7 November 2015 (Stakes Day racing at Flemington - Headquarters)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

FLEMINGTON

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2015

 

Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 5.22 meaning we're currently looking at a HEAVY (8) surface, however times run late Thursday and minimal rain since, tells us we’re looking closer to a legitimate SOFT (5) or worst case (6).

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to headquarters again for the fourth and final time this week. Fingers crossed we get the even surface we’ve been after but obviously due to issues throughout the past week, it’s as important as ever to keep a very close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races. Gut feel is they will obviously come out wide given the heavy conditions, and wouldn’t shock to see them coming from behind, something that we haven’t seen all week. Let’s just hope all runners finally get their chance.

 

Race 1: We start the final day of the Flemington carnival with a Group 3 for the two year olds down the straight over 1000m. And a damn hard one with many of these trialling very well or showing proven ability at the races already, not to mention a heavy track to content with.  The best thing about this race is we get to watch and learn, in terms of both learning more about these 2YOs and also hopefully to get a clearer guide of where is the place to be. Inside was the place Saturday, Tuesday still the inside but more even, Thursday the outside, hence presumption is the outside again? Hopefully this race will provide us with a good guide.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 90 over 2000m. DIVAN the one to beat and despite the price $2.60+ (LUXBET), happy to play on a WIN only basis. Had omitted him before scratchings, but now comes into play on a standalone basis. Unknown on the wet, although by Zabeel, hence be wary of any noticeable betting drifts. As long as there is solid money consistently, then we’ll play. PRIZUM is the value and main play at a juicy $14+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL). Disappointed by the scratching of HONEY STEEL’S GOLD who was set to get good weight relief off the fave here and a great longshot chance. Hence, the decision to now include DIVAN. Main danger VELOX who has been very well backed in the past 24 hours.

SUGGEST: DIVAN (WIN) @ $2.60+, PRIZUM (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (F / 10 / F / 8), (F / F / 10 / 8), (roving bankers 4, 8, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Group 3 Queen’s Cup over 2600m. And think this is a race in three. Slight lean DANDINO (who is flying just trying to find the right race to win) @ $3+ (LUXBET, BET365) who we suggest on a WIN only basis. Ahead of BEATEN UP @ $6+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). Doesn’t win out of turn, but have no doubt is going as well as ever. The big watch and main danger is Godolphin overseas invader SECRET NUMBER, best of the rest BOLD SNIPER. Note, no third dividend due to insufficient numbers here.

SUGGEST: DANDINO (WIN) @ $3+, BEATEN UP (EACH WAY) @ $6+, FIRST FOUR (3 / 2 / 1 / 5), (3 / 2 / 1 / F), (3 / 2 / F / 1) (roving bankers 1, 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 4: Listed race for the three year olds over 1400m. Tricky, even affair but don’t mind the Melbourne Cup winning combination of Darren Weir and Michelle Payne with PALENTINO @ $5.50+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL). Main danger SECRET PROPHET.

SUGGEST: PALENTINO (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (2 / 10 / F / F), (2 / F / F / 10), (F / 2 / F / 10), (F / F / 2 / 10) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Benchmark 96 over the mile and this one has jumped straight out in the form of KING’S DANCE @ $5.50+ (BET365, CROWNBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, UNIBET). Tricky gate, but have a feeling (hoping) being three wide with cover just might be the place to be tomorrow and if so the barrier might be a blessing in disguise.  Main dangers PETROLOGY, DEFIANT ANGEL and SENTINUM.

SUGGEST: KING’S DANCE (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 4, 6 / F / F / 12), (F / 12 / 1, 4, 6 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6:  Group 1 Darley Classic, one of the most intriguing contests of the spring, even without Exosphere. CHAUTAUQUA all the rage and rightly so. Getting out to a backable price @ $1.75+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) and as a result suggest a WIN only play here. Won’t get things own way here and quality aplenty, but Best horse rule comes into play here. Think TERRAVISTA is the main danger (1 x 4 strategy - small win, larger place) @ $8.50+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET, CROWNBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL), ahead of SRIKANDI and LUMOSTY.

SUGGEST: CHAUTAUQUA (WIN) @ $1.75+, TERRAVISTA (SMALL WIN/LARGER PLACE) @ $8.50+, FIRST FOUR (4, 8, 10 / 2 / F / F), (boxed 2, 4, 8, 10), (roving bankers 4, 8, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 75%)

QUADDIE (ADDED AT 3:32PM AEDT):

4, 8, 10 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 14 /  1, 5, 12 / 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 (smaller %)

2 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 14 /  1, 5, 12 / 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 (larger %)

 

Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 1 Emirates Stakes over the Flemington mile. Plenty of chances as always with these Group 1s over the mile, however equal top picks based on value in ROCK STURDY @ $18+ (most operators) and ECUADOR @ $18+ (BET365). Main dangers BOW CREEK, LUCKY HUSSLER and TURN ME LOOSE.

SUGGEST: ROCK STURDY (EACH WAY) $18+, EQUADOR (EACH WAY) @ $18+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 4 / F / F / 7, 14), (F / 1, 3, 4 / F / 7, 14), (F / F / 1, 3, 4 / 7, 14) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Group 2 Matriarch Stakes over 2000m for the mares. Was super keen on BALLET SUITE here, thought she was close to a good thing, but unfortunately she’s been scratched this morning. As a result, a complete re-assess is required. Have landed on the two at the best value being **IMPERIAL LASS** @ $13+ (BET365) who saluted for Dungeon followers last time at the Valley, and one that is very close to Dungeon’ followers hearts in **CASINO DANCER** @ $11+ (most operators) after the mare saluted at $61 for us two starts back. Is flying and we get a much better price simply due to not having a popular trainer. Given the odds, will make the two our BEST VALUE bets of the day. Main dangers LUCIA VALENTINA, MANAGERESS.

SUGGEST: **CASINO DANCER** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, **IMPERIAL LASS** (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with the open Emirates Airline Handicap over 1400m. Keen on MIRAGE here @ $6.50+ (BET365) for the Moody stable, to potentially finish with a nice double to end the day. Will relish the conditions, was super first up and has second up form. Looks hard to miss with, on an each way basis. Main dangers MALAGUERRA on the quick back up and RELDAS who just needs to translate brilliant Moonee Valley form to Flemington to be hard to beat.

SUGGEST: MIRAGE (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9 / 2 / F / F), (F / 2 / 3, 9 / F), (F / 2 / F / 3, 9), (3, 9 / F / F / 2), (F / 3, 9 / F / 2), (F / F / 3, 9 / 2) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

QUADDIE (ADDED AT 3:32PM AEDT):

4, 8, 10 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 14 /  1, 5, 12 / 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 (smaller %)

2 / 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 14 /  1, 5, 12 / 2, 3, 7, 9, 10 (larger %)

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds $8.72+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: CASINO DANCER @ $11+, IMPERIAL LASS @ $13+

 

BEST MULTI(S):

CHAUTAUQUA / CASINO DANCER / MIRAGE @ $125+

CHAUTAUQUA / IMPERIAL LASS / MIRAGE @ $148+

 

  #happypunting