28 March 2015 (BMW day at Rosehill Gardens)

Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with penetrometer: 5.08, meaning we're on a GOOD (4).

RAIL: +4M ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Rail out 4m after being out 2m last week and TRUE prior to that. As usual, tempo dependant on what is an improving track after many were expecting much softer and a day clear of rain forecast in Sydney. Monitor early races for an indication of any apparent pattern, but don’t expect any disadvantage to be off the fence.

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Race 1: Very hard opener to start the day with several lightly races 2 year olds. Wouldn’t mind seeing them in the yard and may have updates at that point, however given current odds, giving MOWGLI another chance @ $12+ (BET365) with the extra distance the key. The more pace on up fron the better, so fingers crossed there’s some pressure up front.

SUGGEST: MOWGLI (EACH WAY) @ $12+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Doesn’t get a great deal easier in the second, however there is some value in this instance especially if they go hard up front and set things up for those closer to the rear. The two we think represent the value are ALL CERISE @ $18+ (BET365) and CROSS OF GOLD who we’ll given another chance to at $21+ (most operators). Both great each way value in an even and tricky affair.

SUGGEST: ALL CERISE (EACH WAY) @ $18+, CROSS OF GOLD (EACH WAY) @ $23+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Another tricky race with almost every runner with some claims. Looks to be very little pace on paper and as a result if they are positive on MALAVIO (who has been running well from the rear of late) we think he can give a big sight and be hard to catch @ $16+ (LUXBET). Not chock full of confidence but decent enough value for an each way play. Try and listen out for any mention of a change of tactics for any runner if they decide to lead and if so, follow the leader!

SUGGEST: MALAVIO (EACH WAY) @ $16+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: CATKINS looks hard to beat but $1.75+ short enough and as a result would leave for your savers and multies. MADAM GANSTER @ $8+ we rate very highly and has been good to Dungeon fans of late, but $7.50 in this field doesn’t excite us enough for a big play. Another to include in savers/multiples and even the odd multi. Instead, think best value lies with AMANPOUR @ $14+ (most operators) and ANY DAY WILL DO @ $34+ (BET365) who we thought would be hard to beat in the previous race, but they have decided to run in this instead. Should leave and hopefully pinch a break on the turn and give a sight at odds.

SUGGEST: AMANPOUR (EACH WAY) @ $14+, ANY DAY WILL DO (EACH WAY) @ $34+, CATKINS, MADAM GANGSTER (SAVERS/MULTIPLES) (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Gee, it’s a tough card. Be wary as you invest. This looks as hard as any and at the moment, but have found some value in a galloper early Dungeon followers will remember. Unfortunately, on Cox Plate day 2 years ago (after previously successfully snagging 13 straight ‘rollover bet’ wins we went with LUCKY LAGO who unfortunately pulled up with throat issues requiring surgery. Today, we jump back in his camp in a much different way as he’s $34+ (BET365) and both a small dabble in a hard race.

SUGGEST: LUCKY LAGO (EACH WAY) @ $34+ (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

Race 6: And now for the first Group 1 of the day with the three year old fillies battling it out at set weights. FIRST SEAL just missed last time but did have excuses and although it doesn’t get your money back, it does give you reason to know it’s the best filly in the race again here. Absolute disgrace that one of our favourites in Blake Shinn has been booted (some owners have no idea) after circumstances beyond his control ensured a tough enough run to just miss. FIRST SEAL hard to beat here at $1.95+ (BET365, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU) with the 2000m the only query, albeit a small one. BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney is who we consider the main danger at excellent each way odds in **FENWAY** @ $21+ (most operators) and wouldn’t it be ironic if Shinn caused a boil over!

SUGGEST: FIRST SEAL (WIN) @ $1.95+, **FENWAY** (EACH WAY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)

 

Race 7: And now for the big one, the Group 1 BMW and a quality field assembled. Huge watch on the Japanese raider TO THE WORLD who has been heavily backed and now into $2.40+ (BET365). We concede he will be very hard to beat (was close to one of the world’s best GENTILDONNA last start) but now rock bottom odds so we’ll leave for savers/multies. HARTNELL has done nothing wrong and should be right there but again $3.60+ (TAB SPORTSBET) not quite getting us excited enough. Instead, we think it might be time for LUCIA VALENTINA who we have not been keen on for a long time, but think $11+ (LUXBET) is now value and any sting out of the track will only suit. Represents great each way value @ $11+.

SUGGEST: LUCIA VALENTINA (EACH WAY) @ $11+, TO THE WORLD, HARTNELL (SAVERS/MULTIES) (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 8: Another Group 2 and another tough race to decipher. We’d be more than happy for DIAMOND VALORES to win/hit the line very hard as we have him in one of our long term multies shared with Dungeon followers to win the Derby at odds. However, today we like OMEROS who was simply brilliant last time at the provincials. Confident he will step up to city class fine and will eat 2000m and be hitting the line hard. Only query is whether he wants more so could be worth a dabble for the Derby prior and today on an each way basis @ $7+ (BET365, LUXBET, WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET, TOM WATERHOUSE).  Has had strong support this week and top pick here. Best value elsewhere is GOULDIAN @ $21+ (most operators). We were keen in the Spring before went amiss and missed a vital lead-up to the Derby. Seems to be over issues and now time to step up to the plate. Finally, a blowout chance to *BLADEMEISTER* at any old odds $81+ (CROWNBET) who we will make out BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: OMEROS (EACH WAY) @ $7.00+, GOULDIAN (EACH WAY) @ $21+, *BLADEMEISTER* (EACH WAY) @ $81+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 9: Good quality finish to a very competitive card. Keen on PORNICHET here who we’ve taken on most occasions but today we’re on @ $4.40+ (WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET, TOM WATERHOUSE). Top pick just ahead of FORETELLER @ $6.00+ (BET365). Suggest backing both with bet outlay skewed slightly towards PORNICHET.

SUGGEST: PORNICHET (WIN/EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.40+, FORETELLER (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $6.00+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: FENWAY @ $21+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: BLADEMEISTER @ $81+

Average odds a MASSIVE $20.29+ per suggested runner.

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING