21 February 2015 (Rosehill Gardens)

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with penetrometer reading 4.68, meaning we're on a GOOD (3), however as we type some rain in Sydney. Be sure to monitor track condition, especially prior to the first and update accordingly.

RAIL: +6M ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Rail was out +3M 2 weeks ago (7/2/15) and as a result was expecting there to be no disadvantage to be on the pace, close to the fence, however this is now dependant on how much/how long this rain remains for. In saying that, not expecting any major bias and hopefully all runners get their chance, pace dependant.

 

Race 1: On face value, KENCELLA @ $3.20+ looks primed first up, after bolting in a trial by a lazy 13L, on a track that should be no disadvantage on the pace and on the fence, and that’s where he’ll be. However, upon closer inspection there is some decent depth in this race. INSIDE JOB should get the sit behind the fave, gets in nicely at the weights and a big chance, TAHITIAN BLACK flying (although meets INSIDE JOB worse at the weights for narrow victory) and EARNEST ERNEST has the class although will need the pace on up front. In summary, not enough value at the current price(s), hence at this stage we will steer clear. This may change closer to the race, hence keep an eye on website (puntingdungeon.com.au) / Facebook / Twitter pages.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Tricky race. Similar to race 1, no apparent great value at this stage. Our speed map has them going out at a decent clip, which may just set it up for something to peel out from behind them at the right time and come around them. Timing/tactics critical here so pays to be on a decent jockey. We have LAW (gelded, trialled well) and ORUJO just on top with slight lean ORUJO who at $5.50+ is good enough to play, although not super confident. Many chances and McDonald does ride the stablemate SHAUMARI, who also trialled well in same trial as LAW.

SUGGEST: ORUJO (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 3: Intriguing little affair where we think is much more even than some think. Tactics/pace key. At this stage leaning towards AVOID LIGHTNING to upset CATKINS but no obvious value and as a result prefer to see them in yard and see how track plays first two before deciding on whether to make an outlay here or not. Slight concern if any with AVOID LIGHTNING is 1300m first up, but trust the stable have the fitness in the legs and was absolutely brilliant in a trial recently. Also, not ruling out MARDI up in grade, but prefer to wait until closer to race time.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 4: Pace/tactics here again key. Could not have been more impressed with TALES OF GRIMM first time in Aus and he looks set for a big Autumn. In saying that, think he’s unders at $3.80+ and at this stage inclined to risk today. Instead, we’ve found something at massive overs in *NOTHING LIKE LUKA*. Run last time was much better than it looked in a swooper dominated race and meets OXPORT POET better at the weights for narrow defeat two back. Hardly a good thing but at $51+ keen on an each way play. No surprise he is our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: *NOTHING LIKE LUKA* (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 5: Small but intriguing field assembled for the Silver Slipper, where the Golden Slipper picture will become much clearer straight after. OTTOMAN was incredible first up when nothing went right, but pulled herself off the canvas for a simply breathtaking victory. Really want to play today as she’s getting out to a good price $2.80+, but barrier 8 is the concern, however gun hoop McDonald aboard which is always a plus. Then, there’s the fact that several others here have done nothing wrong to date. As a result, at this stage we won’t suggest anything but this may change after we see them in the mounting yard. Unfortunately, seems to be the case with several races at Rosehill today.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 6: And that brings us to a brilliant edition of the Hobartville. Class everywhere you look with many up and coming potential superstars going to battle. Many will know we were very bullish about **SHOOTING TO WIN** in the Spring with the pinnacle being backing him with confidence to knock off Rich Enuff who was low flying and we’re sticking with him here @ $5.50+ (SPORTINGBET). The Snowdens know they have the profile now after claiming the prestigious Caulfield Guineas hence simply must perform each time he races to maximise price tag as a stallion. Awkward gate (10) the concern, but hoping class and in our opinion the best hoop in the business (Shinn) aboard hoping we slot into a nice towards the pace and if so will be hard to beat. Normally, prefer better odds but @ $5.50+ good enough for a star to be our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: **SHOOTING TO WIN** (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Hard race, prefer to wait and see how track is playing which will no doubt be dependent on Sydney weather in the next couple of hours and if we get keen on anything we will let all know like usual later on.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 8: Tricky finish to what we consider to be a very difficult card today at Rosehill. As we’ve said tactics key in many races, so for the most part we will be watching and learning early, before deciding whether to invest. Same applies here. No point suggesting for the sake of it, and as a result if we don’t identify value, nor have enough confidence in a given race, then we will simply wait and see/watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE: SHOOTING TO WIN @ $5.50+

* BEST LONGSHOT: NOTHING LIKE LUKA @ $51+

Average odds of $41.33+ per suggested runner (only 3 suggestions made).

 

#HAPPYPUNTING