ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2015
Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.59, meaning we’re currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface and best of all the hot weather has passed.
RAIL: 6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Rosehill with the rail out +6M. Hoping for an even track, however on the back of the hot weather and rail out, there is always the chance of a track favouring those on pace, closer to the fence. As a result, be sure to monitor early races for best guide.
Race 1: Short and sweet, like DANJEU here. Gets the right weight swing on JIAYUGUAN who beat him last time (1kg for 0.5L) and stablemates at the top of the weights will be fully tested carrying61kg and 60.5kg respectively. As a result, DANJEU weighted to win here @ $5+ with LADBROKES, LUXBET and BOOKMAKER.COM.AU. Main danger HUDSON COUNTRY who could get a soft lead and brings excellent provincial / mid-week form to town. Note, no third dividend given only 6 runners.
SUGGEST: DANJEU (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5+, EXACTA (HUDSON COUNTRY/DANJEU), FIRST FOUR (7 / F / 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 2: The two year old babies, so as usual some guesswork, but I think we have enough to go off in terms of exposed race runs and trials. Don’t think they’ll go hard here and as a result, expect this to be fought out by JERICHO @ $3.50+ (LUXBET) and BRAVISSIMO @ $4+ (most operators). Suggests plays around the two, however again note no third dividend.
SUGGEST: JERICHO (WIN) @ $3.50+, BRAVISSIMO (WIN) @ $4+, QUINELLA (JERICHO, BRAVISSIMO), FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 4, / 2, 4 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 3: Doesn’t look to be much pace on paper here, as a result expecting two to fight this out. FEAST FOR EYES despite the big weight @ $5+ (most operators) and PERFECT DARE @ $5.50+ (LUXBET, BET365) are the two we want to play around. The latter gets a very good weight swing on the favourite WE’RE SURE here for a very minor defeat and should get the better run in transit. Main danger WE’RE SURE despite the weight swing as the win last start was impressive, just think current odds are very skinny. Note 8 runners, hence full three dividends are available.
SUGGEST: FEAST FOR EYES (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.00+, PERFECT DARE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, QUINELLA (FEAST FOR EYES, PERFECT DARE), FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 3, 7 / 1, 3, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 4: Playing around one particular form line here which probably means we’ll be all over the race or not at all. Looks to be good speed on paper and after having the luxury of watching the first couple of races, know that the track looks even and runners are getting their chance out wide and from the rear. IMMY the best at the weights from the race in question and can turn the tables on rivals at a tidy $10+ price with most operators. Then, secondary plays at another two coming from the same race in CITY BOOTS @ $17+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET, BET3265) and UNKNOWN DESTINY @ $21+ (SPORTSBET, LUXBET, BET365). Main danger from the same form line NOBLE JOEY. Big watches on OCEAN GRAND and BITBURG both first up from breaks without any public trials. Throw them in if money heads there way.
SUGGEST: IMMY (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $10+, CITY BOOTS (E/W – SECONDARY ) @ $17+, UNKNOWN DESTINY (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 12, 13, 14, 15), (F / F / 12, 13, 14, 15 / 12, 13, 14, 15) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 5: Don’t like the race, however am surprised at the price put up for AWARD SEASON who would beat these at his best and recent trials suggest he might just have recovered from issues since flying out of the blocks once he hit Australian land a long time ago. At $31+ with CROWNBET, LUXBET and BET365 happy for a small play each way. Would take a remarkable training effort, but Kris Lees is more than capable.
SUGGEST: AWARD SEASON (EACH WAY) @ $31+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: Doesn’t look to be a heap of pace on paper and as a result playing around two that we’re hoping will settle close to the lead. Top pick GOD’S IN HIM to be hard to beat @ $3.90+ (SPORTSBET) and suggest on a WIN only basis. Then, an each way play on PERFECT WEAPON @ $26+ (most operators) although doesn’t meet GAMBLESTOWN so well at the weights even after the claim, but hoping gets the better run here. As a result, main danger GAMBLESTOWN and ELOPING who can settle closer to the pace here.
SUGGEST: GOD’S IN HIM (WIN) @ $3.90+, PERFECT WEAPON (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (3, 8 / 1 / F / 9), (F / 1, 3, 8 / 1, 3, 8 / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 7: Tricky benchmark 78 over 1400m with only moderate tempo on paper. Slight lean HARLEM LADY here @ $7.50+ with LUXBET, ahead of stablemate ALL CERISE @ $14+ (WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET, TOM WATERHOUSE) who has been waiting anxiously for a firmer track on the back of nice trials. Blowout hope to *RAFFINATO* at a crazy $35+ with LUXBET. At the odds will make our best LONGSHOT of the day. Happy to play around the three, and hoping they serve it up to favourite FESTIVITY up front, who will be hard to catch if left alone….as a result, the obvious main danger.
SUGGEST: HARLEM LADY (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, ALL CERISE (EACH WAY) @ $14+, *RAFFINATO* (EACH WAY) @ $35+, FIRST FOUR (boxed 3, 5, 12, 14), (roving bankers (5, 12, 14 / F), (3 / 12 / F / 5, 14) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Top pick **LE CORDON BLEU** @ $7+ (most operators) who is currently much better odds than expected and as a result will make our BEST VALUe bet of the day. Ahead of one who has been good to Dungeon followers in I CAN ROCK @ $15+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET, PALMERBET, BET365) who is going well but needs to improve with an extra 1.5kg on his back. Main dangers at decent odds for multiples include PALAZZO PUBLICO and SKRIPCHENKO at the bottom of the weights.
SUGGEST: **LE CORDON BLEU** (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7+, I CAN ROCK (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (12, 13 / 2 / F / 11), (12, 13 / 2 / F / F), (F / 2, 11, 12, 13 / 2, 11, 12, 13 / 2, 11, 12, 13) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: Like CAUTHEN’S POWER in the lucky last, but we just need some pace on up front. In the safe hands of James Mcdonald from a tricky gate (16), but just need some pace on up front. Not 100% sure we’ll get it, but at $7+ (most operators) happy to take the gamble each way. Main dangers HEAVEN’S ABOVE, CAPED CRUSADER and BINARY.
SUGGEST: CAUTHEN’S POWER (EACH WAY) @ $7+ FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4 / F / F / 9), (F / 2, 3, 4 / F / 9), (F / F / 2, 3, 4 / 9) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
** BEST VALUE **: LE CORDON BLEU @ $7+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: RAFFINATO @ $35+