9 May 2015 (Doomben Cup Day Preview)

Racing at DOOMBEN with penetrometer 5.8, meaning we're on a SOFT (5).

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). As usual, be sure to monitor early races closely in order to identify any potential advantage, especially with the rail in the true position on the back of heavy rain followed by better weather the past week.

 

Race 1: We think Blake Shinn is set for a huge day, starting with the opener here with BOHEMIAN LILY @ $5+. BALLET SUITE the obvious main danger, but under the odds so looking to leave for any savers/multies only.

SUGGEST: BOHEMIAN LILY (EACH WAY) @ $5+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 2: Giving SADLER’S LAKE another chance after simply finding a ‘good one’ better last time on the heavy track. $3.50+ decent enough price despite the tricky gate, but we’ll trust Shinn to work his magic and not panic and hopefully open the day with an early double.

SUGGEST: SADLER’S LAKE (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $3.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: TRAVESTON GIRL all the rage and has been heavily backed. Unders now in our opinion and as a result will leave for any savers/multies only. Instead like the Snowden pair here to battle it out after they both won for Dungeon followers in their respective first up runs. Slight lean DUBLIN LASS over I’VE GOT THE LOOKS but suggest backing both @ $6+ pricetags.

SUGGEST: DUBLIN LASS (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $6+, I’VE GOT THE LOOKS (WIN/EACH WAY), SNOWDEN QUINELLA (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 4: Good, even race which isn’t easy.  Tactics/pace in the race to be key. Best value lies with BEWHATYOUWANNABE who represents great each way value at $13+.

SUGGEST: BEWHATYOUWANNABE (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Hard race, not overly confident or keen, however do have LE CHEF @$4.60+ and SEMPRE LIBERA @ $6+ as top picks here and given the big field and competitive nature of the race, hoping for decent enough odds for both. Probably back them both on a WIN only basis.

SUGGEST: LE CHEF (WIN) @ $4.60+, SEMPRE LIBERA (WIN) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 6: Another very even race on paper so not any easier here. Doesn’t look to be a heap of pace on paper, so will be interesting to see how track is playing and whether leaders are given every chance today or whether you are better off coming off the fence in the straight. Slight lean here ROCK STUDY @ $8+ just ahead of FAST N ROCKING @ $6.50+. Hoping both settle no worse than midfield or else they may have too much ground to make up. Will play both on a WIN only basis. Also give FINAL CRESCENDO a chance to return to form and cause a boil over at $41+.

SUGGEST: ROCK STURDY (WIN) @ $8+, FAST N ROCKING (WIN) @ $6.50+, FINAL CRESCENDO (EACH WAY) @ $41+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: And now for the big one, the Doomben Cup and a really intriguing race with another even field assembled. Doesn’t look to be a stack of pace on paper so again keep an eye on earlier races, especially surrounding how leaders/on pace runners are fairing. PORNICHET picks himself here and looks the one to beat @ $4.50+, and to cover secondary bets will go the nose on a win only basis. FORETELLER we need to include, with the main query the pace on paper and usual pattern to get back. If there is any advantage to those running on we may upgrade to top pick. McDonald aboard so will be interesting if ridden more positively and must have something on at $11+. Giving *ESCADO* a blowout hope again at the crazy $101+ pricetag. As a result, becomes a BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. LEEBAZ the obvious main danger as well as the rest of the Waller brigade, so include in your savers/multies if keen.

SUGGEST: PORNICHET (WIN) @ $4.50+, FORETELLER (EACH WAY) @ $11+, *ESCADO* (EACH WAY ) @ $101+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 8: OUR BOY MALACHI and SRIKANDI look the top picks here, but are short enough at current prices at $2.60 and $4.00 respectively.  Of the two SRIKANDI better value as we don’t think there’s too much between them. Both are musts for savers/multies/quaddies. However, as usual we search for better odds, especially given the competitive nature of the race. As a result, we prefer KNOYDART who is probably on his last chance today but good value @ $21+ FONTELINA who has been racing well against the very best we there is and represents good value @ $26+ and TEMPLE OF BOOM who we know is good enough and had excuses first up.

SUGGEST: KNOYDART (EACH WAY) @ $21+, FONTELINA (EACH WAY) @ $26+, TEMPLE OF BOOM (EACH WAY) @ $26+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 9: No secret we’re a big fan of REKINDLED POWER who we were close with last time as our best value better at odds in 3rd and hard to beat here if our boy Blake Shinn can overcome a tricky gate. At $8+ worth the punt that Shinn works it out. Looking depper, also think you can do worse than dabbles on **DEIHEROS** and PINCH RIVER (in that order) both around the $18+ mark. The former **DEIHEROS** our BEST VALUE best of the day.

SUGGEST: REKINDLED POWER (E/W - PRIMARY) @ $8+, **DEIHEROS** (E/W - SECONDARY) $18+, PINCH RIVER (E/W) @ $18+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: DEIHEROS @ $18+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: ESCADO @ $101+

 

Average odds of $17.55+ per suggested runner.

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING