18 April 2015 (All Aged Stakes Day at Royal Randwick)

Racing at ROYAL RANDWICK with penetrometer 5.61, meaning we're on a SOFT (6) on the back of racing on consecutive heavy tracks for The Championships. Bit of guesswork with the forecast with high chance of rain (70%) in the late afternoon and evening with a chance of thunderstorms. As a result, closely monitor how things pan out, especially if the rain comes before the final races are run and won.

RAIL: +8M 1600m to WINNING POST, +5M REMAINDER (Meaning the rail out an extra +2M across the entire circuit from where it was last Saturday (11/4). Be sure to monitor early races for any apparent advantage however at this stage expect no disadvantage to be closer to the fence.)

NOTE: As mentioned throughout our summary, SPORTSBET have decided to offer much better odds than the other operators for one reason or another today. The majority of our suggestions have best odds with SPORTSBET so may be time to take advantage of current promo offers and sign up via the link below if you are keen on getting the best odds today.

Race 1: PRIVATE SECRETARY all the rage here but no interest in taking $2.10 about it. Instead, like **DUBLIN LASS** to kick things off in the opener @ $14+ (SPORTSBET) representing great each way value. Hoping the trusty Snowden / Bowman combination are too good here. Note SPORTSBET offering much better odds than the other operators at this stage. Given the price, we’ll nominate as one of two BEST VALUE bets of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: **DUBLIN LASS** (EACH WAY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 2: Not a race we’re overly enthused about, but have identified one over the odds in BLADEMEISTER @ $51+ (SPORTSBET), very juicy each way odds. Once again, SPORTSBET are offering much better odds for this suggested runner than the other operators.

SUGGEST: BLADEMEISTER (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 3: Sticking with a couple here we’ve been on in PITTSBURGH FLYER and PRESS REPORT, both at juicy quotes, $13+ and $12+ respectively. And a hat trick for SPORTSBET offering better odds than the rest. We were keen on PITTSBURGH FLYER first up at similar odds when we got the chocolates down the Flemington straight, whereas the Magic Man Moreira gave PITTSBURGH FLYER no chance last time deciding to stick to the quick sand closer to the fence. Total forget and not one of Moreira’s better rides, that’s for sure. While PRESS REPORT down in class from the TJ Smith and think she’ll appreciate the extra distance.

SUGGEST: PITTSBURGH FLYER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, PRESS REPORT (EACH WAY) @ $12+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Even Champagne with many legitimate winning chances. We’ve had luck with a couple here in recent times in PASADENA GIRL and TARQUIN but are much shorter odds today and in such an even affair, prefer to keep the outlay down and look for one at bigger odds. Best value lies with MINE TWO @ $17+ (most operators) worthy of each way dabble in a small yet very competitive field. While hardest to beat and now out to a backable price is ODYSSEY MOON @ $6+ (SPORTSBET) who we’ll go with on a WIN only basis unless you can snag close $1.80+ place.

SUGGEST: MINE TWO (EACH WAY) @ $17+, ODYSSEY MOON (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Like GYPSY DIAMOND here on an each way basis down in grade from the Group 1 Queen of the Turf. Really liked how she hit the line late and although a query at the trip, we think she’ll run it out. Happy to take the $8.50+ (most operators) to find out, however just be sure to monitor the track in first four races to ensure there’s no major bias preventing those towards the rear to swopp and make ground late.

SUGGEST: GYPSY DIAMOND (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 6: And now for the feature with a cracking field assembled for the Group 1 All Aged Stakes. CHAUTAUQUA got us the chocolates last time and will be hard to beat again, but not so keen this time at the shorter price, especially given barrier 1. Will need luck from the inside gate, an option for multies/savers, but happy to look at a few at better odds instead. Think SHOOTING TO WIN is ready to win and represents great each way value @ $11+ (SPORTSBET). Next best LUCKY HUSSLER @ $10+ (SPORTSBET) who needs Boss to be at his best from 13 but a big chance if he can find cover. Blowout hope and BEST LONGSHOT of the day is *WEARY* @ $71+ (SPORTSBET) which we believe is crazy odds for a galloper who was only 1.8L behind Contributor over this same distance only 3 starts back. Can win at silly odds. Again SPORTSBET for one reason or another offering better odds than the rest for all 3 suggestions. We haven’t used the SPORTSBET account for a while, but might be time to top it up.

SUGGEST: SHOOTING TO WIN (EACH WAY) @ $11+, FLYING HUSSLER (EACH WAY) @ $10+, *WEARY* (EACH WAY) @ $71+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: And now for the Hall Mark Stakes and a cracking race. Not easy at all, but plenty of value on offer. OUR BOY MALACHI is the deserved favourite here and should be hard to beat, is one for your multies/savers but we’re happy to take the punt on a few others at juicy odds. Of those, keenest on **ROCK STURDY** at the extremely generous price of $21+ (SPORTSBET). At those odds will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then, we entertain two at any old odds in DECISION TIME @ $101+ (SPORTSBET) an old favourite of ours, who was disappointing first up after a long break but a must dabble on the back of impressive trial which saw him go past second fave here in CRAFTINESS. Yes, CRAFTINESS was hard held, but one is $6.50 and the other $101 so worth the gamble off the trial alone. The other is WOULDN’T IT BE NICE @ $151+ (SPORTSBET). First up after three trials, has been competitive in this class of race before and can handle a softer track. The query is definitely 1200m first up without race fitness on his side, but at $151+ worth the gamble once again that he has worked hard enough away from the race track to be ready for a crack at them today. Super race, which runs very deep. Sound like a broken record but SPORTSBET again the best for all 3 suggestions.

SUGGEST: **ROCK STURDY** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, DECISION TIME (EACH WAY) @ $101+, WOULDN’T IT BE NICE (EACH WAY) @ $151+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 8: Been a big prep where he’s been up to as far as 2000m and now back down to 1400m but going to run with the ultra-consistent BURBERO here @ $5.50+. Has grown a leg this prep and has plenty of opposition here, but with a bit of pace up front should hopefully be able to settle a little further back behind them despite the wide gate and hopefully reel them in. Given the forecast storms, happy with it on top as the wetter could be better given the shorter trip today. Also give *RUGGED CROSS* a chance at big odds second up @ $67+ (SPORTSBET). Will make another BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: BURBERO (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, *RUGGED CROSS* (EACH WAY) @ $67+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: DUBLIN LASS @ $14+, ROCK STURDY @ $20+

*BEST LONGSHOTS*: WEARY @ $71+, RUGGED CROSS @ $67+

 

Average odds of $37.26+ per suggested runner.

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING