21 March 2015 (Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill)

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with penetrometer: 4.55, meaning we're on a GOOD (3).

RAIL: +2M ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Rail out 2m after being in the TRUE position last week. As usual, tempo dependant on what should be a GOOD track despite a 30% chance of a shower and expect no disadvantage closer to the fence. Monitor early races for an indication of any apparent pattern.

NOTE: We’ve noticed in the past couple of weeks, that a common trend is that BET365 are offering better odds than the other operators (Betfair exchange aside) consistently, hence enough for us to be convinced to open an account. Be sure to do the same to ensure you get the best possible return for your investment. Better in your pocket, than theirs. See banner below for latest offers.

Race 1: Minimal pace on paper has us thinking this will be dominated from the front. Expecting MOSSFUN @ $3.60+ (LADBROKES, BET365) to lead from the wide gate and YGRITTE @ $8.50+ (BET365) to take advantage of gate 2 and sit just behind. If this occurs, we’d expect them to pinch a break on the turn and fight this one out. Suggest MOSSFUN the nose at current odds and YGRITTE each way.

SUGGEST: MOSSFUN (WIN) @ $3.60+, YGRITTE (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Expecting one we rate highly in RISING ROMANCE to be all the rage here, as well as support for TELEPATHIC however both represent little value at $1.80 and $5.00 respectively. Instead, suggest a dabble on three at odds with outlays skewed accordingly. ENTERTAINS @ $11+ (most operators) a good each way play, followed by INISHOWEN @ $31+ (BET365) and *JIAYUGUAN* @ $51+ (most operators) who we will make one of a couple of BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: ENTERTAINS (EACH WAY) @ $11.00+, INISHOWEN (EACH WAY) @ $31+, *JIAYUGUAN* (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Hard and even edition of The Sebring with most runners with legitimate claims. Our speed map has them going at a decent clip, so expecting the winner to come from off the pace. Top pick is MUSIC MAGNATE @ $5.50+ (BET365) and we give a longshot chance to *SNAKE CHARMER* @ $51+ (BET365) who we will make our second BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney. Suggest playing around the three in the order given in a very open race.

SUGGEST: MUSIC MAGNATE (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *SNAKE CHARMER* (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: This year’s Ranvet looks extremely tough. CONTRIBUTOR @ $2.50+ (LADBROKES, BET365) has the form on the board and should be hard to beat. Small field, could be a race of tactics with minimal pace on paper once again. As s result, don’t underestimate a gun hoop aboard. Big watch on overseas raiders TOSEN STARDOM and DOMINANT. Be sure to monitor money trails but at this stage think CONTRIBUTOR will continue on his winning ways and suggest a play on a WIN only basis.

SUGGEST: CONTRIBUTOR (WIN) @ $2.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: And now for the next Group 1 this time with the 3 year olds in the Rosehill Guineas. HALLOWED CROWN is the obvious and is simply low flying but we’re going to somewhat reluctantly take him on over the longer trip. Definitely one for savers/multies. Big watches on the kiwi raiders in MONGOLIAN KHAN and VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL, but we think it’s time for SWEYNESSE @ $3.30+ (BETEASY) to finally turn the tables on HALLOWED CROWN after two very good narrow defeats.

SUGGEST: SWEYNESSE (EACH WAY) @ $3.30+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 6: The group 1s continue and now with the Galaxy. Another hard, even race and our speedmap has them going hard up front, tailored for something to come from off the pace and swoop late. Best value in a very even affair lies with KNOYDART @ $11+ (BET365) and FAST’N’ROCKING @ $12+ (most operators) with both representing good each way value.

SUGGEST: KNOYDART (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FAST’N’ROCKING (EACH WAY) @ $12+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: And now for the big one, the premier 2YO race in Australia and the world’s richest race for two year olds. VANCOUVER the deserved favourite here, but it’s going to be terribly tough from barrier 18 with a lot of pace on paper. As a result, we are going to risk (feel free to include in savers/multies as he’s first class) but just think the pressure up front is going to be too much. Or do they go back instead? Actually think that’s the right move and should they make that call, all of a sudden is right back into calculations. Listen out for a change of tactics announcement. The safer bet regardless in our opinion is EXOSPHERE @ $4.20+ (WILLIAM HILL, BET365, TAB SPORTSBET) who similarly hasn’t done anything wrong. Best value elsewhere lies with FIREWORKS @ $41+ and blowout hope to SERENADE @ $151+ (BET365).

SUGGEST: EXOSPHERE (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+, FIREWORKS (E/W) @ $41+, SERENADE (E/W) @ $151+, VANCOUVER (MULTIES) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 8: And now for the 5th and final Group 1 of the day, and this is the one we’re probably looking forward to more than any other. An absolutely cracking field assembled for this year’ edition of the George Ryder. Big watches and be sure to monitor money moves for the two Japanese raiders in WORLD ACE and REAL IMPACT, with WORLD ACE @ $7.00+ worthy of a saver/multi investment purely off his last start 4th beaten 5L to arguably the world’s best horse in Able Friend. But keenest on an each way basis on one of our favourite horses in CRITERION @ $10+ (most operators) who represents good value each way, while SACRED FALLS is the one way over the odds @ $26+ (BET365). Nothing wrong with first up run and is a proven weight for age star. Another for multies/savers is IT’S SOMEWHAT @ $13+. Race runs deep.

SUGGEST: CRITERION (EACH WAY) @ $10.00+, SACRED FALLS (EACH WAY) @ $26+, (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 9: We owe him nothing and despite backing up again, the tough as nails **PHRASES** @ $15+ (BET365) who we successfully tipped two back at $34+, drops in grade after running last week (outclassed) but gets back to his right class here. Moderate tempo on paper, means he just might give a kick on the turn and pinch a break and if that happens, we know he will give us a big sight as he loves fighting hard late to find that finish line. Excellent each way value at $15+ and we will make it our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney.

 SUGGEST: **PHRASES** (EACH WAY) @ $15+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: PHRASES @ $15+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: JIAYUGUAN @ $51+, SNAKE CHARMER @ $51+

Average odds a MASSIVE $25.74+ per suggested runner.

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING