Racing at FLEMINGTON with the penetrometer reading 4.94 meaning we're on a SOFT (6).
RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to headquarters again after we raced here with great success last weekend when the trail was in the TRUE position for the entire circuit. Only a slim 5% chance of rain so every chance we get an upgrade and with the rail out +4M hoping for all runners to get their chance, although normally no disadvantage for those off the pace, especially if the rail isn’t the place to be. As always, be sure to monitor early races and speed map for best guide.
Race 1: Raffle to start the day with the 2 year olds down the straight on a softer track than many have ever raced on. As a result, watch and learn and suggest keeping your hands in your pocket.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (0%)
Race 2: Don’t mind a couple here at very big odds in ARENA ROCK @$34+ (SPORTSBET.COM.AU) and WINDJAMMER @ $51+ (SPORTSBET.COM.AU). Both worth small each way dabbles at big prices.
SUGGEST: ARENA ROCK (EACH WAY) @ $34+, WINDJAMMER (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 3: Even race with many legitimate winning chances. Think best value lies with two coming out of the same race from Moonee Valley on June 20, 2015 despite taking different paths since. EVERY FAITH @ $7.50+ (SPORTSBET.COM.AU) and MELALEUCA @ $13+ (SPORTSBET) are the two in question and like them both on an each way basis.
SUGGEST: EVERY FAITH (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+, MELALEUCA (EACH WAY) @ $13+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Another even affair, tricky with some above average gallopers first up after long breaks. If keen, be sure to take a look at them in the yard and monitor monetary support before investing. Not an easy race, but think OUR NKWAZI is stupid odds at $51+ again with SPORTSBET.COM.AU. Won three back at $51 and can hopefully reproduce that. His two runs since are not as bad as they may look on paper. Will actually hold off on any others until closer to jump time and post updates on Facebook/Twitter should we get keen on anything else.
SUGGEST: OUR NKWAZI (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 5: Another even affair with many different form lines coming together which always complicates things somewhat. Actually think the market is right on this occasion with HERSTORY the one to beat @ $4+ ahead of AMARELA @ $7.50+. Extremely wary of LITTLE HOTTIE first up at $9.50+, so look for stable support and check her out in the yard. One for savers/multiples if the support/looks are there. OUR HARMONY also one for multiples/savers at double figure odds.
SUGGEST: HERSTORY (EACH WAY) @ $4+, AMARELA (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 6: Sticking with the tough as nails ROUGH JUSTICE @$5.50+ just ahead of LORD ESPRIT at the same price, who gets a slight 0.5kg weigh swing on the top pick which should make things very close. Main danger hot fave SUPIDO first up for Mick Kent, while big watch on Tasmanian visitor VALIANT WARRIOR at double figure odds. Suggest the later two for inclusions in savers/multiples/musts for quaddies. Actually looks quite a shallow race beyond those mentioned.
SUGGEST: ROUGH JUSTICE (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, LORD ESPRIT (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 45%)
Race 7: CHARMED HARMONY the obvious and will be hard to run down again, but happy to take on at the short price ($2.50+) and instead search for better value, however is obviously a must for savers/mutlies/quaddies. Believe better value lies with ROYAL ISLAND and KHUTULUN both @ $10+. Looking further, have always thought STREETS AWAY is better than form/face value suggests so must have a dabble here first up after a long break at a huge $61+ price. And if $61+ isn’t good enough, well we also want to have a small play at VIZHAKA also first up at the even juicier $81+ price! FLYINGCONI the other for mutliples/quaddies.
SUGGEST: ROYAL ISLAND (EACH WAY) @ $10+, KHUTULUN (EACH WAY) @ $10+, STREETS AWAY (E/W) @ $61+, VIZHAKA (E/W) @ $81+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Not a race I’m overly keen on, however do have ABBASSO on top and the one to beat @ $6+ which is decent enough value for a play here.
SUGGEST: ABBASSO (EACH WAY) @ $6+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Tricky finish, best value one of our faves in CRAFTY CRUISER who is overs at $11+ despite the drop back to 2000m. Longshot blowout hope to CUBAN FIGHTER at $101+ with WWW.BET365.COM.AU.
SUGGEST: CRAFTY CRUISER (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $11+, CUBAN FIGHTER (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $101+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Flemington Quaddie (posted at 2:49pm AEST): 1 2 4 5 6 / 2 4 8 13 15 16 / 5 11 12 / 1 2 13