23 May 2015 (Doomben 10000 Day Preview)

Racing at DOOMBEN with penetrometer 5.1, meaning we're on a SOFT (5), hence a much improved track than many may have been expecting.

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Track can tend to favour those on pace given the tight turning nature of the track. Haven’t found a great deal of pace in most races across the board so hoping for the most part tempo and track to better suit those closer to/on the pace. As usual, be sure to monitor early races closely in order to identify any potential advantage/disadvantage.

 

Race 1: Keen on WISH COME TRUE in the opener on Doomben 10,000 day. Looks to have the race at its mercy despite the 59kg impost. Now out to a better than expected $5.00+ price. Would have been close to a good thing had the track been softer, but still soft enough to not be a major concern. Main danger FAUST at $6+ which is the one we would play in savers/multiples/etc.

SUGGEST: WISH COME TRUE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $5.00+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 2: Good even race, with tactics and pace key as looks the case with many races on the card. Best values lies with **SANCERRE** @ $34+ and **ANY DAY WILL DO** @ $41+ with Crown Bet. Hoping for minimal pace up front with the two of these to hopefully have their own way in front with the more fancied runners settling midfield or worse. Given the odds available we will make the duo our joint BEST VALUE bets of the day.

SUGGEST: **SANCERRE** (EACH WAY) @ $34+, **ANY DAY WILL DO** (EACH WAY) @ $41+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Very hard race which looks to have a lot of pace on paper. The one that jumps out as the best value is the old boy in EXCELLANTES who represents good each way value @ $26+.

SUGGEST: EXCELLANTES (EACH WAY) @ $26+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: Our speed map has minimal pressure up front here and as a result we think STRAWBERRY BOY is set to dictate terms and if they allow him to roll out at his own leisure then should be very hard to run down late. Good each way value at $7+.

SUGGEST: STRAWBERRY BOY (EACH WAY) @ $7.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 5: Expect SADLER’S LAKE to get across easily enough here for Blake Shinn and get what looks to be another soft lead and as a result should prove hard to run down @ $4.00+. At current odds suggest a WIN only play, unless you can get close to each way odds ($1.80+ place). Wary and a watch on HARRY first time in Australia for Murray Baker at the juicy $21+. Given the juicy price suggest a smaller play just in case. Be sure to monitor betting and keep a close eye in the yard.

SUGGEST: SADLER’S LAKE (WIN/EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.00+, HARRY (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 6: Another race with only a moderate tempo on paper, however if this occurs for several races, there is always the risk of jockeys over compensating later on which in turn starts working into the backmarkers hands. Hence tactics key and gun jockeys worth their ‘light’ weight in gold in a very even and tricky affair. WICKED INTENT should be better for impressive first up run and if so, should be hard to catch here @ $6.50+. BEST LONGSHOT of the day who we give a chance at big odds to is *ZARA BAY* at $51+.

SUGGEST: WICKED INTENT (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, *ZARA BAY* (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: On face value we were very keen on BOHEMIAN LILY, however upon closer inspection this doesn’t look so straight forward, especially with the introduction of not one, but two kiwi invaders in PLATINUM WITNESS and EXQUISITE JEWEL. Regardless best value lies with COL ‘N’ LIL @ $21+. Small play there and will leave larger plays until later or simply leave based on information that comes to hand closer to jump time such as seeing them in the yard and money trails.

SUGGEST: COL ‘N’ LIL (EACH WAY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 20%)

 

Race 8: And now for the feature, the Group 1 Doomben 10,000. Must agree with the critics that it does look to be a much weaker Doomben 10,000 than you would normally expect, however we can only work with what arrives race day and a huge opportunity for many to snag a Group 1 with stocks down on what you would normally expect. A special shout out to some dungeon fans who have a slice of BRING ME THE MAID who is in this up to her eyeballs, despite the improving track. Despite what many ‘experts’ are saying not sure this will be raced at the usual hot tempo you expect for a Group 1 1350m dash, so still looking at those closer to the pace (as we have done for most suggestions today, so let’s hope they are not swopping from the rear or we’re in trouble and will need to re-assess). In a tough race as you’d expect, we’ve come out with ROCK STURDY on top @ $16+. Great each way price, should be in the box seat from barrier 4 and if they don’t go hard up front can hopefully pinch a race winning break on the turn with many chances further behind. Would have preferred Bowman stay aboard but hopefully there’s a reason besides Bowman simply preferring GENERALIFE and on that alone puts him in as a main danger. Interestingly, McDonald has jumped off GENERALIFE to ride KNOYDART who has done little wrong, but simply banking on him getting too far back and the winner to come from the front half. Similar BOBAN who we’re scared stiff of, is the class runner by a mile “if” back to best (which we haven’t seen for a while) and is one for savers/multies. The other we actually want to play around is the kiwi invader SACRED STAR who hopefully is ready to fire first up in Aus at the juicy $14+ price.

SUGGEST: ROCK STURDY (EACH WAY) @ $16+, SACRED STAR (EACH WAY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 9: Very hard finish to the day, so hopefully you’re not chasing going into the last and if so, don’t do anything silly as this is very much a wide open affair. Tactics key with some pace up front, including a few of the fancied runners so will be interesting if others take them on (notably favourite NAJOOM and TRAVESTON GIRL). If left alone they will be fighting out the finish, but just expecting a bit of extra pressure up front to not make it so easy for the expected leaders. Expecting MISS COVER GIRL to be ridden a touch quieter than last time and hopefully get a trail behind the leaders from the good gate and come around them late. $13+ seems a great each way price and at this stage that’s our play, however will take a closer look later on the back of how the track is playing and additional information coming to hand between now and then.

SUGGEST: MISS COVER GIRL (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: SANCERRE @ $34+, ANY DAY WILL DO @ $41+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: ZARA BAY @ $51+

 

Average odds of $19.96+ per suggested runner.

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING