21 February 2015 (Flemington)

Racing at headquarters (FLEMINGTON) with penetrometer reading 4.85, meaning we're on a GOOD (4).

RAIL: TRUE ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Usually (pace dependant) we would say you definitely want to be coming from off the pace away from the fence in the TRUE at Headquarters, however the forecast warm weather in Melbourne should hopefully assist those on pace and nearer to the fence, to hopefully even things out. As usual, monitor early races to identify any apparent patterns as the day goes on. Overall, don’t expect any disadvantage to be off the pace and off the fence, hence don’t be putting an automatic pen through those with wide gates.)

Before we start, just a reminder that we have the following promo exclusive to ASP Dungeon that expires at midday today. See link below for details but #freemoney on offer where you deposit $25 and have an additional 3 x $25 free bets added to your account = $100 to bet with. Fantastic offer but only available this morning:

http://www.puntingdungeon.com.au/sport-tips/2015/2/19/special-asp-dungeon-bonus-offer

 

Race 1: Tempted to leave, however we’re dealing with 2YOs (some unraced) down the straight, so always a risk backing those who are untried down the straight. In saying that, we’ve found one here who we think is over the odds at $13+ in TAKE PRIDE who we are willing to excuse for last start flop at these odds when she hung badly and hoping the visor on today avoids a similar occurrence. Not to mention she is proven down the straight after winning on New Years Day in decent time. Hard race, but going to have a dabble each way here. Big watch/monitor betting on STAY WITH ME on debut for Hayes & Dabernig.   

SUGGEST: TAKE PRIDE (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Keen on TOOLEYBUCK KID here at $4.80+ who looks a fantastic each way bet here. Hard to beat and gets the luxury of a 2kg claim with Childs aboard; hard to beat. The other who is running extremely well (although can’t make sense of the constant distance merry go round) is CRAFTY CRUISER who is worthy of a small dabble at the juicy $19+ price.

SUGGEST: TOOLEYBUCK KID (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, CRAFTY CRUISER (EACH WAY) @ $19+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)

 

Race 3: Slightly wary of anything leading today, however WAWAIL looks the clear top pick and there does look to be minimal pace on paper. Hard to beat @ $2.25, hence WIN only bet given the price. Should kick on the turn and hopefully set up a race winning lead. Give FENWAY a sneaky chance first up @ $8+.

SUGGEST: WAWAIL (WIN) @ $2.30+, FENWAY (EACH WAY) @ $8+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)

 

Race 4: Have found one here who we think is big overs @ $17+ in **NICOMORAE** who is our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Melbourne. Not an easy race, but keen at the price. ANTARCTIC MISSILE hardest to beat down the straight again and suggest WIN only play @ $4+. Main dangers TAWTEEN, CHLOE IN PARIS and RUNWAY STAR.

SUGGEST: **NICOMORAE** (EACH WAY) @ $17+, ANTARCTIC MISSILE (WIN) @ $4+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Not overly keen on the race, but do have REFULGENT @ $4.40+ on top and given how we expect track to play, don’t think the bad barrier and going back to near last will be a major concern.

SUGGEST: REFULGENT (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 6: Super race! Dungeon followers will know we are a huge fan of STRATUM STAR who we think is the ‘best horse’ here. Heart says to just back him standalone, but our head is concerned with the wide gate and the need to either sit right on the pace /lead or sit wide without cover; and in a race that looks to have decent pace on paper. Given this is race 6, we can watch and learn before committing. Regardless, think DISPOSITION @ $5.50+ gets the better run and race sets up for Williams to peel wide and swoop from midfield/STRATUM STAR’S back and be hard to beat. STRATUM STAR @ $5+ we think is the ‘best horse’, hence WIN play is required. Race doesn’t end there (quaddies, multiples) but think that’s where our money will be.

SUGGEST: DISPOSITION (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, STRATUM STAR (WIN) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: And now for the feature in what looks to be a classic heavyweight bout between the champ who has done it before (LANKAN RUPEE) and the up and comer (DEEP FIELD) who just loves smashing the clock every time he sets foot on the track. We are finding it hard to split the two and call us stupid (we’re shaking our heads as we type) but we want to have a small go at THE QUARTERBACK @ $34+. His times up the straight have been good and gets in well enough at the weights for those runs and if they go a bit crazy up front, you just never know. We may change depending on betting/odds closer to jump time, but at this stage thinking a smaller play each way/multiples with the main two instead. For what it’s worth, we lean towards DEEP FIELD overall, however the market reflects this and as a result not enough value at the current price in our opinion. That obviously might change. Should be super viewing regardless.

SUGGEST: THE QUARTERBACK (EACH WAY) @ $34+, DEEP FIELD/LANKAN RUPEE (MULTIPLES/MULTIES) (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

Race 8: Tricky race, but have MAGNUS REIGN on top. If he replicates his last start win down the straight he should be right in the finish here at decent $7.50+ each way odds. Concern if any is the possibility they won’t go too hard up front and as a result suggest a go also on HARD STRIDE @ $6.50+ in the event the leaders pinch a race winning lead. If there was decent pace on paper we would definitely be throwing in SINGLE DAYS who flew home last start for Dungeon followers at odds for 3rd, but just have a feeling he runs out of ground once again. Must for quaddies.

SUGGEST: MAGNUS REIGN (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, HARD STRIDE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 9: Tough finish to the day where pace/tactics will be key. We were looking to steer clear, however have identified one here very much over the odds in *PETITE DIABLESSE* who demands a play at the very juicy $31+ price-tag. BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Melbourne.

SUGGEST: *PETITE DIABLESE* (EACH WAY) @ $31+ (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE: NICAMORAE @ $17+

* BEST LONGSHOT: PETITE DIABLESE @ $31+

Average odds of $11.57+ per suggested runner (does not include ‘saver/multiples’ suggestions).

 

#HAPPYPUNTING