Racing at SANDOWN HILLSIDE with penetrometer: 5.41, meaning we're on a GOOD (4).
RAIL: +5M ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Been favouring those off the pace of late, but rail out +5M and hot temperature should level things out somewhat. As always tempo key and would expect no major disadvantage off the fence.)
Race 1: JACQUINOT BAY won for Dungeon followers two starts back at close to 20/1 after being the Best Value runner that day and although we won’t be getting anything close to those odds, should be extremely hard to beat here.
SUGGEST: JACQUINOT BAY (WIN/MULTIES) @ $2.00+ (CONFIDENCE 75%)
Race 2: TAIYOO is a winner and don’t see a reason why he won’t be winning again. $2.90+ (most operators) decent enough value, should get the right run, and the claim means he gets in very nicely at the weights once again.
SUGGEST: TAIYOO (WIN/MULTIES) @ $2.90+ (CONFIDENCE 75%)
Race 3: Trying to avoid suggesting three favourites in a row, but all have come out as clear top picks and despite their odds, are considered decent enough value to play. On this occasion is it’s ARENA ROCK who looks very hard to beat @ $3.00+ (most operators).
SUGGEST: ARENA ROCK (WIN/MULTIPLES) @ $3.00+ (CONFIDENCE 70%)
Race 4: Tough race with a mix of first starters, lightly raced 2YOs and those first up from a break. In saying that, there is one who has jumped out as over the odds in *BROOKLYN* @ $16+ (SPORTSBET), representing juicy each way value. BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Melbourne.
SUGGEST: *BROOKLYN* (EACH WAY) @ $16+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Tough race for the 2YOs. DEJU BLUE trialled well, while STOKER comes across with solid form, but at this stage looking to steer clear of this one given the amount of guesswork involved.
SUGGEST: NO BET (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 6: Tough race with tempo key here. DECIRCLES could get away with a soft run up front and if so, could be hard to run down. WHISPER DOWNS was super first up and looks set for a big campaign, however we’ll landing on the one we consider to be the class runner here in ESCADO who will need some luck from the rear, but at $7.50+ (most operators) worth the punt each way.
SUGGEST: ESCADO (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Super race, but not easy with many winning chances. However, one of our favourites is well over the odds first up in **STRATUM STAR** who represents super each way value @ $10+ (most operators). Our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Melbourne.
SUGGEST: **STRATUM STAR** (EACH WAY) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Tough race, after what was going to be our top pick TREVINDER at juicy odds was scratched this morning. Looks to be plenty of pace on paper, and as a result focusing attention on one who can swing wide and come from towards the rear. That one is SINGLE DAYS who is back to town third up after a lengthy break. $10+ (most operators) represents good each way value.
SUGGEST: SINGLE DAYS (EACH WAY) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: HIMALAYA DREAM the one they are backing first time in Australia. Monitor betting and simply might be too good. However, too short to back in our opinion without a race to its name in Aus, hence think it’s a tough finish. Looks a race devoid of speed and as a result, looking at STEREOSONIC at $15+ with most operators. Each way.
SUGGEST: STEREOSONIC (EACH WAY) @ $15+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
** BEST VALUE: STRATUM STAR @ $11+
* BEST LONGSHOT: BROOKLYN @ $16+
Average odds of $8.30+ per suggested runner.