ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2015
Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with the penetrometer currently 5.19, so looking at a GOOD (4) surface, with fine weather forecast.
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT) Back to Royal Randwick after a well earned break, with the rail back to the TRUE position. As always, keep an eye on early races for best guide and then tempo/speed map in each race the key.
Race 1: Start with the two year olds over 1000m and a bit of guesswork involved here. REGIMENTAL FORCE opened short and well backed at $1.65+ and as followers would know, that doesn’t really interest us. Interestingly, ASTERN has apparently had good support for the Golden Slipper which is always a nice sign. In saying that, it’s very much a watch and learn for us, and will be steering clear of any investments at this stage.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 2: Open event for the three year olds over 1400m and as the market suggests (7 of 8 runners 12/1 or less), a very even affair. Looks to be even tempo, nothing major which should hopefully give all runners their chance. Best value most definitely lies with FEAST FOR EYES here at $9+ (UNIBET) with the big drop in weight the big plus. Obviously in the best interests of both horses to ensure FEAST FOR EYES and TRIPLE SNITZ don’t get into any speed battle and if so will give them something to catch. Main dangers the one just mentioned in TRIPLE SNITZ who has done nothing wrong to date (2 out of 2), while the class looks to be TARQUIN first up and may well be too good for them here. TORGERSON won’t be far away, but would have preferred over 1500m after win last start.
SUGGEST: FEAST FOR EYES (EACH WAY) @ $9+, FIRST FOUR (1, 6 / F / F / 5) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 3: Benchmark 77 over 2000m and this one does look relatively straight forward with only two winning chances in RYE and KONTIKI DANE despite taking on the boys. Top pick RYE who looks well suited here and expecting to be very hard to beat at $2.80+ (BET365). Suggest an each way play, as well as secondary on KONTIKI DANE who looks set to get a soft lead up front @ $4.20+ with most operators. Would only take the two in the early quaddie if playing.
SUGGEST: RYE (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $2.80+, KONTIKI DANE (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $4.20+, QUINELLA (RYE, KONTIKI DANE) (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 4: Now for the class 2 over 1100m and this looks tough with speed map tricky to nail, with the potential for several to go forward or back from wide gates. They all go forward, then it sets it up for a backmarker, alternatively, several go back unexpectedly and one of the main chances on the pace pinches a race winning lead. Slight lean here on ROSE OF MAN given the better than expected $9+ price with most operators. Then give a blowout hope to DIVERSIFIER @ $67+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Main dangers CLEARLY INNOCENT, NORTHERN FURY, NOBLE JOEY and SHUTTERBUG.
SUGGEST: ROSE OF MAN (EACH WAY – PRIMARY) @ $9+, DIVERSIFIER (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $67+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 2, 4, 9 / F), (roving bankers 4, 5, 9 / F), (roving bankers 4, 9, 10 / F), (roving bankers 4, 9, 11 / F) \(CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Benchmark 93 over 1400m. Narrowed this down to two also, given the expected slow tempo up front. Top pick and the one to beat most definitely GAMBLESTOWN who is absolutely flying. $3.30+ with SPORTSBET a good price and suggest on a WIN only basis. The other I can have here given the potential picnic he might get up front is SLATE ON EDGE. $11+ with BET365 a good each way price for this. Main danger WINE TALES who loves teasing but doesn’t win often enough. Gets in nicely here, but the lack of pace is a concern.
SUGGEST: GAMBLESTOWN (WIN) @ $3.30+, SLATE ON EDGE (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FIRST FOUR (roving bankers 2, 6, 7 / F), (F / 6 / F / 2) (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 6: Benchmark 78 for the fillies and mares over 1400m. We were on **ALL CERISE** last time and quite stiff in my humble opinion, and see now reason to jump off here. Missed the start, made up ground, copped interference in the straight, but loved the way she finished considering. Blake Shinn jumps aboard and $10+ (SPORTSBET) is simply great value each way. Confident she can be right in the finish as long as she jumps cleanly. Given the odds will make a BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers LA SPECIALE, AMMIRATA, LUCY’S LOOK and ZELDA.
SUGGEST: **ALL CERISE** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, FIRST FOUR (3, 9, 10, 11 / F / F / 4) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Benchmark 85 over 1000m and the pace looks red hot on paper, especially early on. Very even and competitive affair and have come up with two equal top picks in the form of **SELECTIFY** @ $10+ (LUXBET) and INSIDE JOB @ $7.50+ (CROWNBET, BET365). Given the odds, will makeSELECTIFY another BEST VALUE bet of the day. Main dangers MAHICAN and FELINES.
SUGGEST: **SELECTIFY** (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $10+, INSIDE JOB (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, FIRST FOUR (2, 7 / F / F / 1, 4), (2, 7 / 1, 4 / F / F), (boxed 1, 2, 4, 7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Benchmark 77 over the mile. CAUTHEN’S POWERbrained them last time for Dungeon followers at a juicy price, and although we won’t be getting anything near the $8 we secured, I think we might be collecting once again, this time at $2.90+ with most operators. Suggest on a WIN only basis. Main dangers stablemate INVINZABEEL (Waller quinella) and CAPED CRUSADER who was given no chance last time leading at a breakneck tempo.
SUGGEST: CAUTHEN’S POWER (WIN) @ $2.90+, QUINELLA/EXACTA (INVINZABEEL/CAUTHEN’S POWER), FIRST FOUR (F / 2, 5, 7 / 2, 5, 7 / F) (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 9: We finish with a benchmark 78 over 1200m and an extremely tough and open one. Personally, think there’s a lot more depth than many would think here with legitimate queries surrounding many of those in the market. Hoping for the pace to be on, and confidence simply increases if runners are making ground from the rear as the day goes on, as many of these will get back. As a result, going to play around several at big odds and suggest a wide end to your quaddies. Four in total that I’m interested in starting with CAESAR AUGUSTUS @ $17+ with BET365, first up here. This is not an overly strong event and ran some very useful races last prep to be right in this. Next is SPINNING DAWN also first up @ $41+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, BETSTAR, BET365), did enough in recent trial to run a cheeky race here. Next is *QUEENIAN* @ $71+ with most operators. The only one of the four not first up (third up this campaign), after a good first up run, then had excuses last time in a good race. Given the price, happy to forgive last time and wouldn’t be the first horse to struggle second up. Finally, give *STYLISH LAD* a chance first up where you can wrote your own ticket with most operators (@ $151+ with BET365). Given the crazy odds will make the latter two (*QUEENIAN* & *STYLISH LAD*) our BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day.
SUGGEST: CAESAR AUGUSTUS (EACH WAY) @ $17+, SPINNING DAWN (EACH WAY) @ $41+, *QUEENIAN* (EACH WAY) @ $71+, *STYLISH LAD* (EACH WAY) @ $151+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Average odds a juicy $29.46+ per suggested runner!
** BEST VALUE **: ALL CERISE @ $10+, SELECTIFY @ $10+
*BEST LONGSHOTS*: QUEENIAN @ $71+, STYLISH LAD @ $151+