1 August 2015 (Racing at Moonee Valley)

Racing at MOONEY VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.82 meaning we're on a SOFT (5). Cloudy with a very high chance of rain (90%) with a more than decent 3-8mm possible, most likely in the morning, expected to clear by early afternoon. As a result, extremely important you keep a very close eye on the track in case the rain (if heavy) causes issues. Monitor markets if wary of runners before investing.

RAIL: TRUE (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Money Valley for the opening Saturday of the new racing season. Hoping for an even track however as always, be sure to monitor early races and speed maps for best guide, especially with early rain forecast.

 

Race 1: We start with a benchmark 78 for the three year old fillies over the short 1000m sprint distance. PETIT’S FILOU has come up extremely short ($1.80+) after smashing them by 6 lengths over the same track/distance on debut midweek two weeks’ back. THE BIG DANCE was also ultra-impressive on debut back in March before putting straight back into the paddock for a spell, however also short at $3.30+. Both key players and big chances and options for savers/multies, but prefer the better value on offer for HAYBAH @ $15+ (SPORTSBET). Bit of pace on paper, but hoping HAYBAH settles just behind the leaders and gets luck at the right time. Small blowout hope to *GRISBI’S RUN* at $50+, also with www.sportsbet.com.au. Given the price, will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.  

SUGGEST: HAYBAH (EACH WAY) @ $15+, *GRISBI’S RUN* (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $51+ (25%)

 

Race 2: And now for the benchmark 78 equivalent to the opener, but this time for the 3 year old colts and geldings. Tricky affair, with not as much pace on paper, hence tactics could be key. Look for support for the two faves in TOP ME UP (who looks hard to beat on paper if ready and wound up after a 168 day spell) and first starter ATTACK THE LINE. If either attract support closer to race time, then confidence increases. If TOP ME UP @ $3.50+ (BET365, LUXBET, UNIBET) in particular is ready to fire, then should be beating this lot. Suggest playing on WIN only basis on the basis there is support closer to jump time. In terms of value on offer right now, best value lies with EQUINOVA @ $17+ with SPORTSBET, however obviously needs some luck from the widest gate. Give the Godolphin pair chances in BANTAM @ $9.00+ (BET365, LUXBET, SPORTSBET) and DEMONSTRATE @ $13+ (LUXBET).

SUGGEST:  TOP ME UP (WIN) @ $3.50+, EQUINOVA (EACH WAY) @ $17+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)

 

Race 3: Tricky open handicap with a small field over 1000m. Hard to put a line through any, and hoping for some decent pace up front to hopefully set things up for PISTOLIER to come from behind with the small weight @ $8.50+ with our friends at SPORTSBET again. Also give MR MAKE BELIEVE a chance at $34+ (SPORTSBET) with a big weight swing on several here, which he’ll need given where he has finished in recent runs.

SUGGEST: PISTOLIER (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $8.50+, MR MAKE BELIEVE (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: After three straight 1000m dashes, we then head to the mile course with another very even affair as the market suggests. Looks to be minimal pace on paper and as a result think it might set things up for SHADOW OF THE MIST @ $7+ with most operators.

SUGGEST: SHADOW OF THE MIST (EACH WAY) @ $7.00+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 5: Like LORD DURANTE here @ $9.00+ (BET365) on the presumption he’ll jump better and settle up closer to the pace here. Looks a good each way bet here. BAGMAN the obvious danger after saluting for Dungeon followers last time but see little value in the $3.70+ on offer so happy to risk standalone, but include in savers/multiples.

SUGGEST: LORD DURANTE (EACH WAY) @ $9.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6:  As most would know, we don’t like backing shorties, but TAWTEEN looks to have this at her mercy, presuming she’s ready to fire first up from a break. Baster just needs to make an early choice to lead or potentially take a sit behind VALIANT WARRIOR and if either of these occur without too much petrol spent, she should be very hard to beat. $2.25+ available on BET 365, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL and worthy of a WIN only play and also a candidate for a one out quaddie leg in skinny quad. As usual, with these runners first up from a break, be sure to monitor market closely, being wary of any notable drift.

SUGGEST: TAWTEEN (WIN) @ $2.25+ (CONFIDENCE 50%) 

 

Race 7: Interesting open handicap over the mile, which brings back some lovely memories or two weeks’ back when we likes VIZHAKA and STREETS AWAY both at 100/1 and they ran 3rd and 4th respectively allowing dungeon followers to cash into $19.40 place dividend and snag a slice of a massive first four. Today they are nowhere near those odds, however can make a case again for VIZHAKA @ $9.00+ (SPORTSBET). Also think SINO EAGLE is nicely placed here at the same $9.00+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) price, with the small query being the mile for the first time. RAPOSO the obvious danger after he broke our hearts last time reeling in PLAN at odds, but happy to risk standalone at the short $2.40+ price especially given the luck needed on the narrower MV track here. Will be ducking and weaving late. Include in savers/multies.

SUGGEST: VIZHAKA (EACH WAY) @ $9.00+, SINO EAGLE (EACH WAY) @ $9.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: Extremely difficult benchmark 78 over the 1200m, especially with a bit of pace on paper. Short sprint to the first turn of the 1200m at the Valley so expect the pace on, which may set things up for swoopers late, depending on how track is playing. At this stage, rather wait and see how the track is playing earlier in the day before suggesting anything here. Be sure to keep an eye on website, facebook and twitter pages closer to jump time for any updates.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%) 

 

Race 9: Even finish and very important to gauage how track is playing, especially if heavy rain comes early and the inside part of the track gets chopped up as a result, meaning out wide might be the place to be. Best value lies with KAREEMING @ $8.50+ (most operators) back to the suitable longer trip after a small freshen up and drop down in distance last time. Hoping he can replicate his win here three back against a similar field over this same distance, despite this being a benchmark 96 instead of a benchmark 90. Will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Also, think COOLDINI is a chance at $10+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET, BET365, CROWNBET) despite the bad draw. Will need some luck out there, but there is a chance that wide with cover is the place to be by the lucky last.

SUGGEST: **KAREEMING** (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, COOLDINI (EACH WAY) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

SUMMARY:

**BEST VALUE**: KAREEMING @ $8.50+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: GRISBI’S RUN @ $51+

Average odds of $14.41+ per suggested runner.

 

Quaddie (posted 2:55PM AEST) Taking a smaller percentage and hoping we can land some big value along the way. We were keen on TAWTEEN however concerned by how the track is currently playing with it seemingly suiting those off the pace, coming wider. For those who want a bigger %, simply narrow down the first leg. 
FIELD / 5, 6, 9, 11 / 2, 5, 8, 9, 16 / 4, 5, 6, 7 

 

#HAPPYPUNTING