7 March 2015 (Randwick Guineas Day)

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with penetrometer: 5.11, meaning we're on a GOOD (4). Bit of rain this morning, and given humidity and cloud cover just have a feeling it might be a little softer than the current reading suggests. Keep this in mind, especially early on.

RAIL: +3M ENTIRE CIRCUIT (Rail out 3M after being in the TRUE position 3 weeks back (Feb 14) when it was a major disadvantage closer to the rail. As usual, tempo dependant, however expect no disadvantage off the fence again as the day goes on, be sure to monitor early races for a guide.)

 

Race 1: Tough opener, especially now that there is a query on OTTOMAN at the 1200m after a disappointing finish last time. Watch and learn unless something jumps out in the yard.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Very tough start in the first two races at Randwick, and with a five horse field of 2YOs at this stage we are unable to identify any value, so looks another watch and learn unless something jumps out in the yard.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Race of tactics here, with minimal speed on paper. Looks a two horse race for us and we have a slight lean to MIHIRI @ $4.80+ (BET365), ahead of BROOK ROAD @ $4.60+ (most operators. Suggest simply backing both to WIN and obviously hope one or the other prevail.

SUGGEST: MIHIRI (WIN) @ $4.80+, BROOK ROAD (WIN) @ $4.60+ (CONFIDENCE 55%)

 

Race 4: MAYGROVE @ $4.00+ (TAB SPORTSBET) comes from across the Tasman for Murray Baker and expect to be ready to fire today. Hard to beat, but do have a look in the yard and monitor money trails. **BLACK JAG** value @ $12+ (most operators) and will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney. Blowout hope at crazy odds PHRASES @ $34+ (most operators). Main danger PAJARO but has been crunched and is now unders in our opinion at close to favourite. Happy to risk at the price.

SUGGEST: MAYGROVE (WIN) @ $4.00+, **BLACK JAG** (EACH WAY) @ $12+, PHRASES (EACH WAY) @ $34+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: Tricky race, kept trying to steer away from the favourite TELEPATHIC @ $3.20+ (most operators), but simply looks too well placed again and will be hard to beat. Blowout hope first up to *SABOR A TRIUNFO* @ $26+ (BET365), if they go hard up front can swoop hard late fresh and this is our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: TELEPATHIC (WIN) @ $3.20+, *SABOR A TRIUNFO* (EACH WAY) @ $26+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 6: Super race between three legitimate 3YO superstars. Unfortunately, a small field and the “interesting” scheduling clash with the Melbourne version of the Guineas means it’s not necessarily the best betting proposition. HALLOWED CROWN, SHOOTING TO WIN and SWEYNESSE to fight it out. We literally have the three equal at the top and as a result, purely from a ‘value’ perspective the logical lean then must go to SWEYNESSE who @ $3.90+ (SPORTSBET) is ~ $1 better value than the other two. Could do worse than waiting to see them in the yard for any noticeable improvement on looks second up.

SUGGEST: SWEYNESSE @ $3.90+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 7: Interesting race, with the mares with fitness on their side, while some of the big boys heading here first up, so a query on how wound up they are. As a result, this is one race, we prefer to definitely wait and see them in the yard before deciding on what way to play, if at all.  

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 8: Hard race which many legitimate winning chances. We’re leaning towards little MIRACLES OF LIFE first up after a super trial and think $7.50+ (SPORTSBET) represents good each way value in a tricky affair.

SUGGEST: MIRACLES OF LIFE (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 9: KURO looks hard to beat in the lucky last however is short given some decent opposition @ $2.10+. At this stage might just wait and see what odds are on offer later on and also see in the yard (first up after 126 day break) before jumping into the short odds. Wait and see at this stage, but could be one for multies.

Randwick - Race 9: KURO the one to beat no doubt @ $2.10+ should be winning, best value with ONEMOREZITA @ $15+ and NAYELI the blowout @ $81+. #happypunting*

* posted on Facebook, Twitter and on website (comments) while horses in mounting yard

  

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: BLACK JAG @ $12+

* BEST LONGSHOT *: SABOR A TRIUNFO @ $26+

 

Average odds of $11.11+ per suggested runner.

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING