Racing at DOOMBEN with the penetrometer reading 4.8, meaning we're on a GOOD (4) track for Group 1 Stradbroke day, Queensland’s grand final of racing.
RAIL: +0.5M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We were here last week with rail out +5M and a level enough playing field. As usual, be sure to monitor early races closely in order to identify any potential advantage/disadvantage, and main guide should be pace in race.
Race 1: Good opener to Queensland racing’s biggest day. Going with the class runners here in EXCELLANTES @ $13+ and THUMP @ $9+ both with our friends at Sportsbet and both good each way value in a competitive opener.
SUGGEST: EXCELLANTES (EACH WAY) @ $13+, TRUMP (EACH WAY) @ $9+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 2: FLIPPANT looks the one to beat here, but as usual with these 2 year old affairs, some guesswork involved, hence tempted but wary of the $1.90+ (BET365) price tag. Suggest a play but confidence based on looks in yard and end price. Could be an option for multies.
SUGGEST: FLIPPANT (WIN) @ $1.90+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)
Race 3: At first glance, STRAWBERRY BOY was the one and with confidence after saluting for us easily last time at nice odds. However, upon closer inspection it doesn’t seem so straight forward and as a result we’re looking elsewhere. Pace the key here and just thinking STRAWBERRY BOY is going to have to work up front with the likes of ANY DAY WILL DO crossing from the wide gate. Scared stiff of FLAMINGO STAR second up in Aus, but simply too short for us @ $3.30+ on the back of one decent run so prefer to watch but no surprise if he prevails. Do like FRESPANYOL, but just have a slight query on carrying the 57kg in a strongly run mile, and as a result we finally land on LUCKY LAGO @ $7+ (BET365) right down in the weights to hopefully either weave a passage late or get off the fence and come around them. Intriguing race as we put our faith back in the runner who ended our first ROLLING BET after pulling up with throat issues. Time to make amends for the dungeon, has taken us a while to jump back on.
SUGGEST: LUCKY LAGO (EACH WAY) @ $7+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 4: As you will all know we are always looking for value and in most cases suggest runners at double figure odds and beyond, but sometimes the obvious is the value despite the shorter odds and in this case it’s ij the form of CATKINS. $2.20+ decent value in our opinion and suggest a go on a WIN only basis. Could be another anchor for multies. Very hard to beat.
SUGGEST: CATKINS (WIN) @ $2.20+ (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 5: Disappointed the emergencies didn’t get a run as one we were very keen on in ULMANN while another was going to be our Best Longshot of the day in RIGHT OR WRONG. As a result, this now becomes very tough with a lack of pace on paper and many trying the mile for the first time. As a result, we’ve landed with the class galloper who will definitely run the trip in MERION and think $14+ (BET365) is great value in this class. MISS COVER GIRL @ $7+ (BET365) looks set to get the run of the race and only query is the 1600m, so have something on her also.
SUGGEST: MERION (EACH WAY) @ $14+, MISS COVER GIRL (EACH WAY) @ $7+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 6: We then start the quaddie with an ultra-competitive Group 1 in the J.J Atkins. Many here with a hope, but as usual we’re all about identifying the best value and we think that lies with LOOK TO THE STARS @ $8+ (BET365) and **PEPPERANO** @ the juicy $26+ price also with www.bet365.com.au. Given the odds, we’ll make the later a BEST VALUE bet of the day in Queensland.
SUGGEST: LOOK TO THE STARS (EACH WAY) @ $8+, **PEPPERANO** (EACH WAY) @ $26+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: And now for the Derby and an excellent edition of the Queensland edition. WERTHER the one to beat after being ultra-impressive defeating his older rivals last week and we think he either wins well or you can throw a blanket of many others here who look set to peak over the longer distance. So, we’d suggest WERTHER on a WIN only basis @ $2.40+ along with several at juicier odds. Best value of the rest include MAGICOOL @ $21+, QUICK STRIKE @ $21+ and CHILLIN WITH DYLAN @ $34+.
SUGGEST: WERTHER (WIN) @ $2.40+, MAGICOOL (EACH WAY) @ $21+, QUICK STRIKE (EACH WAY) @ $21+, CHILLIN WITH DYLAN (EACH WAY) @ $34+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: And now for the big one, the Group 1 Stradbroke. Super race as usual, huge field, plenty of chances and as a result plenty of value if you can find the winner. Best value with **HOT SNITZEL** @ $21+ who has drawn awkwardly, however can go forward and expect Shinn to find a spot and ideally get a small breather before trying to kick away and hold on for dear life. At the odds will nominate as another BEST VALUE bet of the day at Doomben. Next best SACRED STAR who looks set to peak here @ $11+, and then blowout hopes on both *SMOKIN’ JOEY* and *FAST N ROCKING* both at the juicy $41+ price, who we will make our BEST LONGSHOT bets of the day given the earlier scratching mentioned.
SUGGEST: **HOT SNITZEL** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, SACRED STAR (E/W) @ $11+, *SMOKIN’ JOEY* (E/W) @ $41+, *FAST N ROCKING* (E/W) @ $41+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 9: Like EPINGLE in the lucky last with $10+ a super price on an each way basis. Also suggest a WIN only bet on MORIARTY who we consider the main danger and at a better than expected $5.50+ price.
SUGGEST: EPINGLE (EACH WAY) @ $10+, MORIARTY (WIN) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
** BEST VALUE **: PEPPERANO @ $26+, HOT SNITZEL @ $21+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: SMOKIN JOEY, FAST N ROCKING @ $41+
Average odds of $15.58+ per suggested runner.