14 March 2015 (Rosehill Gardens)

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with penetrometer: 5.32, meaning we're on a SOFT (6).

RAIL: TRUE ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Rail in the TRUE position after being out +6M on Sat, Feb 21 and out +8m on Wed Feb 25. As usual, tempo dependant, however expect no disadvantage off the fence especially as the day goes on given the softer track. Forecast is for a partly cloudy day with a slight chance (20%) of an early morning shower, so possibility of an upgrade later in the day to a SOFT (5). Monitor early races for an indication of any apparent pattern.

 

Race 1: SIDEBALL all the rage, absolutely backed off the map ($9 into $2.80!) and the one to beat but happy to take on at the short odds first time in Australia given any value has most definitely now come and gone. An option for your multies. Instead, on the softer ground, happy to play ZIN ZAN EDDIE @ $5.50+ (most operators), while best value who is also worth a dabble here in DIVERTIRE @ $21+ (BET365). Great each way value.

SUGGEST: ZIN ZAN EDDIE (WIN) @ $5.50+, DIVERTIRE (EACH WAY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: DEEP FIELD the obvious and hard to beat, but no interest in taking $1.40 here, especially with the potential for plenty of pace up front. Hopefully, they take him on and set it up for TARGET IN SIGHT to swoop around them and gobble them up. $6.00+ (BET365) good enough for us.

SUGGEST: TARGET IN SIGHT (EACH WAY) @ $6.00+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Tricky Pago Pago with 6 debut winners, four of which still undefeated having their second starts here. Best value lies with VANBRUGH @ $11+ (BET365) and TARQUIN @ $31+ (BET365). Suggest smaller each way dabbles given the competitive nature of the race given the inexperience of most runners.

SUGGEST: VANBRUGH (EACH WAY) @ $11+, TARQUIN (EACH WAY) @ $31+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: And no easier here with a big bunch of 2YOs. ALWAYS ALLISON the one to beat, but short enough in our opinion, hence prefer to again look for better value elsewhere, but may be another for backup multies. Tried to make a claim for CARRIAGES who we rate, but a bit of pace expected up front and as a result we land (with not a great deal of confidence) on ITALY @ $9.50+ (BET365) and MOWGLI @ $15+ (most operators) after both hit the line well last time behind ALWAYS ALLISON and should get softer runs behind the pace here and swoop late.

SUGGEST: ITALY (EACH WAY) @ $9.50+, MOWGLI (EACH WAY) @ $15+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 5: Big watch COMMISSION first up and wary of MAHICAN, however think CROSS OF GOLD @ $5.50+ (SPORTSBET, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU) is finally into a suitable race to get first win in a while – 9 starts. Form on dead/slow tracks reads poorly but actually think it isn’t so bad, so hopefully that turns many off and we get a better price.

SUGGEST: CROSS OF GOLD (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 6: HARTNELL to be very hard to beat after a simply sensational debut in Australia. $1.85+ (LUXBET) is the right price and worthy of a play on a WIN only basis and/or a leg for your multies. Best value OPINION @ $17+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU) after a huge run fresh and will appreciate the cut in the ground better than most. Wetter the better for him. And just need to have something on *PHRASES* @ $34+ (SPORTSBET) again after saluting for us last week at $35 and will give them something to chase, especially if minimal pressure up front. Given the odds available, we will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: HARTNELL (WIN) @ $1.85+, OPINION (EACH WAY) @ $17+, *PHRASES* (EACH WAY) @ $34+ (CONFIDENCE 55%)

 

Race 7: FIRST SEAL the obvious and an out and out star. Should be very hard to beat @ $1.90+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU), odds good enough for a WIN only play and also a nice multi leg. Value for an upset include ARABIAN GOLD @ $18+ (most operators) after what looked a disappointing run first up and the ultra-consistent DEAR DEMI @ $26+ (SPORTSBET). Both very good value for small win, bigger place plays.

SUGGEST: FIRST SEAL (WIN) @ $1.90+, ARABIAN GOLD (SMALL WIN, MORE PLACE) @ $18+, DEAR DEMI (SMALL WIN, MORE PLACE) @ $26+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)

 

Race 8: Hoping for a moderate tempo up front and if so expect SUPARA to be hard to run down @ $3.75+ (BET365). Suggest a play on a WIN only basis and the wetter the better for her also.

SUGGEST: SUPARA (WIN) @ $3.75+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 9: Tough finish to a tough but competitive day at the office. Very open finale, we’re again hoping for a moderate pace up front, meaning **AOMEN** can give them something to chase again @ $15+ (most operators) after an outstanding first up run when he did so much work and still kept kicking late. Given odds available, we will make **AOMEN** our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney. RED EXCITEMENT is the other we suggest a play on @ $7.00+ (most operators) to finish off the day. Race runs deep with many legitimate chances, hence probably a wide quaddie leg with the earlier three legs looking much easier on face value.

 SUGGEST: **AOMEN** (EACH WAY) @ $15+, RED EXCITEMENT (EACH WAY) @ $7.00+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: AOMEN @ $15+

* BEST LONGSHOT*: PHRASES @ $34+

Average odds of $13.47+ per suggested runner

 

JUICY MULTI (BETEASY):

  • DIVERTIRE
  • TARGET IN SIGHT
  • CROSS OF GOLD
  • HARTNELL
  • SUPARA
  • = ~ 2860/1

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING