ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 26, 2015
Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer currently reading 5.05, currently looking at a GOOD (3) surface, however a there’s been nearly 30mm this morning and more in progress, so a downgrade expected. -> Update at 12:23pm AEDT = Peno 5.41 = SOFT (5).
RAIL: +2M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We head to CAULFIELD for the first time in a while with the rail out +2M. Hoping for an even track, and we would have expected it, however will now with the heavy rain, assume they will get off the fence, especially as the day goes on and as a result wider positions in the run with cover could be the place to be. As always, be sure to keep a close eye on the track and how it’s playing in the early races for best guide, especially given the average looking forecast.
Race 1: We start with the three year old fillies over 1400m. Tough start especially if the rain comes, with some guesswork as to who will handle the track after the heavy rain Saturday morning. Best value looks to lie with MISS CLOONEY @ $7.00+ with LUXBET. Main dangers the obvious in the form of VALIDATE. Note, no third dividend given the scratchings.
SUGGEST: MISS CLOONEY (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (2 / F / 5 / F), (F / 2 / 5 / F), (F / F / 2 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Joe Brown Plate for the two year olds over 1100m and given limited race experience, fair bit of guesswork once again here. Liked the way PONTE ROMA finished on debut and given the each way price, happy to have a small play there @ $8.00+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Liked what I saw with HELLBOUND, and buoyed by comments from Mick Price last week saying HELLBOUND same level as impressive Inglis Nursery winner Extreme Choice, so you would think set to run very well here. A good option for multies/doubles, etc @ $4+.
SUGGEST: PONTE ROMA (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FIRST FOUR (5 / F / F / 8), (F / 5 / F / 8), (F / F / 5 / 8) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Benchmark 90 over 2000m and a very competitive affair on face value. Like the look of YULONG BABY @ $5.50+ (most operators) who has caught my eye in recent times and might jump aboard for the first time as she looks ready after a couple of narrow defeats this prep. Best value with one of ours in TO BE HONEST @ $17+ (SPORTSBET), many dangers in an open race, but the main ones are YELLEN as well as the Weir pair SABOR A TRIUNFO and PORTE COCHERE. Deep race.
SUGGEST: YULONG BABY (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, TO BE HONEST (EACH WAY) @ $17+, FIRST FOUR (1, 3, 5 / F / F / 2, 8), (1, 3, 5 / 8 / F / 2), (1, 3, 5 / F / 8 / 2), (F / 1, 3, 5 / 1, 3, 5 / 2, 8) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Another benchmark 90 this time over the 1400m and ANAPHORA looks a standout at the weights here and as a result becomes very hard to beat. Was hoping they might miss her in the early markets, but they rightfully didn’t and $3.10+ (BET365) is the right odds and worthy of a WIN only play. Best value SENSE AND REASON @ $13+ (BETSTAR, BET365, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU) who can improve on an expected wetter track, but like most not weighted well against ANAPHORA meeting her at the same weights for a 4.1L defeat. Main dangers WHISTLE BABY (if not too wet), SINO EAGLE (who will need luck from the wide gate) and DANESTROEM (too good for top pick here last time but big weight increase, despite claim).
SUGGEST: ANAPHORA (WIN) @ $3.10+, SENSE AND REASON (EACH WAY) @ $13+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 5 / 9 / F / 4), (F / 9 / 1, 2, 5 / 4), (F / 1, 2, 5 / 9 / 4) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 5: Yet another benchmark 90, this time over the shorter 1100m distance. Not overly keen on many of those at the top of the market here for various reasons and as a result happy to play around three at juicy odds. The three in question are LAGO GIRL @ $16+ (BET365), ZAMBEZI DIAMOND @ $17+ (SPORTSBET) and DOWN THE HATCH @ $16+ (LUXBET). Best of all, all with form on a heavier track, should that eventuate. Main dangers are the three at the top of the weights in BRAVE JOURNEY, CELERITAS and PINK PERFECTION.
SUGGEST: LAGO GIRL (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $16+, ZAMBEZI DIAMOND (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $17+, DOWN THE HATCH (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $16+, , FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 3 / F / F / 4, 8, 11), (F / 1, 2, 3 / F / 4, 8, 11), (F / F / 1, 2, 3 / 4, 8, 11) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: Benchmark 78 for the three year olds over 1200m and a highly competitive affair with many legitimate winning chances. Have come out with BADAJOZ on top here @ $7+ (LUXBET), with the very handy 3kg claim by Dylan Dunn. Gives him the right weight swing on several key rivals here to be turning the tables, does need a touch of luck from the gate but wide with cover could be the place to be if the rain comes and the rail is off as the day goes on. And is one of few proven on a softer track, with many unknown given limited race experience. Best value most definitely in the form of CHASE THE HORIZON @ $21+ (BET365), representing great each way value. Main dangers most definitely COOL SNITZEL (wet unknown, gate 14, but is flying and could be the best here), CRYSTAL DREAMER and RUNSON (both dominant at provincials, can they step straight up to city grade?).
SUGGEST: BADAJOZ (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7+, CHASE THE HORIZON (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (2, 8, 10 / 1 / F / 6), (F / 1 / 2, 8, 10 / 6), (F / 2, 8, 10 / 1 / 6) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Benchmark 78 over 1800m and this looks tough. If we’re running on a GOOD track, then I am super keen on GOLDEN MANE@ $5+, however based on current forecast that sounds unlikely. Hence, the assumption we’re on rain affected going, prefer to play around **VINTAGE LAD** @ $21+ (SPORTSBET) and WINSTON DRIVE @ $21+ (LUXBET, BET365). Given the odds will make VINTAGE LAD a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main danger WARRIOR KING, who warrants a lot of respect, but rock bottom odds and LEICA DAY. If dry, GOLDEN MANE and BELORUM come into contention bigtime (GOLDEN MANE top pick if GOOD), but on the expected softer track, happy to risk.
SUGGEST: **VINTAGE LAD** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, WINSTON DRIVE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FIRST FOUR (10, 11 / F / F / 16, 17), (F / 10, 11 / F / 16, 17), (F / F / 10, 11 / 16, 17) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Now for the first of two feature events at Caulfield, starting with the Listed Christmas Stakes over 1200m, and another open, very competitive affair. Slight lean **OFFICE BEARER** @ $7.50+ (LUXBET) who hasn’t won for a while (since March, 2014) but looks to be ready to return to the winner’s stall after a couple of placings this prep over 1000m. Just needs to recapture form of 4 starts back in Group 2 QTC Cup when 1.7L 4th behind Ball of Muscle, That’s a Good Idea and Kuro. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day and our primary investment. Just ahead of TUSCAN SLING also at $7.50+ (BET365) who was unlucky in weaker grade last time and is good enough to measure up here despite a wide gate, on the assumption the rain comes and the fence is off and potentially suiting those wide with cover where I think she’ll be. We’ll know by Race 8. Finally, want to have something on GENERAL GROOVE @ $14+ (BET365). Given the odds, suggest primary plays OFFICE BEARER and TUSCAN SLING (to WIN) and secondary play GENERAL GROOVE on the each way. Main dangers the obvious in RELDAS (may be too good, but rock bottom odds), SISTINE DEMON who I really wanted to include but last run was poor, although I think much better around a bend, and TADDEI TONDO. Deep race.
SUGGEST: **OFFICE BEARER** (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $7.50+, TUSCAN SLING (WIN) @ $7.50+, GENERAL GROOVE (EACH WAY) @ $14+, FIRST FOUR (2, 4, 8 / 3, 10 / F / 5), (2, 4, 8 / F / 3, 10 / 5), (F / 2, 4, 8 / 3, 10 / F / 5), (F / 3, 10 / 2, 4, 8 / 5) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 9: Now for the second feature of the day, the Listed Swettenham Stud Lord Stakes run over 1700m. May sound like a broken record, but another tricky, open and competitive affair and a big field to boot. Equal top picks I want to play around are METAPHORICAL @ $8.50+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, LUXBET) and HELD HOSTAGE @ $9.50+ (BET365) once we have had some lucky with in the past when making the trip across the border from Adelaide. Main dangers JACQUINOT BAY (one of our faves, who I wanted in, but just couldn’t squeeze into standalone suggestions), TASHBEEH (if dry becomes top pick) and if the rain really comes down (closer to heavy track) would also include LORD ATHENAEUM.
SUGGEST: METAPHORICAL (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, HELD HOSTAGE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 3, 6, 8 / F), (roving bankers 6, 8, 11 / F), (roving bankers 6, 8, 15 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 10: We finish a massive card with a benchmark 84 over 1400m and Mick Price looks to have a massive hand with three major chances led by top pick DUKE OF BRUNSWICK @ $3.50+ (most operators) who we suggest on a WIN only basis. I actually really like the value on offer for top weight *FREE AND FAST* @ $51+ (BET365), who will be the forgotten of the three Price runners, who gets in very nicely after the very handy 3kg claim by Dylan Dunn. Given the odds will make our standalone BEST LONGSHOT of the day. Main dangers VOLCANISH ASH (the third of the Price runners, note Oliver rides DUKE, however gets 2kg claim from Dee) and LIVE for TODAY.
SUGGEST: DUKE OF BRUNSWICK (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.50+, *FREE AND FAST* (E/W - SECONDARY) @ $51+, FIRST FOUR (7, 8 / 5 / F / 1), (7, 8 / F / 5 / 1) (F / 7, 8 / 5 / 1), (F / 5 / 7, 8 / 1), (roving bankers 1, 5, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Average odds a juicy $13.81+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: VINTAGE LAD @ $21+, OFFICE BEARER @ $7.50+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: FREE AND FAST @ $51+