Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 5.41 meaning we're on an improving SOFT (7). Forecast looks good, partly cloudy and only a slim 10% chance of minimal rain.
RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Rosehill for the opening Saturday of the new racing season in Sydney. Hoping for an even track however as always, however expecting no major disadvantage on pace, but wouldn’t be surprised if best going is a few off the fence. As always, be sure to monitor early races and speed maps for best guide.
Race 1: KING’S TROOP looked a moral here after just missing on debut behind JAPONISME, but was to meet the in-form gelding 4kg better for only a 1 length defeat. However, that’s not to be, as the Gerald Ryan stable have elected to scratch for another day. As a result, we’ll now run with the stablemate SHACKED UP @ $3.80+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) was also very impressive on debut beating a lesser field comfortably on a heavy track. Avdulla rides, was interestingly still booked on both runners as of last night and from gate 1 hoping he can dictate from the get go. Note, no third dividend here.
SUGGEST: SHACKED UP (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $3.80+ (40%)
Race 2: Don’t like the race, with every single runner placing last start which you don’t see often, many of which coming off heavy track run(s). Too much guesswork at this stage, so will leave for now, but as usual will update via the usual forums should I get keen on anything closer to jump time.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 3: Not an easy race, but as long as the track is giving on pacers every chance, then think MARDI @ $4.20+ (SPORTSBET) might be ready to improve third up today. Expecting to go forward from the good gate, however hoping to not get into a potential speed battle with the only runner drawn inside in FOOTY FAN. Will leave that with Winona Costin to sort out. Scared of BERIMILLA who would have been top pick had it not been for the bad gate, will need a bit of luck from there, however does have one of the business in James McDonald to work some magic. Includes in savers/multiples.
SUGGEST: MARDI (EACH WAY) @ $4.20+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 4: Tricky race, where MARENOSTRO does look hard to beat, however although we won’t be potting anyone who is keen to play that way, just can’t get overly excited about the short $2.00+ price tag. Looks to be a bit of speed here and as a result, hoping they fight up in front. On the assumption of this happening, think **GHOST PROTOCOL** can sit towards the rear and swoop late. Doesn’t win out of turn, however presuming the track allows for runners to come from the rear/wide, then think the $12.00+ available with most operators is worthy of an each way play. Handy 2kg claim from Serg Lisnyy gets him in with a featherweight 53kg. At the odds, will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney. Fingers crossed they bolt up front.
SUGGEST: **GHOST PROTOCOL** (EACH WAY) @ $12.00+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: Good competitive race, but far from easy. Slight lean to IDANCE @ $4.80+ (SPORTSBET) who we think just needs to get an ounce of luck in order to get off the fence at the right time as they turn for home. Main danger COUNTRYMAN who we’d expect to lead from gate 8 and any juice consumed early would be beneficial to our chances. Big watch on CENTRE PIVOT who could blow these away if 100% wound up for today. Would expect he has bigger fish to fry later on, so hopefully today he finds this a touch short. Will be rattling home. Include the latter two in savers/multies.
SUGGEST: IDANCE (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 6: Another very competitive race, where tactics will be key with minimal pace on paper. That’s why we’re leaning towards GREAT ESTEEM who will be up on the pace, and as long as there is no over-compensation by jockeys (which can happen when there is little pace on paper), then should be hard to run down at the tidy each way price of $6.00+ with SPORTSBET. Then, want to have a peanut each way on SPURTONIC who is out of form, but you don’t have to go back far and he was ultra-competitive in a Group 3 (only three starts back). At $51+ suggest a small throw at the stumps here. Race runs very deep, including one of our faves in RUGGED CROSS who saluted for Dungeon followers in April at a massive $67 price. Safe to say we haven’t seen that price or close to since.
SUGGEST: GREAT ESTEEM (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6.00+, SPURTONIC (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 7: Sound like a broken record, but another tricky affair with many winning chances here, many of which are drawn wide which will hopefully not suit, which can be the case over the unique Rosehill 1100m course. As a result, think the safest bet is ONEROUS here first up for the Hawkes stable @ $4.00+ with most operators. Blowout hope to *TERRA AMATA* @ $41+ with our friends at BET365. At these odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney.
SUGGEST: ONEROUS (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.00+, *TERRA AMATA* (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $41+ (CONFIDENCE 35%)
Race 8: Tricky finish, with tactics again key after many scratchings here and some key chances drawn wide. Somewhat reluctantly again looking at one who doesn’t win out of turn, but this does look an ideal opportunity to get back into the winner’s stall, especially from the gate. Again assuming on pacers get every chance, then think DRAGON’S FLYER is a good each way bet here at $7.50+ with CROWNBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL and UNIBET. Wary of CARELESS who has the class but needs to content with a big weight and wide gate, yet has the brilliant McDonald aboard and expect to lead them here. If track is favouring swoopers, then hot fave here in GOLDEN FALLS becomes even harder to beat, but do think currently rock bottom odds.
SUGGEST: DRAGON’S FLYER (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
**BEST VALUE**: GHOST PROTOCOL @ $12.00+
*BEST LONGSHOT*: TERRA AMATA @ $41.00+
Average odds of $14.92+ per suggested runner.