate a strong tempo up front. The two in question are MAGNUS REIGN @ $5+ (most operators) and SANG CHOI BAO @ $12+ (BET 365). Was hoping for a little better value for MAGNUS REIGN in particular, however looks like bookies/pros have identified a similar speed map to us and seem to have nailed the market in my opinion. Main dangers RED BOMBER (as stated) and METAPHORICAL (who may find this too short, but will be hitting the line late).

SUGGEST: MAGNUS REIGN (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5+, SANG CHOI BAO (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 1, 7, 16 / F), (roving bankers 4, 7, 16 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $26.93+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: PENDLES @ $9+, ZAYAM @ $17+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: GO BY RIO @ $81+, ELMANTOSH @ $41+

  #happypunting