28 November 2015 (Racing at Moonee Valley)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

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MOONEE VALLEY

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2015

 

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY for their first Saturday since Cox Plate Day, with the penetrometer reading 4.56, which equates to a GOOD (4). However, we’ve just walked the track and the track is much firmer than this, currently on the fast side of good. Heat earlier in the week, coupled with strong winds have resulted in a very firm surface despite 12mm going on last night. Expectation is for water to go on again in the morning, after which we should hopefully be ideally a GOOD (4) surface, however given current condition, thinking we might be working with a GOOD (3).  -> Update at 8:58am, penetrometer 4.53 = GOOD (3).

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to MOONEE VALLEY for the first Saturday in a while, however there has obviously been racing here on Friday nights, hence we’re only on an 8 day backup here after the rail was out +5M last Friday night. Normally no disadvantage to be off the fence, with those off the pace getting their chance, pace dependant. We’ve based our suggestions below on those off the pace, off the fence being benefitted (definitely not disadvantaged). As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the firm track explanation mentioned above.

 

Race 1: Tough start with the two year olds, all on debut and many of which have not been seen in official public trials. KEY EVIDENCE was seen and looked impressively winning trial, however overall time was slow, hence may have looked flattering, however third placed Rambling Raider did run quite well last week in the 2YO clockwork classic at Ballarat. Be sure to monitor market closely for better guide, especially on those who are unseen. At this stage, just a small play each way on KEY EVIDENCE at $8+ with LUXBET, SPORTSBET, BET365 and UNIBET. Many dangers but a first four saver with VEGAS STRIP.

SUGGEST: KEY EVIDENCE (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (12 / F / F / 7) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 70 for the 3YOs over 1200m. Slight lean here to DIVINE MR ARTIE @ $4+ (SPORTSBET) who has been ultra-consistent to date and Oliver should be able to find a decent spot with cover off the speed and be hitting the line late. There looks to be decent speed on paper to suit. Just ahead of FAATINAH who has done very little wrong and will be hard to beat, however working off a 1kg advantage for their meeting down the straight and the slightly better odds on offer. Best value elsewhere is *DARK ENSIGN* @ $71+ (LUXBET, CROWNBET, UNIBET) who trialled nicely and showed enough last prep to be competitive here if improved over the break. At the price, happy to take the punt he has and given the price will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers WELL SIGHTED, LES DARCI and OUR VIDIA all at double figure odds. Happy to take on RILLITO who jumps up in grade significantly and 2nd placegetter from last start win has finished 8th/8 at next start, beaten 6.4L in $22k maiden. Given the short price, happy to risk although concede stable are more than capable of having him ready to fire first time in town.

SUGGEST: DIVINE MR ARTIE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4+, *DARK ENSIGN* (EACH WAY) @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 4, 6 / 9 / F / 8), (2, 3, 4, 6 / F / F / 8, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Open handicap for the mares over 1200m, in what looks a small but tricky affair. Doesn’t looks to be much pace on paper here, hence tactics will be key. Slight lean to SINO EAGLE first up here @ $7+ (SPORTSBET), just think can settle one out, one back which I think will be the place to be here. Main dangers CATCH THAT CAT, LITEN PRINCESSA, WHISTLE BABY and NAUTICAL.

SUGGEST: SINO EAGLE (EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4, 5 / F / F / 2), (1, 3, 4, 5 / 1, 3, 4, 5 / 1, 3, 4, 5 / 2) (roving bankers 1, 3, 4 / F), (roving bankers 1, 3, 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Now for a benchmark 90 over 2500m, with a small but competitive field assembled. Keen on MASTER ZEPHYR here @ $2.80+ (BET365) on a WIN only basis. Doesn’t look to be much pace on paper, so should get the right run closer to the pace and 2500m looks ideal while a few others I think are either wanting longer or a query at running the trip. Main danger RENEW @ $8.50+ (BET365) who finally draws a decent gate after jumping from 14, 17, 13 at past three in better grade than this. Happy to play around the two. Main dangers are two who are somewhat unknown at the trip in IMPERIAL LASS and SURE YOU CAN. The slow tempo probably helps their cause as a result.

SUGGEST: MASTER ZEPHYR (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.80+, EXACTA (RENEW / MASTER ZEPHYR), FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 6 / 2, 4, 6 / 5 / F) (CONFIDENCE 55%)

 

Race 5:  Now for the Strathmore FC 2005 Premiers, benchmark 70 for the 3YOs over the mile. Dare say a big 10 year reunion for the lads here, enjoy! Like the two dropping in grade from the Group 2 at Sandown behind the red hot Mahuta, in FLYING LIGHT @ $4.40+ (SPORTSBET) and MAYSAM @ $12+ (BETSTAR, SPORTSBET, BOOKMAKER, LADBROKES). Main dangers KRAKEN and MIHALIC who is flying, hard to beat, but has come up rock bottom odds here and unfortunately represents little value.

SUGGEST: FLYING LIGHT (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, MAYSAM (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3 / F / F / 1, 9), (2, 3 / 1 / F / 9), (F / 1, 2, 3, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 9) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6: Now for a benchmark 78 over the mile and another competitive affair where pace/tactics will be key with decent speed on paper. Was keen on BASCULE, but they’ve elected to scratch I dare say due to the barrier. Personally thought it wouldn’t have mattered, given normal racing pattern, but saved for another day. As a result, top pick now becomes BELORUM @ $7+ (BET365) who also has drawn somewhat awkwardly in 11, but hoping 3 wide with cover midfield may be an okay place to be with the rail back in the TRUE position. Blowout hope to OUR VALDIVIA @ $41+ (most operators) with a bit of speed expected to be taken out of the race with MASTER RESET who won today’s Wodonga Cup. Main dangers GOLDEN MANE (comes out of form race last time where set impossible task given track bias) and CLUB STAR (who is every chance, but currently under the odds and little/no value).

SUGGEST: BELORUM (EACH WAY) @ $7+, OUR VALDIVIA (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (3, 11 / F / F / 9, 12), (roving bankers 3, 9, 11 / F), (roving bankers 3, 9, 12 / F), (roving bankers 9, 11, 12 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: City Jeep handicap over the short 1000m, with pace/tactics again key. We are working all selections on the fact that there is no disadvantage to be off the pace peeling wide on the turn, however if that happens to not be the case, be wary. By race 7 we will most definitely know. CHURCHILL DANCER has been very good to Dungeon followers in recent times with us being keen in both wins earlier in the prep when very good value. Is the one to beat here down in grade, however do have the slight concern that from barrier 2 will need some luck and may arguably find himself in inferior ground closer to the fence. Given the shorter price of $3.80, may leave for multies/savers/etc but is a must include in everything. Instead for standalone bets, think better value lies in the form of **UNANIMOUSLY** @ $10+ (BET365), who gets on preferred dry track here and run/track that should suit style and GRANE @ $8.50+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET, BET365, CROWNBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) who won’t know himself with the featherweight of 53kg after the claim. Prefer to play around the two in primary standalone investments and given the double figure odds on offer for UNANIMOUSLY will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Blowout hope AFRICAN PULSE @ $51+ (most operators) on a secondary basis. Main dangers then LONROCKSTAR and STRATURBO. Good, competitive race with many legitimate winning chances.  

SUGGEST: **UNANIMOUSLY** (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $10+, GRANE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, AFRICAN PULSE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (1 / 2, 6 / F / F), (1 / F / 2, 6 / F), (4, 7 / 1 / F / 2, 6), (roving bankers 1, 2, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Benchmark 90 for the mares over 1500m, and there looks to be little pace on paper here, hence tactics are crucial, as I can see some getting too far back and having too much ground to make up late, especially if track is playing evenly. FORTRUS DANCER is a big scratching as was the possible leader, but now difficult speed map to ascertain. Concede SEA SPRAY is the one to beat, however in my opinion rock bottom odds at $3.50+. Prefer to play through multies/possibly a one out quaddie leg/savers. Oliver will need to be smart from barrier 3 given usual racing pattern to try and stay out of trouble/traffic on the bend. AI think the value most definitely lies with **TO BE HONEST** @ $11+ (BET365) who can settle closer to the pace and hopefully pinch a break on the turn from many main chances who will get back and swoop. First up record doesn’t look flash (1 win from, 0 unplaced from 5 starts), however was very good first up last time in much better race over the even shorter 1200m. Similarly distance record reads poorly (never placed from 4 starts), however has won 3 times over 1400m and twice over 1600m, hence not so worried over 1500m. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Looking further, *YOUNG NICOLA* is crazy overs at $51+ (SPORTSBET, BET365), form guide has a duck egg next to her name for finishing 11th of 12 first up but was only 2.5L from the winner, despite running up behind a wall of horses in the last 100m and starting slowly. Zambezi Diamond was only 0.4L ahead of her and has won since. May get too far back given the lack of pace, however at 50/1+ worth the gamble that the backmarkers do get their chance. Given the odds will make another BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers the fave as mentioned, OH SO ASSERTIVE, then QUICKSILVER LASS and SARI at juicy odds also, both around the 20/1 mark.

SUGGEST: **TO BE HONEST** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, *YOUNG NICOLA* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (7 / F / F / 2, 11), (1, 4, 10 / 7 / F / 2, 11), (1, 4, 10 / F / 7 / 2, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 90 over 1200m and keen on NICOSCENE here @ $5+ (BETSTAR, BOOKMAKER, LADBROKES) with decent pace up front, hopefully setting things up for a late swoop to victory here. Gets a very handy 3kg claim here and as long as the tempo is good up front and backmarkers are getting their chance, then looks a safe each way play. Secondary play on GENERAL GROOVE @ $21+ (LUXBET). First up after a long break, so be sure to monitor betting and take a look at fitness levels in the mounting yard. Main dangers MANDLA and BELESRON.

SUGGEST: NICOSCENE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $5+, GENERAL GROOVE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8 / 2 / F / F), (4, 8 / F / F / 1, 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $19.67+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: UNANIMOUSLY @ $10+, TO BE HONEST @ $11+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: DARK ENSIGN @ $71+, YOUNG NICOLA @ $51+

  #happypunting