5 November 2015 (Oaks Day racing at Flemington - Headquarters)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2015

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.78 meaning we're currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface (overnight rain must have missed Flemington), however the rain is tumbling down as we speak/type, hence a downgrade is expected. -> Now downgraded as expected to a SOFT (6) -> Now further downgraded to HEAVY (8) after Race 4.

RAIL: +2M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to headquarters again for the third time this week, with the rail remaining out +2M as it was on Tuesday, after being in the TRUE position on Saturday. Have heard Mick Goodie’s explanation once again after two consecutive tracks favoured front runners and as long as the forecast rain comes (seems a certainty) then we should finally be on an even surface, with all runners getting their chance, pace dependant. As important as ever, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: Very even and competitive benchmark 70 to open proceedings on Oaks Day over 1700m. $6 the field in a benchmark 70 means this is far from easy. Pace/tactics key and plenty of guesswork involved. Top pick CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL @ $8.50+ (most operators), thought she was a chance at odds Tuesday in a stronger race before being scratched, so must be a chance here. The other we like is SOLAR BURST @ $14+ (LUXBET, BET365, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) who will appreciate the drop in distance but will need some luck from the wide gate. Happy to take the punt that Craig Williams can find the luck needed and as long as we can get cover, should be hitting the line well. On a dry track would have been all over ROYAL OCEAN @ $31+ (SPORTSBET), however query on a wet track. If the rain doesn’t come and not too soft, then suggest a small play here also.

SUGGEST: CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, SOLAR BURST (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

EARLY QUADDIE (ADDED AT 12:28PM AEDT):

9 / FIELD / 1, 4, 6, 10, 14, 17, 19 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 12, 14

 

Race 2: Now for a benchmark 90 over 1800m. Big watch LIBRAN first time in Australia for Chris Waller. Interestingly, not public trials, hence hard to gauge and possibly after longer trip. Happy to risk, but monitor market and if they are backing it, then a must for savers/early quaddies/etc. BERISHA is the class runner here, however always needs a bit of luck in running, and as a result rock bottom odds at $3.30+ after very solid backing. Happy to leave for multies/savers/possibly even one out in an early quaddie, instead of any standalone big investment. Like LUCKY PADDY @ $8.50+ (SPORTSBET)) and top pick, but by default if I like him, I must like BARON ARCHER who gets a 3kg weight swing for a 0.3L defeat. As a result, $17+ a super price with BET365. SCHERZOSO is the other I like at odds at $14+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET), so keen to play around the three into the fave through first fours. Main danger in addition to hot pot fave BERISHA is PLOT THE COURSE.

SUGGEST: LUCKY PADDY (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, BARON ARCHER (EACH WAY) @ $17+, SCHERZOSO (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (9 / 4, 11 / F / 8, 13), (F / 4, 9, 11 / F / 8, 13), (F / F / 4, 9, 11 / 8, 13) (boxed 3, 4, 8, 9, 13)  (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 90 over 1400m for the greys and this isn’t really the best race you’ll ever see over the carnival. Pretty average and not a race I’m overly keen on but best value looks to be QUICKSILVER LASS @ $15+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). Host of chances after that, in a very deep race, which seems to be the theme of the day.

SUGGEST: QUICKSILVER LASS (EACH WAY) @ $15+, FIRST FOUR (F / 1, 2, 3, 6, 9 / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: Now for the Group 3 Gucci Stakes for the 3YO fillies over 1100m. Let’s hope we’re on an even track today, especially given there is a chance runners will split, some heading to the inside, others the outside rail. Another tough, even affair but have the Sydney invaders on top here in the form of ZARA BAY @ $7.50 (most operators) and OTTOMAN @ $10+ (SPORTSBET). Best value LADY ESPRIT @ $17+ (LUXBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) who trialled very well recent and looks cherry ripe for a first up assault here. Main dangers SECRET AGENDA, LAKE GENEVA, RIAPINKA and LITTLE INDIAN (given we’ve missed the $51 and now into right price, or else would have suggested standalone).

SUGGEST: ZARA BAY (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, OTTOMAN (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $10+, LADY ESPRIT (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 14, 19 / 1, 10 / F / 1, 10, 17), (4, 6, 14, 19 / F / 1, 10 / 1, 10, 17), (roving bankers 1, 10, 17 / F), (roving bankers 1, 17, 19 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Listed race for the three year olds over 1800m. Another deep race, with many chances. Best value with two who will need some luck from wide gates, but juicy enough odds to take the gamble. WAR LEGEND @ $26+ (SPORTSBET) was very good last time in a good form race where he hit the line very well, considering the slow tempo up front, simply needs to find a spot with cover (and an even track) to be a chance here. Then, can also make a case for SEA OF TRANQUILITY @ $26+ (most operators) who jumps out of barrier 17 (not ideal), but hoping Damien Oliver can work some magic. Main dangers LOYALTY MAN, TAVI BAY and the three Hayes’ runners KRYPTONIAN, BULLISH STOCK and BAHEEJ. Taking on the two faves here in RAGNAAR and BENGAL CAT who although being legitimate winning chances, are under the odds here.

SUGGEST: WAR LEGEND (EACH WAY) @ $26+, SEA OF TRANQUILITY (EACH WAY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (2, 5, 7, 8, 14 / F / F / 3, 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6:  Listed Dilmah Earl Grey Stakes down the straight over 1000m. Sorry to sound like a broken record, but another deep, competitive, large field. Top pick **UNANIMOUSLY** here @ $12+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, BET365, TOM WATERHOUSE), thought it had a lot to give last time at the Valley and hopefully today is able to unleash full throttle. Will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Willing to give MAGNUS REIGN @ $21+ (most operators) another chance after failing first up on Cox Plate Day. We didn’t know it at the time, as it was an early race, but was no chance of getting close as a result of going back and peeling wide on a leader dominated track where you needed to be near the rail. Also want a play on KLISHINA @ $17+ (LUXBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, UNIBET), hopefully they go hard up front, and it sets it up for one to swoop late, potentially out wide. Again, trusting an even track.  Main dangers THE QUARTERBACK, NICOSCENE and CASHED.

SUGGEST: **UNANIMOUSLY** (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $12+, MAGNUS REIGN (EACH WAY) @ $21+, KLISHINA (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6, 12 / 3, 10, 18 / F / 3, 10, 18), (F / 1, 3, 6, 10, 12, 18 / F / 3, 10, 18) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

QUADDIE (added at 3:03pm AEDT):

1, 3, 6, 10, 12, 18 / 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10 / 3, 4

 

Race 7: Group 3 G.h Mumm Stakes down the straight over 1100m. This looked probably the one clear cut race of the day with LUMOSTY, however they have decided to take on Chautauqua in the Group 1 Darley Classic on Saturday. As a result, another deep race now. And one of our favourites returns in **DUBLIN LASS**. This girl has been very good to Dungeon followers and fingers crossed she can do exactly what she did first up last time and that is salute at double figure odds (last time $13), this time $10+ (LUXBET). Will make another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then BROOK ROAD @ $7+ who keeps find legitimate excuses, but hopefully gun hoop Hugh Bowman will give her a clear run from 10 and be hitting the line hard. Main dangers MISS PROMISCUITY, THE MESSINA NYMPH and two at big odds in ELOPING and MATILIJA (possible standalone bets if supported in betting)

SUGGEST: **DUBLIN LASS** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, BROOK ROAD (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 1, 9, 10 / F), (roving bankers 4, 9, 10 / F), (roving bankers 8, 9, 10 / F), (roving bankers 9, 10, 20 / F), (roving bankers 1, 4, 20 / F), (roving bankers 1, 8, 20 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

Race 8: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Crown Oaks over 2500m for the 3YO fillies. And arguably the best edition of this race we’ve seen, especially in terms of depth assembled here. Most have this earmarked as a race in 1, 2 or 3, predominately around SACRED EYE, JAMEKA and AMBIENCE, however as much as each of them will be hard to beat, we think this one runs very deep again. Leave those in the market for savers/multies/skinny quaddies. Thought the pumper was every chance of winning one last Group 1 today with DAWNIE PERFECT, but unfortunately not to be with her being scratched this morning. We’ve landed on *ZARABEEL* on top here given the very juicy $31+ price withy CROWNBET. Given the odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.  Then want to play around two who seems to have been somewhat forgotten despite doing very little wrong in HONESTA @ $13 mark with CROWNBET. Finally, small peanut each way on RITZY @ $71+ with LUXBET. Given the massive price will also make a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Cracking race despite the disappointing scratching.

SUGGEST: *ZARABEEL* (EACH WAY) @ $31+, HONESTA (EACH WAY) @ $13+, *RITZY* (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 11 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 11, / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 11 / 5, 9, 10), (1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 11 / 5 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 11 / 5, 9, 10) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9:  We finish with the open Crown Resorts Plate over the mile. And another tough, even, big field on what looks a very difficult day. Especially with a lot of question marks surrounding how much rain we’ll get on the day and how the track will play. Top pick here is BURNING FRONT who we think can return to the winner’s stalls @ $7+ (most operators) for the red hot Weir stable. Best value ZEBRINZ who is down in grade for this, with the main concern being barrier 19, so will need a touch of luck. However, happy to take that gamble at $10+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET). Main dangers

SUGGEST: BURNING FRONT (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7+, ZEBRINZ (EACH WAY) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

EARLY QUADDIE (ADDED AT 12:28PM AEDT):

9 / FIELD / 1, 4, 6, 10, 14, 17, 19 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 12, 14

 

QUADDIE (added at 3:03pm AEDT):

1, 3, 6, 10, 12, 18 / 9, 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10 / 3, 4

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $17.21+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: UNANIMOUSLY @ $12+, DUBLIN LASS @ $10+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: ZARABEEL @ $31+, RITZY @ $71+

  #happypunting