6 June 2015 (Racing at Moonee Valley)

Racing at MOONEE VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 5.08, meaning we're on a SOFT (6).

RAIL: +2M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We’re back at the Valley for the second week in a row after a long break. Track favoured those off the fence last week when in the TRUE position and rail comes out +2M here. Hoping for a relatively level playing field with tempo the key as usual. If anything, expect no major disadvantage to be coming from off the pace especially as the day goes on. Be sure to monitor early races for best guide and as usual use tempo as your best guide.

 

Race 1: Extremely difficult opener to the card with plenty of guesswork. Prefer to wait to see them in the yard, monitor money closer to jump time, and/or watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 2: Like the Moody quinella here in an even affair, with both advantaged by 2kg claims getting them right down in the weights here. Slight lean IT’S ABOUT YOU @ $7+ (BET365), ahead of stablemate CLUB STAR @ $9+ (SPORTSBET). ACT OF VALOUR the obvious main danger and a good candidate for multies/savers/etc but too short for mine at $2.25+.

SUGGEST: IT’S ABOUT YOU (EACH WAY) @ $7+, CLUB STAR (EACH WAY) @ $9+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Very tricky race again. Hoping for a moderate pace at best and if so have JAPHILS @ $6+ as top pick here. Best value who we are willing to give another chance to is CORONATION SHALLAN @ $14+ who we liked last week but ended up close to the rail which wasn’t the place to be. First up was super, so can bounce back here at big odds. Race doesn’t end there with many legitimate winning chances.

SUGGEST: JAPHILS (EACH WAY) @ $6+, CORONATION SHALLAN (EACH WAY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 4: Extremely tough start to what looks a very tough card at Money Valley. A usual very competitive benchmark 70 with no outstanding form throughout. Was super keen on MR WALKER here at odds, but unfortunately scratched for another day. As a result, at this stage we will wait and see what else we can learn before deciding on whether to place a wager here or not.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 5: Decent race, but once again very even and competitive. Like one here at big odds who has left the Chris Waller stable, but may now have a new lease of life with new trainer Jon O’Connor. *SNIPER FIRE* has always had the talent, but has just struggled to put it together consistently but gets the chance to put two together on the trot and at $34+ (SPORTSBET) will declare as our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day at Moonee Valley.

SUGGEST: *SNIPER FIRE* (EACH WAY) @ $34+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 6: YESTERDAY’S SONGS the obvious one to beat but rock bottom odds at $2.10+. One for multies/savers/etc but we won’t be plunging into the short odds standalone. Instead, in ‘another’ tricky race we like two runners at very juicy odds in **SEATTLEITE** and **TO BE HONEST* both @ $21+ with BET365, both excellent each way value and as a result will make our BEST VALUE bets of the day in Melbourne.

SUGGEST: **SEATTLEITE** (EACH WAY) @ $21+, **TO BE HONEST** (EACH WAY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: KENJORWOOD looks to have these at his mercy as long as he gets around the Moonee Valley track. Should get a cozy run up front and as long as he looks settled and travelling before the turn should be too hard to run down. $2.10 decent enough price here so happy to play on a WIN only basis. We thought the main danger was TOOLEYBUCK KID who is now out, so no excuses here for the fave.

SUGGEST: KENJORWOOD (WIN – PRIMARY) @ $2.10+ (CONFIDENCE 60%)

 

Race 8: Another very tough race on a very tough day at Money Valley. Like two here first up, hence keen to see them in the yard and also see some money/support for them closer to jump time. WRITTEN and KHUTULUN @ $10+ the two we want to play around here. Deep race, many chances.

SUGGEST: WRITTEN (EACH WAY) @ $10+, KHUTULIN (EACH WAY) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 9: And a hard finish to a hard card. Not a card we’re overly confident with, however those days can sometimes spit out the better value winners. At this stage no runner standing out as great value, so at this stage will hold off and wait and see how track is playing and/or more information coming to hand before suggesting a play if anything.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

 

SUMMARY:

** BEST VALUE **: SEATTLEITE, TO BE HONEST @ $21+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: SNIPER FIRE @ $34+

 

Average odds of $13.40+ per suggested runner.

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING