12 July 2015 (Rainy day form at Warracknabeal)

Racing at WARRACKNABEAL with the penetrometer reading 6.08, meaning we're on a SOFT (7).

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Given the rain in past 24 hours, expect them to start coming wider/off the fence as the day progresses. As usual tempo in races to be the key guide as to where is best to settle in the run and best guide to how track will play is observing the early races.

 

Race 1: Tricky start with the lightly races 2 year olds, especially with two first starters in particular for Weird and Maher who haven’t had any public trials, in SHAKESPEARE ($4.80+) and ATLANTIC ROAD ($10+). Prefer the later on breeding, hence better value on face value, however Brad Rawiller rides SHAKESPEARE for Weir which usually equates to reduced odds…but in many instances for good reason. Of those who have raced, best form with PUBLISHER ($8+), SCINTILLER ($7+) and SOFT KITTY ($11+). Feel free to box them in something small, however too much guesswork for mine, hence prefer to watch and learn.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE/SMALL MULTIPLES (CONFIDENCE 10%)

 

Race 2: Similar to the opener, another tricky one with two in particular (this time both Weir’s) on debut with no public trials in FELLSPUR ($5+) and COSMIC ANGEL ($7+). Of those who we’ve seen, KATY KAT ($5+), ARISTARCHUS ($12+) and MARTHA’S MOMENT ($6+) have shown enough to be considered winning chances here. Thinking the winner will come from one of FELLSPUR, COSMIC ANGEL or KATY KAT, and then with ARISTARCHUS and MARTHA’S MOMENT to help fill the placings. Still a bit of guesswork involved, hence suggest boxing them in something small or simply watching and learning.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE/SMALL MULTIPLES (CONFIDENCE 10%)

 

Race 3: Two year olds again, but this time with exposed form to work with. JIM’S SPECIAL the value here at $10+, great each way price. Should be half those odds. Hardest to beat MRS ZELTFIRE however expected better than the $3.20+ on offer. Hoping for closer to $5, so will hold off until closer to jump time and suggest WIN only play here. Hoping the winner is one of the two, while best of the rest (for multiples/savers) are DUSTY MAMBA ($6+), DANZA KUDURO ($5+) and INALA ANGEL ($8.50+).

SUGGEST: JIM’S SPECIAL (EACH WAY) @ $10+, MRS ZELTFIRE (WIN) @ $3.20+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 4: FLYING MAGNUS should be hard to beat here with $4.20+ better than expected and suggest a WIN only play. Best value elsewhere lies with AKERBOY at $21+ which represents excellent each way value. While, RITZY DANE is also overs at $10+ and suggest WIN only saver. Main dangers the favourite SONDAICA ($3.60+) and RED TYCOON ($5+) who we’re happy to take on.

SUGGEST: FLYING MAGNUS (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $4.20+, AKERBOY (EACH WAY) @ $21+, RITZY DANE (WIN – SECONDARY/SAVER) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 5: Expecting two of Weir’s to battle this one out in LEICA DAY @ $3.50+ although hoping for $4+ ideally by jump time, while DAY TWO MISS is the other @ $6+ in first start for 10 months. Best value are those at the bottom of the weights in PLATINUM CITI @ $17+ and INLET @ $51+.

SUGGEST: LEICA DAY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.60+, DAY TWO MISS (WIN - SECONDARY) @ $6.50+, PLATINUM CITI (EACH WAY) @ $17+, INLET (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 6: Tricky race, but do like ANGUS CAROLUS @ $8.50+ which we think is an excellent each way price for this RB58 over 1600m. Top pick here, you can then throw a blanket over several other with claims, however of them best value I believe is with BONNY BLONDE @ $11+.

SUGGEST: ANGUS CAROLUS (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, BONNY BLONDE (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $11+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 7: NORDIC DUKE the top pick here at $4.40+. Best value with DENONINATOR @ $21+. Suggest one skinny quaddie with this leg and one wider depending on outlays pre-quaddie legs.

SUGGEST: NORDIC DUKE (EACH WAY) @ $4.40+, DENONINATOR (EACH WAY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

Race 8: ALREADY TAKEN the top pick here at $3.60+. Main dangers DIAMOND DUKE at $7.50+ (touch of overs) and RESTART MY HEART @ $5+ (unders but must for quaddies/multiples/savers). Best of the outsiders at odds KAPTAIN KEMPINSKY @ $21+ and BELLE OF THE SOUTH at $34+.

SUGGEST: ALREADY TAKEN (WIN) @ $3.60+, DIAMOND DUKE (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, KAPTAIN KEMPINSKY (E/W) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING