30 May 2015 (Racing Preview for Moonee Valley)

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.89, meaning we're on a SOFT (5).

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Haven’t raced here in a while, so simply hoping for a level playing field which you should expect. As usual, be sure to monitor early races closely in order to identify any potential advantage/disadvantage, tempo as always the key.

 

Race 1: Hard opener with the 2 year olds but best value lies with ALKAASHEF @ $13+ after a decent enough debut despite slow time when backed with confidence. Bit of guesswork, so nothing silly, but decent enough odds for a play.

SUGGEST: ALKAASHEF (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 2: Very hard race, not sure where to look. Watch and learn and keep your money in your pocket.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Another tricky race. MANHATTAN AVENUE the obvious and should be hard to beat and have to have something on the nose at $3.30+. Best value is DARU SAM who comes straight to town after impressive debut at Cranbourne for Mick Kent. Always respect a debutant who can come from last to first over there and at $16+ worth an each way dabble.

SUGGEST: MANHATTAN AVENUE (WIN) @ $3.30+, DARU SAM (EACH WAY) @ $16+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: CARASHAN GIRL looks the clear top pick here and expecting to be hard to beat, as long as there is no disadvantage to be leading today. As a result, be sure to monitor first few races before investing, but presuming level playing field, should be hard to catch.

SUGGEST: CARASHAN GIRL (EACH WAY) @ $4.00+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 5: PILLY’S WISH the obvious and the clear cut one to beat, however is first up after a decent break and is hardly big odds (into $2.80+ after many scratchings). At this stage, inclined to just watch and learn, however could be persuaded closer to race time after we see her in the yard and after monitor money trails closer to race time.   

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 6: Had METAPHORICAL drawn a gate, would be extremely keen and close to a good thing. However, just wary of where Nolen will get to from the wide gate. At $3.20+ just not juicy enough odds to take the punt at this stage, however similar to Pilly’s Wish above, prefer to probably hold fire for now, watch and learn how track is playing in earlier races before making a decision as to whether to back METAPHORICAL here. If she finds a spot with cover midfield or better, should be terribly hard to beat. However, the big question is will that happen, or will she be posted wide or forced to lead or go back from the wide gate?

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 7: Hard race where there looks to be plenty of pace up front which should set it up for those closer to the rear. Best value is **CORONATION SHALLAN** who gets a good weight swing here after good first up run and should get tempo to suit. $10+ a great each way price. Main dangers are JESSY BELLE and ORION, however both under the odds in my opinion but are musts for multiples and/or savers.

SUGGEST: **CORONATION SHALLAN** (EACH WAY) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 8: Hard race, which will become easier/clearer once we know how track is playing. Best value is *BLACK JAG* who gets a weight pull on many of the fancies here and if there is any advantage to those on pace, confidence increases. At $19+ worth the punt regardless, however worth waiting a little while to ensure rail isn’t off for any reason.

SUGGEST: *BLACK JAG* (EACH WAY) @ $19+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 9: Tricky card and the last is as hard as any. At this stage, steering clear, but will yell out if anything pops up on the back of what happens prior.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: CORONATION SHALLAN @ $10+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: BLACK JAG @ $19+

 

Average odds of $10.88+ per suggested runner. 

#HAPPYPUNTING