ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 12, 2015
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer currently 5.04, so looking at a GOOD (4) surface.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT) Back to Royal Randwick after racing here last weekend when the rail was in the TRUE position. The rail was off last week and have a feeling, ideal spot might be a few off the fence, but hopefully quite even giving most their chance, pace dependant. As always, keep an eye on early races for best guide and then tempo/speed map in each race the key.
Race 1: We start with a benchmark 85 over 1200m for the fillies and mares with pace/tactics key with not a great deal of pace on paper. Was keen to play on the 3YO filly BUBBLEBERRY first up after impressive trial, but unfortunately has been saved for another day. Was wary of the lack of pace on paper for HOLY DELUSIONS however post scratchings only 6 runners, so shouldn’t be far behind and at $7+ (BET365) a nice each way investment.
SUGGEST: HOLY DELUSIONS (EACH WAY) @ $7+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 2: Class 2 handicap over 1400m and for the most part the bookies seem to have this market right with those right in the market, the best chances. In saying that, have found a couple who look good value in the form of ESTABELLE @ $31+ (BET365) and *RED HOT TANGO* @ $51+ (BET365). Give the odds will make the latter a BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers AFTER ALL THAT, SHUTTER BUG and BANK ON HENRY.
SUGGEST: ESTABELLE (EACH WAY) @ $31+, *RED HOT TANGO* (EACH WAY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 9 / F / F / 10, 11), (F / 4, 6, 9 / F / 10, 11), (F / F / 4, 6, 9 / 10, 11) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Inglis Nursery for the two year olds over 1000m and there looks to be good pace up front which should ensure an entertaining sprinting affair. Happy to give VEGAS STRIP another chance each way @ $16+ (BET365). Liked what I saw on debut and any improvement since should have her right in the mix here and will appreciate the pace on up front. Many dangers, but happy to play around JACKSON, RAFHA’S CHOICE and RAMPAGE in first fours, all around the $10 mark.
SUGGEST: VEGAS STRIP (EACH WAY) @ $16+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4 / F / F / 11), (F / F / 1, 2, 4 / 11), (F / F / 1, 2, 4 / 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: Benchmark 78 over 1400m and think DISGRACEFUL will be hard to beat @ $3.30+ with BETSTAR, BOOKMAKER.COM and LADBROKES. Doesn’t look to be much pace up front, which will suit and should be hard to catch, assuming on pacers are getting their chance. Suggest a play on a WIN only basis. Longer odds chance to LAURIE’S LOVE @ $19+ (SPORTSBET) and good each way value with gun hoop Shinn aboard. Main dangers FRANK WHO, STEAMIN’ and MR ENTERTAINER all at juicy odds. Concede ALEGRIA is every chance and may be too good, however rock bottom odds and no value in my opinion on the back of an average trial.
SUGGEST: DISGRACEFUL (WIN) @ $3.30+, LAURIE’S LOVE (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (6, 7, 8 / 5 / F / 3), (F / 5 / 6, 7, 8 / 3), (6, 7, 8 / F / 5 / 3), (F / 6, 7, 8 / 5 / 3) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 5: Now for the Listed Xmas Cup to be run over 2400m. At first glance I thought this was simple with JIAYUGUAN absolutely flying, however upon closer inspection, not sure it’s so clear cut. The fave is most definitely the one to beat, however will need some luck from the wide draw, pace looks moderate and QUICK STRIKE does get the necessary weight swing to potentially turn the tables. As a result, given the short price, might leave for savers/multiles/etc. In saying that, now looking down a different formline and as a result have landed on LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY at a tidy $8+ each way price with BETSTAR, SPORTSBET, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM and LADBROKES. Then, call me crazy but giving INSTRUMENTALIST @ $41+ (LUXBET, BET365, CROWNBET, UNIBET) one last chance after being extremely poor last time when on at a big price. His best is good enough, but out of form, but just have a feeling he might pull out a performance with noted improvement. Wouldn’t be surprised if they ride more positively. Main dangers JIAYUGUAN, QUICK STRIKE and VILANOVA.
SUGGEST: LUCKY LUCKY LUCKY (EACH WAY) @ $8+, INSTRUMENTALIST (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (3, 5, 6 / F / F / 1, 4), (F / 3, 5, 6 / F / 1, 4), (F / F / 3, 5, 6 / 1, 4) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: Inglis Sprint for the three year olds over 1100m, with speed drawn wide, which should ensure a solid tempo up front. Going to play around two at juicy odds here in DINGHU MOUNTAIN @ $16+ (LUXBET) and LADY SNIPER @ $21+ (LUXBET). Both should appreciate pace on up front and be hitting the line late. Main dangers extremely obvious in HELLBENT ahead of INVINCIBLE HEART and BITBURG.
SUGGEST: DINGHU MOUNTAIN (EACH WAY) @ $16+, LADY SNIPER (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 2, 5, 11 / F), (roving bankers 3, 5, 11 / F), (roving bankers 5, 10, 11 / F) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Now for the feature, the Group 2 Inglis Villiers over the famous Randwick mile and a cracking field assembled. Even tempo, should hopefully give all runners their chance, unless there’s any notable bias, which we will know by now. And a few of our personal faves here, led by our horse of the Spring who has been a money making machine for followers and that’s CASINO DANCER. As usual unwanted in betting given the relatively unknown stable, and $17+ (SPORTSBET) is simply great value. MALICE @ $19+ (BET365) is another we identified for Cox Plate day at 150/1 and ran brilliantly against the bias and this looks ideal and drawn to get a lovely run in transit. Finally, HAPPY CLAPPER is the top pick and suggest a WIN only play @ $4.50+ (BET365). Main dangers PUCCINI and TELEPATHIC.
SUGGEST: HAPPY CLAPPER (WIN) @ $4.50+, CASINO DANCER (EACH WAY) @ $17+, MALICE (EACH WAY) @ $19+, FIRST FOUR (4, 13 / 16 / F / 9, 11), (F / 4, 13, 16 / 4, 13, 16 / 9, 11), (F / F / 4, 13, 16 / 9, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Listed Razor Sharp Handicap over 1200m with a solid pace on paper with the noted leaders drawn wide. Clear top pick here DUBLIN LASS one of our faves and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Extremely hard to beat @ $3.10+ (most operators) and suggest a WIN only play. Best value *HIDDEN WARRIOR* at $41+ (SPORTSBET, BET365, CROWNBET). Given odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Form behind Srikandi and Our Boy Malachi last prep has him in this first up for sure at a silly price. Main dangers PRIVATE SECRETARY, AUSSIES LOVE SPORT and DANCES ON STARS. But think they’ll be making up the numbers behind DUBLIN LASS.
SUGGEST: DUBLIN LASS (WIN) @ $3.10+, *HIDDEN WARRIOR* (EACH WAY) @ $41+, FIRST FOUR (5, 9, 17 / 3 / F / 8), (5, 9, 17 / F / 3 / 8), (F / 3, 5, 9, 17 / 3, 5, 9, 17 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 9: Like two in the lucky last, a benchmark 85 over the mile. The two in question are **RYKER** @ $13+ (BET365) and **INVINZABEEL** @ $9+ (LUXBET, BET365). Main dangers FINAL DECISION, CAPED CRUSADER and HEAVENS ABOVE. Given the odds will make the duo our BEST VALUE bets of the day.
SUGGEST: RYKER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, INVINZABEEL (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (9, 10, 11 / F / F / 2, 12), (F / 9, 10, 11 / F / 2, 12), (F / F / 9, 10, 11 / 2, 12) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Average odds a juicy $18.82+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: RYKER @ $13+, INVINZABEEL @ $9+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: RED HOT TANGO @ $51, HIDDEN WARRIOR @ $41+