Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with penetrometer: 4.68, meaning we're on a GOOD (3).
RAIL: +3M ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Hoping it plays fair, simply based on tempo in each race.)
NOTE: Going through the different operators today, looks as though SPORTSBET are willing to offer some great prices as summarised below so could be worth looking in their direction if (hit up link above) if offering better values for runners you are keen on.
Race 1: MARPLE MISS is low flying and with any luck in running from barrier 6 should be extremely hard to beat. $2.60+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM) worth a WIN only investment to get the day started in Sydney.
SUGGEST: MARPLE MISS (WIN/MULTIES) @ $2.60+ (CONFIDENCE 75%)
Race 2: CENTRE PIVOT most definitely the one to beat, however always some risk first time at the trip especially given the short $1.80+ quote. As a result, might be worth throwing in multies, etc however prefer taking the safer option with a smaller dabble each way on **BLACK JAG** who we believe represents excellent each way value here at $12+ (CENTREBET, SPORTINGBET, TOM WATERHOUSE). Best VALUE BET of the day in Sydney.
SUGGEST: **BLACK JAG** (EACH WAY) @ $12.00+, CENTRE PIVOT (MULTIES) (CONFIDENCE 50%)
Race 3: We had PAJARO on top, but has been hammered in betting the past 24 hours and as a result don’t think $2.40+ represents good enough value anymore, however could be worth throwing into your multies. Several with legitimate claims here, not easy, however we’re going to give *FROZEN ROPE* a chance first up at any old odds. Has had issues, but at the $67/$13+ (SPORTSBET) price plenty of reasons to take the punt. BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney.
SUGGEST: *FROZEN ROPE* (EACH WAY) @ $67+, PAJARO (MULTIES) (CONFIDENCE 70%)
Race 4: Tough race with the 2YOs and don’t see any value worth investing in at this stage.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 5: Super race, with plenty of class and up and coming potential stars on show. Dungeon followers will know we are a big KERMEDEC fan, but not today at the unsuitable 1200m first up. Has bigger fish to fry heading towards the Guineas. SCISSOR KICK and DELECTATION hardest to beat, however best value here lies with DIAMOIND VALORES at $13+ (SPORTSBET) representing good each way value in an extremely tough yet mouth-watering affair.
SUGGEST: DIAMOND VALORES @ $13.00+ (CONFIDENCE 20%)
Race 6: Gee, CATKINS gets in extremely well at the weight suited by the set weights and penalties here. Trialled well enough, but not going to throw ourselves at the $1.85+ despite here being the clear top pick here. Another one for your multies. Instead, think best value lies with LILLIBURLERO at the very juicy $17+ (SPORTSBET) price tag. Each way.
SUGGEST: LILLIBURLERO (EACH WAY) @ $17.00+, CATKINS (MULTIES) (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Many will know we’re a fan of WOODBINE and concede is right in this, however hasn’t been missed and ends up under the odds @ $2.70+, hence another option for multies, etc. Big watch TALES OF GRIMM who we will simply watch and learn from, and instead we’re going to dabble at the top weight here in CASUAL CHOICE. $8.50+ (SPORTSBET) represents great each way value for a horse who is rarely far away, despite not necessarily winning as much as many would like. Let’s hope that changes today.
SUGGEST: CASUAL CHOICE (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, WOODBINE (MULTIES) (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Rate both BURBERO and MIGHTY LUCKY highly here, however both are going to need a lot of luck from wide gates. As a result, inclined to risk at current prices but might change mind if they blow out later. Both are musts for quaddies/multiples. As a result, DIAMETRIC @ $3.00+ (SPORTSBET) simply picks itself with the perfect gate (4) and should be extremely hard to beat.
SUGGEST: DIAMETRIC (WIN) @ $3.00+ (CONFIDENCE 65%)
** BEST VALUE: BLACK JAG @ $12+
* BEST LONGSHOT: FROZEN ROPE @ $67+
Value as usual, meaning lower risk (outlay), higher reward (potential return) betting with average odds of $17.59 per suggested runner.