14 February 2015 (Royal Randwick)

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with penetrometer at 5.21, meaning we're on a GOOD (4).

RAIL: TRUE ENTIRE CIRCUIT (We normally associate the rail back in the TRUE at Randwick with an advantage to be off the fence and making ground off the pace, especially as the day goes on. Be sure to monitor early races to confirm if this is the case or not).

NOTE: Going through the different operators today, looks as though LADBROKES and BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU are willing to offer some great prices as summarised below so could be worth taking advantage of current promos and most importantly cash in on these better prices.

 

Race 1: Tricky little race to start. Have come up with SPY DECODER on top first up back to a BM80 after taking on much and being competitive in much better company last prep. Now out to a tidy price $4.80+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU) after opening around $3.30 so now worth the gamble first up on class alone with gun hoop McDonald aboard. Goes without saying that the harder they go up front the better.

SUGGEST: SPY DECODER (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Wanted to have a play at one at odds here in GOSH but unfortunately a scratching and as a result, the market seems to match our thinking here. GEORGEY AEROPLANE on top @ $2.90+ (most operators), back to the 2400m and after three runs this prep, should be ready to fire with Bowman aboard. Maion danger is LAST WISH who can definitely win this on the back of last start win and also respect KOROIBETE. Be surprised if the winner doesn’t come out of those.

SUGGEST: GEORGEY AEROPLANE (WIN) @ $2.90+, LAST WISH (SAVERS, MULTIPLES) @ $5.50+

 

Race 3: And now the Lonhro Plate for the 2YOs over 1100m. On face value it’s absolutely dominated by Godolphin but we’re going to take them on here (crazy some would say), but little value in them given the apparent quality assembled here. They key here is pace and if there is enough pressure up front we think this could be set up for something at odds to come around them late. On paper there looks to be plenty however a few of these are from the Godolphin stable (including $2 pop FURNACES) so don’t be surprised if a few settle further back today. Either way, we’re banking on a decent clip up front and as a result we’ve landed on WOLF CRY @ $15+ (SPORTSBET) who looks great each way value. Also suggest something on the Hawkes’ Racing first starter in MUHEEB @ $18+ (TAB SPORTSBET). Golden Slipper/2YO picture to be a lot clearer after this one.

SUGGEST: **WOLF CRY** (EACH WAY) @ $15+, MUHEEB (EACH WAY) @ $18+. (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Intriguing affair here with a mix of in-form runners and those returning from a break which is never easy. Market again looks unfortunately in line with our thinking (i.e. no runners slipping out to double figures unexpectedly) and think the top 4 here will be HOT SNITZEL, DRIEFONTEIN, BULL POINT, and TERRITORY. In saying that, we think TERRITORY @ $4.60+ (most operators) comes into this best at the weights and should be ready to win third up after a shortened break (not technically a spell). Looking for $1.80+ place to play each way, if not would need to settle for the WIN only.

SUGGEST: TERRITORY (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+, add DRIEFONTEIN, BULL POINT, HOT SNITZEL into SAVERS/MULTIPLES (i.e. FIRST FOUR SAVER (2,3,5/2,3,5,7/2,3,5,6,7/2,3,5,6,7) (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: And now the card really kicks into full swing with the Light Fingers. What a super race! If you are unsure, just sit back watch closely and learn as a lot of winners in the coming week/months may be coming out of this race. At first we thought we would be landing on ONEMOREZETA on top given most others will be better suited over longer/later, but just can’t go past one we love in FIRST SEAL @ $3.20+ (most operators). Could not have been more impressive last time out and ‘light’ fingers crossed she’s come back bigger and better. Trial was excellent but time to convert that back on the track. As mentioned, main danger ONEMOREZETA for reasons mentioned although we think she’s now hit what we would consider her rock bottom price in this quality field at $7+. Sit back and enjoy.

SUGGEST: FIRST SEAL (WIN) @ $3.20+, ONEMOREZETA (SAVER) @ $7+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 6: If the Light Fingers wasn’t enough to excite (if so, please check your pulse) then the Group 2 Apollo Stakes should definitely get you going. A lack of pace on paper has us leaning towards those on/closer to the pace despite the fact that we think the track might suit those coming around them later. As a result, be sure to monitor races leading up and amend if required. We’ve come out with **NINTH LEGION** on top here @ $9+ (most operators) and will make it our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney. Then give fluker’s hopes to a couple at big odds in MALAVIO @ $26+ (most operators) and QUEENSTOWN who you can almost write your own ticket for @ $81+ (SPORTSBET, BETEASY). Most scared of HE’S YOUR MAN who is a must for quaddies, however you can’t back them all.

SUGGEST: **NINTH LEGION** (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, MALAVIO (EACH WAY) @ $26+, QUEENSTOWN (EACH WAY) @ $81+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Now onto the Group 3 Triscay for the mares and as usual with the group mare races a very even and tricky affair. Pace key here, with several normally suited to going forward, but pending how track is playing, some may prefer to take softer runs instead which can always result in a slower than expected pace. We think best value lies with MAHARA first up after really stepping up last time out. $9+ on offer with SPORTSBET, LADBROKES and BOOKMAKER.COM.AU which we think is excellent each way value. Also suggest a smaller play on THUMP who is out to an attractive price @ $14+ with the William Hill operators (CENTREBET, SPORTINGBET, TOM WATERHOUSE).

SUGGEST: MAHARA (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $9+, THUMP (EACH WAY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 8: Tricky finale with again some decent pace on paper. We’ve come out with SNIPPET’S LAND on top at a tidy $4.80+ quote with LADBROKES and BOOKMAKERS.COM.AU. Looks an excellent each way investment. Also suggest a secondary play on BLACK REVOLVER at $21+ currently on offer with SPORTSBET which we doubt will last long. Much shorter elsewhere.

SUGGEST: SNIPPET’S LAND (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, BLACK REVOLVER @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE: NINTH LEGION @ $9+

*BEST LONGSHOT: QUEENSTOWN @ $81+

 

Average odds of a very juicy $16.33+ per suggested runner (does not include ‘saver/multiples’ suggestions).

 

#HAPPYPUNTING