Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.12 meaning we're on a GOOD (3).
RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Caulfield for the final Saturday of racing for the 14/15 racing calendar, after a three week break (last raced here July 4, 2015) when the rail was out +9M. Expecting an even track however as always, be sure to monitor early races and speed maps for best guide.
Race 1: Difficult start to the day at Cashfield, with the opener over the short 1000m trip with several here first up after a break. Don’t mind the Robbie Laing duo here of JUST FOR STARTERS at $8.50+ and AUDINO at $51+. Main dangers most definitely CORSICA LAD and SUNDAY ESCAPE at much shorter prices.
SUGGEST: JUST FOR STARTERS (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, AUDINO (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (25%)
Race 2: Extremely difficult race with little value on offer across the board. If you must, have GREDINGTON slightly on top but not overly excited by the $4.80+ on offer. Needs some luck from the wide gate and ideally needs pace on up front (assuming they go back) and there doesn’t seem to be a great deal of it on paper.
SUGGEST: GREDINGTON (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+ (CONFIDENCE 20%)
Race 3: Don’t like shorties, but VOLCANIC ASH looks extremely hard to beat here @ $2.20+ available with BET365. As usual, nothing crazy with those at shorter odds, instead focus on skinny quaddie legs and multies.
SUGGEST: VOLCANIC ASH (WIN) @ $2.20+ (CONFIDENCE 55%)
Race 4: Like CHIAVARI here just ahead of MOSSBEAT, both at $5.50+ with www.bet365.com.au. Bit of pace on paper, so expecting both to get their chance. JAPHILs is good enough for this, but just hoping 1200mm first up will be a touch short.
SUGGEST: CHIAVARI (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+, MOSS BEAT (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 5: Tactics key here with absolutely no pace on paper, which could set things up for whoever goes out of their comfort zone and elects to lead. Best value lies with YOUNG TIGERS JEUNEY @ $8+ and can make a case for FLASH OF DOUBT @ $21+. PILLY’S WISH will be hard to beat especially with the handy 2kg claim from Michael Dee. Wasn’t keen on the $3+ on offer with most operators, but BET365 offering $3.50+ which is decent enough for a WIN only play here and/or your saving multiples/multies.
SUGGEST: YOUNG TIGERS JEUNEY (EACH WAY) @ $8+, FLASH OF DOUBT @ $21+, PILLY’S WISH (WIN/SAVERS) @ $3.50+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 6: HEAVY the obvious and hard to beat here, but $3.70+ not enough at first try over the mile and a half. GILCHRIST flew late in the same lead up run and every chance here. However, looking at a few others here at big odds with the two above the ones for savers/multies/musts for quaddies. Giving CUBAN FIGHTER another chance at $21+, and longshot chance to ARIZONA ROSE at $67+.
SUGGEST: CUBAN FIGHTER (EACH WAY) @ $21+, ARIZONA ROSE (EACH WAY) @ $67+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 7: Hoping for a hot pace up front here with plenty of speed on paper. If this eventuates, then really like one here at big odds in **NADEEM LASS** @ $41 (available with SPORTSBET). At these odds will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Then again on the basis the pace is on, like PETROLOGY @ $7.50+.
SUGGEST: **NADEEM LASS** (EACH WAY) @ $41+, PETROLOGY (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 8: Found one I consider massively over the odds here in *LANNISTER* at $67+ with SPORTSBET. Form franked by ABBASSO who was one we cashed in with last weekend. Also gets some weight relief from key chance/danger here WORD OF MOUTH and although not quite what is usually needed to overturn 5.2L defeat two back, odds disparity between the two ($5 v $67) is plain silly. At these odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. Hoping for a big Robbie Griffiths double across races 6/7. Also, giving REFULGENT a chance here at better odds than expected at $14+. RADICAL the main danger and the one for savers/multies. If they happen to be swooping then MANAGERESS comes into play.
SUGGEST: *LANNISTER* (EACH WAY) @ $67+, REFULGENT (EACH WAY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 9: Even finish, best value lies with GINGERBOY @ $21+. Should get the right run and with a touch of luck, should be every chance at the top of the straight. Also, think DIAMETRIC could be ready to fire second up and $11+ is good value here. Races runs deep with many legitimate winning chances.
SUGGEST: GINGERBOY (EACH WAY) @ $21+, DIAMETRIC (EACH WAY) @ $11+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Early Quaddie (Caulfield):
#1 (PRIMARY): FIELD / 3 / 1, 2, 3 / 3, 4, 5, 9
#2 (SECONDARY): 1 / 1, 2, 3, 9 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 8 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
#1 (PRIMARY): 3, 4, 5, 9, 17 / 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 10 / 1, 2, 5, 8, 12 / 2, 8, 11
#2 (SECONDARY): 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 9, 17 / 2, 7, 9 / 1, 5, 8 / 2, 8, 11
** BEST VALUE **: NADEEM LASS@ $41+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: LANNISTER@ $67+