Racing at FLEMINGTON with penetrometer: 4.8, meaning we're on a GOOD (3).
RAIL: +TRUE ENTIRE CIRCUIT (was in the TRUE position two weeks back (Feb 21) and remains in the same position in readiness for Super Saturday next weekend. Tempo dependent, but when even expect no disadvantage to be off the fence, especially as the day goes on.)
Race 1: Tricky start with the 2YOs down the straight, but best value with CLAUDIA JEAN @ $7+ (LUXBET) who has enough experience to be worthy of a dabble EACH WAY here.
SUGGEST: CLAUDIA JEAN (EACH WAY) @ $7.00+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 2: Keen on AFLEET ESPRIT @ $3.80+ (LUXBET) to hopefully bring up a winning DOUBLE to open the Flemington card for Hayes & Dabernig. Wary of MISSY LONGSTOCKING who looks the obvious main danger. No third dividend with only 6 runners.
SUGGEST: AFLEET ESPRIT (WIN) @ $3.80+ (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 3: TAN TAT DIAMOND is out and was to be our top pick here at juicy odds. Stablemate HI WORLD @ $4.00+ (LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LUXBET, TAB SPORTSBET) now looks the one to beat first up today. Suggest a WIN only play here.
SUGGEST: HI WORLD (WIN) @ $4.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Keen On ***AKAVOROUN*** @ $2.10+ (BET365) who looks the BEST BET of the day in Melbourne. #nosejob. Saver on AERONAUTICAL @ $9.50+ (SPORTSBET, LUXBET) representing good value.
SUGGEST: ***AKAVOROUN*** (WIN) @ $2.10+, AERONAUTICAL (WIN/SAVER) @ $9.50+ (CONFIDENCE 75%)
Race 5: Very hard race, but have found one who looks over the odds and capable of sharp improvement over the longer distance today. Happens to be another Hayes/Dabernig runners, hence let’s hope they’re in for a big day (tipped 3 in the first 5 here) and on this occasion it’s RAWNAQ @ $16+ (BETEASY, SPORTSBET, LUXBET). Each way in a very even race.
SUGGEST: RAWNAQ (EACH WAY) @ $16+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: Good race, but a lack of pace on paper has us with MADAM GANGSTER @ $4.40+ (WILLIAM HILL) as the top pick here. Several quality runners will be charging late, but hopefully we have pinched a race winning lead as they straighten for home. Most wary of an improved run by GIRL GUIDE (Hayes again), so could be worth a saver WIN play.
SUGGEST: MADAM GANSTER (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 7: Second fiddle to the Guineas equivalent north of the border but a much more open battle here. KERMEDEC @ $3.60+ (BET365) the obvious and the one to beat. A must for quaddies/multiples/savers. Those at bigger odds/value are FONTEIN RUBY @ $15+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) and PETROLOGY @ $13+ (LUXBET) despite a tricky gate in 1 (interesting where Hall decides to settle). Given the odds, we’ll make the two our BEST VALUE bets of the day in Melbourne. Blowout hope to BEST LONGSHOT of the day in Melbourne in *CHIVALRY* @ $26+ (BET365), however as usual needs pace on and luck.
SUGGEST: FONTEIN RUBY (EACH WAY) @ $15+, PETROLOGY (EACH WAY) @ $13+, *CHIVALRY* (EACH WAY/SAVER) @ $26+, KERMEDEC (SAVERS/MULTIES) @ $3.60+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Good, even sprint. CHLOE IN PARIS has come out on top and should be hard to beat if she can simply repeat her last start win 2 weeks back here over the same 1000m distance. Best value then lies with **GENERAL TRUCE** @ $19+ (LUXBET, TAB SPORTSBET) and **DANGER CLOSE** @ $21+ (most operators) who we’ll nominate as our BEST LONGSHOTS of the day in Melbourne. Both represent excellent each way value. Deep race.
SUGGEST: CHLOE IN PARIS (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, **GENERAL TRUCE**, **DANGER CLOSE** (EACH WAY) @ $19+/$21+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: And to end what looks a tricky card, we have HARVEY’S TRUE HEART on top and looks hard to toss @ $4.60+ (most operators) on an each way basis.
SUGGEST: HARVEY’S TRUE HEART (EACH WAY) @ $4.60+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
*** BEST BET ***: AKAVOROUN @ $2.10+
** BEST VALUE **: GENERAL TRUCE, DANGER CLOSE @ $19+/$21+
* BEST LONGSHOT *: CHIVALRY @ $26+
Average odds of $13.30+ per suggested runner
R7: 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 15, 16
R8: 2, 7, 8, 11, 12
R9: 7, 11, 12