Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.82, meaning we're on a GOOD (4).
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to headquarters after racing here Wednesday where you needed to be off the pace and coming wide. Expecting no disadvantage to be off the pace, especially as the day goes on, however as usual monitor early races and use speed map/pace in race as your primary guide.
NOTE: Tough day on paper, where we think you’re probably better off playing the multiples instead of unloading on certain runners in every race, just choosing your favourites of the lot for individual each way or win only outlays. As a result, our summary today will be different to usual where we will provide a summary of the best value runners and suggest playing around those in your multiples, whether they be race to race doubles, trebles, multies, quaddies or race multiples with quinellas, trifectas, first fours, etc.
Race 1: EL GRECO the one to beat here and consider $2.30+ (BET365.com.au) here decent value. Top pick, hard to beat ahead of best value runners ALAMONTEEL @ $7+, OLD TRIESTE @ $8+ and FLYING GEEPEE @ $17+.
Race 2: MIHANY the one way over the odds here at $15+ (BET365.com.au) who obviously needs some luck from the wide gate, but odds well and truly worth the punt here. The other two over the odds are MICK’S HUSTLER @ $10+ (BET365.com.au) and RED SPYDER @ $8.50+ (BET365.com.au)
Race 3: NORTHROZA the obvious and concede hard to beat, but in our humble opinion under the odds here @ $2.40+. Instead believe better value lies with A LOTTA LOVE @ $14+ (SPORTSBET.com.au) and OAK PARK GOBLET @ $41+ also with SPORTSBET.com.au.
Race 4: Extremely tough race with every single runner with legitimate claims, obviously at different levels. In saying that, best value here is a standout in COOLDINI who @ $11+ (SPORTSBET.com.au) represents excellent each way value. BLACK JAG also over the odds @ $11+ (SPORTSBET.com.au) however be sure to see how track is playing and confirm that leaders get their chance. Following the opener, still inconclusive as they looked to go slow, however on pacers dominated. Given, we think EVERY runner has claims, be sure to include rank outsiders in your multiple and even contemplate dabbles.
Race 5: Doesn’t win out of turn, but like PAGO ROCK here at the generous $8+. I think we only get this price due to gap between wins, but surely gets his chance today to salute. **PLAY MASTER** excellent value at $11+ and main danger to PAGO ROCK. Running with the “MASTERS” as our BEST VALUE bets of the day, starting with **PLAY MASTER** here. The other two over the odds are KLISHNA @ $12+ and TREVINDER @ $15+. Playing around those four. ANATINA obviously the class runner, but happy to risk today off a poor trial at the short price.
Race 6: Extremely tough race. Either HUSSON EAGLE wins or it’s a blanket over the rest. Concede HUSSON EAGLE can win this, however can’t entertain current price ($3.80+) which we consider to be big unders. Best value with BELLA CAPRI @ $21+ (BET365.com.au) and REIGNING METEOR @ $15+ (BET365.com.au). Value doesn’t end there with each of FORGIVE AND FORGET @ $34+ (SPORTSBET.com.au), ILLUSTRIOUS LAD @ $15+ and PINK PERFECTION @ $19+ and DEZANNAM @ $201+ (SPOERTSBET.com.au) all overs and worthy inclusions in quaddies/multiples.
Race 7: BERSERK doesn’t win out of turn, but this looks to be perfect and $8.50 we consider to be a good price here. Best value elsewhere GOLDEN OLDIES $26+, HADDA COUPLE $21+, ST CATEJAN @ $26+. Must include BLACKJACK BELLA and SEBRING WARRIOR in quaddies/multiples.
Race 8: All revolves around HE OR SHE who looks crazy unders at $4.40+. Might absolutely brain them, has an excellent record in WA but simply can’t have at this price. Happy to take on which opens things up bigtime and hopefully injects huge value into multiples/quaddies. Looking wide for quaddies/multiples and taking on the fave, but do think hardest to beat is SIR ANDREW @ $7+ who we may take in a leaner quaddie/standalone bet, while best value lies with ACADEMY JACK @ $26+ and *TINY’S LEGACY* @ $36+. The later we will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.
Race 9: LONGERON and REFULGENT the hardest to beat here and both at the right price in terms of odds. Best value **HERO MASTER** @ $19+ which is excellent each way value. As mentioned earlier, running with the “MASTERS” as our BEST VALUE bets of the day, ending with **HERO MASTER** here. DARBARDAR the longshot hope at $34+. Include DARRAGH in wider multiples.
** BEST VALUE **: PLAY MASTER @ $11+, HERO MASTER @ $19+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: TINY’S LEGACY @ $36+