15 August 2015 (Racing at Caulfield - Cashfield)

Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.15 meaning we're on a GOOD (4).

RAIL: +3M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Caulfield for the first time in the new racing calendar, after a three week break (last raced here July 27, 2015) when the rail was in the TRUE position. Expecting/hoping for an even track however as always, be sure to monitor early races and speed maps for best guide.

 

Race 1: Giving GINGERBOY @ $4.50+ (BET365) another chance on the quick backup after just missing for us last Saturday. Should get the right run up front with minimal pace on paper and if left alone should be very hard to run down. Assuming leaders get their chance.

SUGGEST: GINGERBOY (EACH WAY) @ $4.50+ (40%)

 

Race 2: Looking at opening the card with a Darren Weir race to race double, this time in the form of LAKE SENTENTIA @ $7.00+ (BET365) who we think can get the chocolates after finally getting back into the winner’s stalls last time out. IGGIMACOOL all the rage $3.00 into $2.50 early, most definitely a big chance, but unders and little value. Another Weir runner **STREETS AWAY** best value and worth another play @ $21+ with BET365 and LUXBET. Given the odds, will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST:  LAKE SENTENTIA (EACH WAY) @ $7.00+, **STREETS AWAY** (EACH WAY) @ $21+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

EARLY QUADDIE (added at 12:49pm AEST):

2, 5, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 / 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7

 

Race 3: Very tricky little race, with tactics, pace and luck in running key. At this stage, we will leave and update followers via usual social pages if we get keen on anything closer to jump time.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 4: VEZALAY looks the obvious and if 100% wounds up and ready to fire first up should be hard to beat. In saying that, hasn’t been missed in betting @ $2.30+ and just be sure to monitor early races to ensure leaders/on pacers are given every chance (on back of first 3 races) and to simply confirm there’s enough support closer to jump time. As long as these occur, then we’d suggest a play on a WIN only basis. Alternatively, if leaders/on pacers seem to struggle early and/or there is a notable betting drift, then suggest steering clear or saving outlays to a minimum/savers/multies.

SUGGEST: VEZALAY (WIN) @ $2.30+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 5: And now for the first of the black type races, commencing with a Group 3 for the 3 year old colts and geldings over 1100m. Not an easy race at all and most wary of the fave here RAGAZZO DEL CORSA, one of many legitimate winning chances here. However, instead looking at the form from Moonee Valley on August 1, 2015. As a result, think DEMONSTRATE can win again here @ $7.00+ with SPORTSBET and BET365. Also, happy to give TOP ME UP another chance here @ $11.00+ again with SPORTSBET and BET365, while a blowout hope to EQUINOVA @ $34+ available with SPORTSBET.

SUGGEST: DEMONSTRATE (EACH WAY) @ $7+, TOP ME UP (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $11+, EQUINOVA (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $34+ (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6:  And now for the fillies equivalent to race 5 and PETITS FILOUS is all the rage which is no surprise. Has been outstanding at her first two starts and no reason she can’t notch up the hat-trick here. In saying that, be wary of the skinny odds with several here first up after breaks. Be sure to keep an eye on solid support for any of 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 10. In saying that, awfully hard to beat and a must for quaddies and could be a banker in some multies. Happy to give *GRISBI’S RUN* another go here at any old odds ($67+ with SPORTSBET), and at such odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day. While happy to hold fire for main bet here at the moment until closer to race time given the comments/reason mentioned above.

SUGGEST: *GRISBI’S RUN* (EACH WAY) @ $67+ (CONFIDENCE 10%) 

 

MAIN QUADDIE (added at 3:01pm AEST):

5, 9 / 1, 4 / 1, 4, 6, 10, 14, 15, 16, 17 / 2, 6, 9, 11, 13 

MAIN QUADDIE - skinny (added at 3:06pm AEST):

5 / 1, 4 / 1, 4, 14 / 2, 6, 9, 11 

 

Race 7: and now for the feature, the Group 2 Back to Caulfield Lawrence Stakes. Weight for age over 1400m and a small but intriguing field assembled. Big watch DIBAYANI @ $4.60+ (LUXBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, UNIBET) on Australian debut for Hayes and Dabernig. Has been ultra-competitive against the world class Able Friend, hence must be respected. Monitor support and money closer to jump time. If the support comes, and looks the part in the yard, may need to be upgraded to top pick. Regardless a must for savers/multiples/multies. However, given the unknown, at this stage we will instead have SMOKIN’ JOEY on top @ $3.70+ with UNIBET. Several dangers, but fairly confident the winner will be one of the two mentioned.

SUGGEST: SMOKIN’ JOEY (WIN - PRIMARY) @ $3.70+, DIBAYANI (WIN – SECONDARY) @ $4.60+ (CONFIDENCE 45%) 

 

Race 8: And now for the listed Regal Roller Stakes over 1200m with a very competitive, large field assembled. FAST N’ ROCKING is the one that jumps out here as top pick at the tidy $9+ price with most operators. Just ahead of GRIANTE first up also at $8.50+ (BET365), who we suggest a WIN only saver. Best value at longer odds is INSPECTOR @ $20+ (LUXBET, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, UNIBET) and finally a blowout hope to MR MAKE BELIEVE @ $67+ (SPORTSBET).

SUGGEST: FAST N’ ROCKING (EACH WAY) @ $9+, GRIANTE (WIN) @ $8.50+, INSPECTOR (E/W) @ $20+, MR MAKE BELIEVE (E/W) @ $67+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 9: So, we finish with a benchmark 78 over 1800m. RAPOSO hard to beat but always needs luck so happy to look deeper and instead prefer to run with CLEMO @ $8.50+ each way with www.bet365.com.au. Also willing to give LANNISTER another chance @ $18+ with SPORTSBET and BET365, on the basis that leaders get their chance earlier in the day. We will have a clear idea by now, hence if an even track or any hint of leaders getting any advantage, then confidence simply grows.

SUGGEST: CLEMO (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+, LANNISTER (EACH WAY) @ $18+ (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

 

EARLY QUADDIE (added at 12:49Pm AEST):

2, 5, 6, 7 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 7 / 10 / 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7

 

MAIN QUADDIE (added at 3:01pm AEST):

5, 9 / 1, 4 / 1, 4, 6, 10, 14, 15, 16, 17 / 2, 6, 9, 11, 13 

MAIN QUADDIE - skinny (added at 3:06pm AEST):

5 / 1, 4 / 1, 4, 14 / 2, 6, 9, 11 

 

SUMMARY:

 Average odds of $18.32+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: STREETS AWAY @ $21+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: GRISBI’S RUN @ $67+

 

 #HAPPYPUNTING