19 December 2015 (Racing at Rosehill Gardens)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

ROSEHILL GARDENS

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2015

 

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.6, so currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to ROSEHILL GARDENS for the first time in a few weeks after the rail was previously in the TRUE position. Hoping for a level playing field, pace dependant, but as always be sure to monitor early races for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the two year olds and although there’s a bit of guesswork involved here, it was very difficult to not be impressed by SOUCHEZ’s trial and on the back of that, should be hard to beat here @ $2.90+ with LUXBET. Suggest nothing crazy as there’s always the risk there’s an unknown star debuting, however suggest a play nonetheless on SOUCHEZ on a WIN only basis. Also, want to have a small dabble on one who didn’t trial great on face value in AURORA ROSE, but did like the way she finished late after looking like she would drop out late. Blinkers on for raceday, worth a small dabble at $31+ with BET365.

SUGGEST: SOUCHEZ (WIN) @ $2.90+, AURORA ROSE (EACH WAY) @ $31+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 7), (F / F / 4 / 7) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Next is a benchmark 89 over 1400m and a small, yet competitive field assembled. Pace/tactics key. Last start GOT THE GOSS got the chocolates for Dungeon followers at double figure odds and every chance to repeat the win again, however $4+ not necessarily such great value this time, especially given the jump to 1400m without Shinn aboard. Instead think better value lies with AGENT @ $10+ (most operators) who was not far behind in the same close finish and can turn the tables here with the right run from barrier 2.

SUGGEST: AGENT (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (3 / F / F / 6), (F / 3 / F / 6), (F / F / 3 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

EARLY QUADDIES (ADDED AT 1:16PM AEDT):

F / 4 / F / 2, 3, 4

F / 8, 11 / F / 2, 3, 4

F / 4, 8, 11 / 4, 7 / 2, 3, 4

 

Race 3: Highway Handicap over 1200m and one we backed at juicy odds to just miss a while back ONEMOREGYPSY returns after a 63 day let up. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pace up front, hence should settle in the first few and give them all something to chase at $13+ with BETSTAR, LUXBET, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM & LADBROKES. Also like BOWIE’S BABE @ $10+ with most operators, so happy to play around the two. CLEARLY INNOCENT the obvious one to beat, but poison odds at $1.75+ which I wouldn’t be going near and as a result happy to take on.

SUGGEST: ONEMOREGYPSY (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $13+, BOWIE’S BABE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (F / 4 / F / 8, 11), (F / F / 4 / 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: We then move to a benchmark 77 over 1500m, pace/tactics key again. MARY LOU and CAUTHEN’S POWER the top picks, however not overly enthused by the prices on offer at $3.60+ and $2.80+ respectively. As a result, happy to steer clear at this stage. Possibly leave for a narrow quaddie leg with the two.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 5: Benchmark 69 over 1500m and another small, yet very competitive affair where pace/tactics will be key. Respect BAGGIO who was dominant in the bush last start winning by 6.8L, however now rock bottom odds at $2.80+ in this big step up in class. May blow them away, but happy to risk (leave for multies/saver/possibly one out last leg of early quaddie) at the short price and instead play around a couple who have proven city form at better odds. The two in question are both from the Chris Waller yard, led by SPATZISI @ $4+ (SPORTSBET) who we’ll play on a WIN only basis, ahead of SO WILLIE who struggles to run a bad race and represents great value @ $12+ with most operators.

SUGGEST: SPATZISI (WIN) @ $4+, SO WILLIE (EACH WAY) @ $12+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 2, 3, 4 / F), (F / 3 / F / 2), (F / F / 3 / 2), (4 / 2, 3 / 2, 3 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 6: Benchmark 83 over the 1350m and yes I must sound like a broken record, but another competitive affair, pace/tactics key with minimal pace on paper. Keen to play around a few here all at big odds. **SWEET FIRE** is one we have a bit of time for and despite this possibly being a touch short, similar to Black Jag a few weeks ago, could surprise after an 80 day let up at a juicy $21+ price with BET365. Given the odds, will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Happy to give LUCY’S LOOK another chance despite not getting the weight swing normally required to counteract last start defeat to FITOU. At $26+ with most operators, happy to take on trust in the hope for improvement third up as shows the signs she’s up to this grade. Also want something on *IL MIO DESTINO* @ $61+ (BET365) who has won at similar odds in the past for Dungeon followers and hoping history can repeat here. Could get own way up front, gets to right distance after jumping around in recent times and any advantage to on pacers only enhances her chances. Given the odds, will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers the obvious in I AM ZELADY, FITOU and ELLE LOU. HOLY DELUSIONS is good enough, but can’t get last start flop out of our head when we were on so happy to risk until we see a return to form, but one for wider multiples.

SUGGEST: **SWEET FIRE** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, LUCY’S LOOK (EACH WAY) @ $26+, *IL MIO DESTINO* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, FIRST FOUR (4, 6, 7 / F / F / 1, 9, 10), (4, 6, 7 / 4, 6, 7 / F / 1, 9, 10) (roving 1, 3, 10 / F) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: Benchmark 76 also over 1350m and this is ultra-competitive, but looks a good betting race. Really liked the way **OPEN BOOK** hit the line last time and with the much better draw here, looks excellent each way value at the $9+ mark with both SPORTSBET and BET365. As a result, will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. There doesn’t look to be a lot of pace up front and as a result, don’t see why MR ENTERTAINER can’t dictate again from the wide gate and given them something to catch @ $15+ with BET365. If track favouring leaders, then confidence increases, if not suiting on pacers, then downgrade accordingly. At least we’ll know by Race 7. Blowout hope to *STYLISH LAD* @ $71+ (BETSTAR, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES) who was okay first up at a huge price and hoping Winona Costin takes advantage of gate 1 and places the gelding in the first half of the field. Given the odds will make a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Main dangers SPINNING DAWN (who we’re reluctant to leave out after giving huge site as our Best Longshot last time), MAKE A MARK and WUDANG MOUNTAIN.

SUGGEST: **OPEN BOOK** (EACH WAY) @ $9+, MR ENTERTAINER (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $15+, *STYLISH LAD* (EACH WAY) @ $71+, FIRST FOUR (8, 9, 12 / F / F / 1, 2, 3), (8, 9, 12 / 2 / F / 1, 3) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 8: Penultimate event is a benchmark 80 over 1900m and a tricky race. Have a feeling there might be a bit of pressure up front which affects many in the market, so hoping this might be set up for one to come from off the pace and strong late. Willing to give RYE another chance after disappointing run last time, seemed to miss the boat and get too far back with nothing making up ground late. Gets the right weight swing here and the faster they go up front the better. Just need to ensure those off the pace are getting their chance and by Race 8 we will know. Taking on trust at $8.50+ (BETSTAR, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES) to return to the winner’s stall here. Best value is one we were on last time at odds in AWARD SEASON who ran very well I thought given it was his first run in 987 days! Should strike benefit from the run and if improved, worth a secondary play each way @ $26+ with BET365. Main dangers DANCE OF HEROES, KONTIKI DANE (Both I was keen on, until I realised there might be some extra pressure up front) and THERMOGENIC. If the track ends up favouring on pacers, I’d recommend upgrading DANCE OF HEROES and KONTIKI DANE ahead of the two we have suggested, but given even track, leave as is.

SUGGEST: RYE (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, AWARD SEASON (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $26+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9, 11 / F / F / 1, 13), (3, 9, 11 / 13 / F / 1), (F / 3, 9, 11, 13 / 3, 9, 11, 13 / 1), (F / 3, 9, 11 / 3, 9, 11 / 1, 13) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 85 over the 1200m and again there looks to be decent tempo up front, hence assuming an even track, could be one setup for those coming from behind them late. Concede START WONDERING may blow these away, after trialling very well, but $2.70+ is a touch short for mine for a big standalone investment, so prefer to play through savers/multiples/a one out final quaddie leg. Instead, prefer to take the safer option and play around a few at bigger odds. There are two here first up after both winning trials and have come up silly overs. The two in question are MOUNT NEBO @ $35+ (LUXBET) and IDANCE @ $31+ (SPORTSBET), both more than capable in this grade to win first up. Then was tossing up between TURBULENJT JET and CROOKED BLAZE, but the 1.5kg claim from Winona Costin has been giving CROOKED BLAZE the nod slightly @ $17+ (BET365), given a 2kg pull in the weights for 0.9L defeat last time in what was a very profitable end to the day last timer with GOT THE GOSS saluting as our Best Value of the day at double figure odds. Main dangers TURBULENT JET (given above), MAHICAN and SUPREME EFFORT all at double figure odds. Wide finish.

SUGGEST: MOUNT NEBO (EACH WAY) @ $35+, IDANCE (EACH WAY) @ $31+, CROOKED BLAZE (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (3, 8, 12 / F / F / 2, 6, 13), (3, 8, 12 / 2, 6, 13 / F / 2, 6, 13), (F / 2, 6, 13 / 3, 8, 12 / 2, 6, 13) (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

EARLY QUADDIES (ADDED AT 1:16PM AEDT):

F / 4 / F / 2, 3, 4

F / 8, 11 / F / 2, 3, 4

F / 4, 8, 11 / 4, 7 / 2, 3, 4

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds a juicy $22.41+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: SWEET FIRE @ $21+, OPEN BOOK @ $9+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: IL MIO DESTINO @ $61+, STYLISH LAD @ $71+

  #happypunting