28 November 2015 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

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ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 28, 2015

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.52, meaning we’re currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface. Medium chance of showers (50%) and if the showers come, anything from 0-3mm expected.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Rosehill on the quick backup after racing here last Saturday when the rail was out +6M. Hoping for an even track, however expecting no disadvantage to be away from the rail, potentially assisting those coming from off the pace, obviously tempo dependant. As usual, be sure to monitor early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: Start with a very difficult opener with the two year olds and the market illustrates the guesswork involved with 6 staters currently lining up and no runner longer than $6 in the field. Watch, learn, save your pennies for later races.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Listed quality over 2000m and one things for sure, they look set to crawl along here, hence tactics key. TELEPATHIC most definitely the one to beat and was still going to suggest a play, but now into less than $1.50 and as a result may look to leave as an anchor for multi legs and/or one out leg in the early quaddie. Given the slight query on the over the distance will appreciate the slow tempo, allowing her to use her turn of foot late in an expected sit and sprint. Think she’ll be winning and looks a good option for anchor multi legs, one our early quaddies, similar. The value and expected big improver is *INSTRUMENTALIST* at $51+ (most operators) over the much more suitable 2000m. Chances increase if they elect to go forward from barrier 6 given the slow tempo expected up front. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Note, no third dividend.

SUGGEST: *INSTRUMENTALIST* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (4 / F / 1 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 73 for the three year olds over 1200m, and a very competitive affair with 8 runners, 7 of which are single figure odds. And we actually like the only one who is double figure odds, in the form of the rank outsider **ELECTRIC TRIBUTE** @ $31+ (BET365). Liked its two recent trials and with decent pace up front, think he can camp behind them and come around them late. Unknown on a drier track, but given the odds happy to take the punt. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also like STRIKE FORCE after a break, again on the back of a nice trial in NSW with $9+ (SPORTSBET) good each way value. Main danger STOKER @ $9.50+, hence we effectively like the three currently longest in the betting.

SUGGEST: **ELECTRIC TRIBUTE** (EACH WAY) @ $31+, STRIKE FORCE (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 2, 3, 6 / F), (2 / F / F / 3, 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Class 3 Highway Handicap over 1500m. Even tempo on paper, hence all runners should hopefully get their chance. Like the value on offer here for VAN HALEN @ $19+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) which looks great each way value. Decent return with a massive weight first up, and has form around Waltzing Willie from last prep, which is good form for this class 3. Will need some luck from the wide gate, but given the odds, will to take the punt he gets it. Hoping the track will allow them to run down towards the centre of the track, hence wide gates might not be a major disadvantage.  Similarly, like AXION @ $13+ (LUXBET) down in grade for this, and although drawn awkwardly, Time will tell. Main danger most definitely ASHJATA and HIGH OPINION, who we suggest for savers/potentially narrow quaddie leg. Chances improved by the faster they go up front.

SUGGEST: VAN HALEN (EACH WAY) @ $19+, AXION (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1, 8 / F / F / 3, 15), (F / 1, 8 / F / 3, 15), (F / F / 1, 8 / 3, 15) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Now for the Listed Starlight Stakes over 1100m with a small but good quality field assembled. Two horse race here in my opinion with the Snowden stable set to dominate and hopefully secure a 1-2 finish in the form of THAT’S A GOOD IDEA @ $3.30+ (SPORTSBET), just ahead one of our personal faves in DUBLIN LASS who will be hitting the line late, but might just run out of ground over the 1100m. Interestingly, Shinn has elected to ride THAT’S A GOOD IDEA, after just missing on DUBLIN LASS down the straight last time. Only two needed in the last leg of the early quaddie.

SUGGEST: THAT’S A GOOD IDEA (WIN) @ $3.30+, QUINELLA (THAT’S A GOOD IDEA, DUBLIN LASS), EXACTA (DUBLIN LASS / THAT’S A GOOD IDEA), FIRST FOUR (1, 3 / F / 1, 3 / F), (F / 1, 3 / 1, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 70%) 

 

Race 6: First leg of the main quaddie and a nice big, competitive field to content with in a benchmark 85 over 1200m. Solid pace up front expected, hence think HOLY DELUSIONS is going to get conditions and pace to suit to swoop late at a very juicy $11+ with most operators. The other one we want to be on is LATIN SALSA at the even juicier $26+ price tag, also with most operators. Form ties in nicely with PALAZZO PUBBLICO from two starts back, beating her home and now meeting at the same weight scale. One is $7+, the other $26+, hence value most definitely in LATIN SALSA’s corner. Goes without saying, we need the pace on up front for both suggestions, and speedmap says we will, and just hoping the track does give backmarkers their chance. By race 6 we’ll know for sure. Main dangers PRESS REPORT and SLOTS, both at juicy $16+ prices. Taking on all those in the market here, with pace key as many will go forward. As a result, looking to play several first fours, with only small %s required for each given expected returns if successful will be beefy.

SUGGEST: HOLY DELUSIONS (EACH WAY) @ $11+, LATIN SALSA (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4 / F / F / 2, 13), (F / 1, 4 / F / 2, 13), (F / F / 1, 4 / 2, 13), (roving bankers 1, 2, 4 / F), (roving bankers 1, 2, 13 / F), (roving bankers 2, 4, 13 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 7: Benchmark 85 over 1500m with another decent sized field assembled, which is good after a month of small fields in Sydney. Decent pace on paper here also, hence, again hoping those midfield or worse are getting their chance as we tip another two here. Keen on HAPPY CLAPPER @ $3.50+ (SPORTSBET) who has been good for Dungeon followers in recent times. We are ultra-keen cox Plate day when we wore down RYKER late, has had a nice trial since, running down LOFIEL, and the trial if anything told me he’s now looking for the longer distance, which he gets here. The very slight query is up to 1500m after a freshen up, but need to trust the stable have him fit enough to run the trip out here. Best value definitely in the form of ELECTRIFYIN’ @ $11+ (LUXBET) with James McDonald committed to the bottom weight ride, which is a good sign. Blowout hope to *THE NEW BOY* at a massive $51+ pricetag (BET365), hence a secondary play there. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers LOFIEL, FINAL DECISION and THE RUMOUR FILE

SUGGEST: HAPPY CLAPPER (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $3.50+, ELECTRIFYIN’ (EACH WAY) @ $11+, *THE NEW BOY* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (8, 10, 12 / 2 / F / 7, 14), (8, 10, 12 / F / 2 / 7, 14) (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

Race 8: Now for the Listed Festival Stakes over 1500m. Concede IT’S SOMEWHAT is the one to beat and could win this easily, but just would have preferred some jar out of the track, as I have a query on some of the Godolphin imports who come to Australia and just seem to struggle on the firmer tracks. i.e. Contributor, Exosphere, etc. A must for multiples, quaddies, etc and if we get some rain, I suggest upgrading him to a standalone play (50% chance of rain at present). However, on the basis we don’t will look deeper and find CENTRE PIVOT as the top pick given the $11+ price with most operators. Also, want to play on I’M IMPOSING at excellent each way odds here at $21+ (most operators) and give a blowout hope to PHEIDON first up at the very juicy $41+ also with most operators. Main dangers are obvious in the form of IT’S SOMEWHAT and FRESPANYOL, both hard to beat and probably worthy of a narrow quaddie leg with the two only, ahead of NINTH LEGION. Good betting race.

SUGGEST: CENTRE PIVOT (EACH WAY) @ $11+, I’M IMPOSING (EACH WAY) @ $21+, PHEIDON (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 3, 9 / F / F / 1, 6, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 85 over 1200m and again solid pace on paper. Again thinking those off the pace might be advantaged, but as always be sure to ensure they are getting their chance in the earlier races. Like GOT THE GOSS here @ $11+ ahead of TURBULENT JET at the same $11+ price. Will make the former (GOT THE GOSS) a BEST VALUE bet of the day. And a secondary play on AGENT at a very juicy $41+. Happy to play around the three. Main dangers RELIGIFY, SURE AND FAST and MOHAVE.

SUGGEST: **GOT THE GOSS** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, TURBULENT JET (EACH WAY) @ $11+, AGENT (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 8 / F / F / 3, 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $22.11+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: ELECTRIC TRIBUTE @ $21+, GOT THE GOSS @ $11+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: INSTRUMENTALIST @ $51+, THE NEW BOY @ $51+

#happypunting