2 May 2015 (Racing at Caulfield)

Racing at CAULFIELD with penetrometer 5.06, meaning we're on a GOOD (3).

RAIL: +14M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). As usual, be sure to monitor early races closely in order to identify any potential advantage, especially with the rail out a significant 14m the entire circuit.

Summary for what looks a hard card at Cashfield today. Be wary with outlays as we don't step into the day with a great deal of confidence. #happypunting

 

Race 1: Tricky opener to a tricky card. Best value with JUDICIAL ROCK @ $51+ (SPORTSBET) and ELLE EXCITE @ $11+ (SPORTSBET) both on each way basis’. Will make the former a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day given the huge odds available.

SUGGEST: JUDICIAL ROCK (EACH WAY) @ $51+, ELLE EXCITE (EACH WAY) @ $11+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 2: STAR FASHION and SECOND BULLET rightful favourites here and the clear cut two to beat. Best value with EPIC SAGA who gets a weight swing on STAR FASHION to be a chance to turn the tables here and worthy of an each way play as a result at $8.50+ (SPORTSBET).

SUGGEST: EPIC SAGA (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 3: Very hard race on paper, however do concede VIOLENT SNOW looks overs at the generous $11+ (BET365) price-tag. Worth a small each way play.

SUGGEST: VIOLENT SNOW (EACH WAY) @ $11+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: Another tough even affair, but we do lean towards ACADEMY JACK who has already been well backed but still represents good each way value at $10.00+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). ACES AND ANGELS was going to be our best longshot today, but unfortunately scratched.

SUGGEST: ACADEMY JACK (EACH WAY) @ $10.00 (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: A bit of guesswork as you would expect with a 2 year old listed race this time of year, however do like the look of COOL SNITZEL who has come up decent each way value at $8.00+ (SPORTSBET). Be sure to look for market support closer to jump time, especial;;y for those on debut/first time in town.

SUGGEST: COOL SNITZEL (EACH WAY) @ $8.00+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: Another tough race on what looks a tricky day on paper. NORDIC EMPIRE and DURENDAL the two hardest to beat but haven’t been missed in betting and as a result currently not enough value for us to get too excited about. Instead, we’re going to have a play around **CORNROW** who we concede doesn’t win out of turn, but down in class here and hoping will be ready to fire after a freshen up. $31.00+ (SPORTSBET) represents excellent each way value and as a result will make out BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **CORNROW** (EACH WAY) @ $31.00+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 7: Another race, another very even affair. Give SECOND OPTION a chance here at a very juicy $15+ (most operators) price, despite beating WAR POINT worse off at the weights without a claim. As a result, despite not representing good enough value at the moment we concede WAR POINT should be hard to beat and could be one for your savers/multies. Elsewhere, also think ALL I SURVEY is a great chance here @ $13+ (BET365) despite the drop in distance. Our chances are enhanced if we get a strongly run 2000m here for both selections. Finally, very rare to see a Weir runner in this class at $61+ but think you can do worse than something each way on *KEEP THE KLASS* @ $61+ (SPORTSBET) who should improve on the good track. Don’t think it likes it wet, hence willing to dismiss last run in Adelaide. Given the odds, will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Melbourne.

SUGGEST: SECOND OPTION (EACH WAY) @ $15+, ALL I SURVEY (EACH WAY) @ $13+, *KEEP THE KLASS* (EACH WAY) @ $61+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 8: And it gets no easier here in the 8th in what is probably the best race on paper with many legitimate chances. RED BOMBER the one to beat after upsetting Trust In A Gust last time to the heartbreak of some close to the dungeon who looked to have the early quaddie in the bag. In saying that, top pick here with a featherweight after the claim and need to play on a WIN only basis @ $3.50+ (BET365). Best value with PYTHAGOREAN first up for Waller @ $14+ (most operators).

SUGGEST: RED BOMBER (WIN) @ $3.50+, PYTHAGOREAN (EACH WAY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 9: PYROLLIC, now with Moody does looks hard to beat but has been heavily backed so will be a question on what price you can snap up. At $3.10+ (SPORTSBET) worthy of a WIN only play. However, on face value prefer the value on offer for **INISHOWEN** @ $11+ (SPORTSBET) so will have the primary play here each way, and then the secondary on PYROLLIC to WIN. Make another BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **INISHOWEN** (EACH WAY) @ $11+, PYROLLIC (WIN) @ $3.10+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: INISHOWEN @ $11+, CORNROW @ $31+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: KEEP THE KLASS @ $61+

 

Average odds of $17.94+ per suggested runner.

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING