28 February 2015 (Warwick Farm)

Racing at WARWICK FARM with penetrometer: 5.11, meaning we're on a SOFT (5).

RAIL: TRUE ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Been a while since we raced at Warwick Farm and rail is in the TRUE position. Expect most races to be tempo dependent, with ideal ground potentially 3-4 off the fence in the straight. Ideal spot probably midfield, close enough to peel around the on pacers in the straight, without being caught too wide. As usual, be sure to monitor early races, especially given it’s been a while since the last Saturday meeting).

 

Race 1: Not overly keen on the race, but do think ARTIBAI represents decent enough value for a play here. $6.00+ (SPORTSBET) and looks a nice each way start to the day.

SUGGEST: ARTIBAI (EACH WAY) @ $6.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: On face value, have WOLF CRY on top @ $4.00+, however prefer to wait and see them in the yard and monitor money trails before deciding close to jump time.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Similar to Race 2, might just hold off and see them in the yard/monitor support, before committing here. On face value the value looks to be with LADY JIVAGO @ $11+ who got us the chocolates at double figure odds last time, and CIRCULAR who has surprisingly come up $11+ given the O’Shea/McDonald combination.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 4: No secret that we are a massive fan of FIRST SEAL and she will be terribly hard to beat here, however just can’t get overly excited at the current quote of $1.80. Be sure to include in multies/savers/etc but instead prefer WINX who ran much better that it may seem on paper first up. Think the safer bet is an each way play on her @ $8.50 (SPORTSBET), $2.30 place (BETEASY). When we compare $2.30 place for **WINX** v $1.80 win for FIRST SEAL, we just think this is the safer bet. FIRST SEAL had WINX’s measure last prep and comfortably, but no surprise if WINX has close the gap between the two over the break and happy to take $8.50+ to find out and is our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney. Should be a cracking race.

SUGGEST: **WINX** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, FIRST SEAL (MULTIES) @ $1.80+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)

 

Race 5: RED EXCITEMENT the one to beat and drawn to get the safer/right run, however $3.80+ short enough in our opinion. Include in your savers/multies. Instead, think better value lies with two who are drawn awkwardly, however with an ounce of luck both should be right in the finish. The two in question are TERRITORY and THUMP who we backed at odds first up last time and no reason to be jumping off today. Both currently $8.50+ (SPORTSBET, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU) representing good each way value. Big watch IT’S SOMEWHAT who has been heavily backed for first run in Australia. Could be another for your savers/multies.

SUGGEST: TERRITORY & THUMP (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, RED EXCITEMENT, IT’S SOMEWHAT (SAVERS/MULTIES) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 6: Another race that the top pick is short enough, so we suggest play at something else at better odds, but then savers/multies with the shorter priced favourite. This time, it’s CONTRIBUTOR @ $2.90+ (SPORTSBET) who was enormous last time, unfortunately flying past our best value bet of the day NINTH LEGION last time out. Now to the value and that’s in the form of *HE’S YOUR MAN*, drawn awkwardly but at the very generous $15+ (SPORTSBET) more than happy to take the punt that our man Blake Shinn can work his magic from the outside gate. At $15+ our biggest price in Sydney, hence will nominate as our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney. The other is NINTH LEGION @ $11+ (SPORTSBET) who was very good last time 2nd to CONTRIBUTOR, but also needs some luck from gate 12.

SUGGEST: *HE’S YOUR MAN* (EACH WAY) @ $15+, NINTH LEGION (EACH WAY) @ $11+, CONTRIBUTOR (SAVERS/MULTIES) @ $2.90+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Great race, but not easy. Again, a few we like have drawn wide so will need luck. As a result, at this stage we might hold off and decide closer to jump time as to whether we play and if so, who. Currently, have the likes of MAHARA, IT’S SABEEL and COSMIC ENDEAVOUR as the best value with the first two drawn awkwardly.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 8: LE CORDON BLEU looks very hard to beat in the lucky last and $2.80+ (most operators) decent enough value in our opinion to make a WIN only play. #nosejob

SUGGEST: LE CORDON BLEU (WIN) @ $2.80+ (CONFIDENCE 65%)

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE: WINX @ $8.50+

* BEST LONGSHOT: HE’S YOUR MAN @ $15+

Average odds of $8.61+ per suggested runner

 

#HAPPYPUNTING