Racing at ROSEHILL GARDENS with the penetrometer reading 4.61 meaning we're on a much improved GOOD (4) track.
RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). We raced here two weeks back when the rail was out +3M and there seemed to be a distinct advantage to be out wider and running on. With the improved conditions hoping for a much more even track where all runners get their chance pace dependant, however expecting there to be no disadvantage closer to the fence today and closer to the pace. Given how it played a fortnight ago, very important you monitor early races for best guide.
Race 1: Tricky little race to start with only 6 in the field, however only three legitimate winning chances in our opinion. KIRRAMOSA looking for much longer, we’ve seen the best of DECISION TIM and HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME and although their best would win this, expect the three at the bottom of the weights will be too good. So it’s down to three as the market suggests. Concede PEEPING will be hard to beat, however $1.90+ isn’t enough value so prefer to leave for savers/multies/multiples. Instead, prefer to take on the very skinny odds in a small way with KRISTY LEE @ $4.80+ and WOODBINE @ $4.40+, both best odds with SPORTSBET. Look for support as they parade in the yard as this should be a good guide as to their chances of knocking off the hot pot fave. Adjust outlay accordingly.
SUGGEST: KRISTY LEE (WIN) @ $4.80+, WOODBINE (WIN) @ $4.40+ (35%)
Race 2: At first glance, this looked quite simply, however upon closer inspection can make a case for several here. If on pace/close to the fence is the place to be then CARELESS and DYLAN’S ROJO are where you want to play at $4.80+ and $10+ respectively. However, if they inject a little too much pace into the battle to lead and/or in pace/fence is off (not expected) then the likes of ASTRONOMOS and BERRIMILLA come into play bigtime at @ $6.50+ and $8.50+ respectively. And the key to all this may be what they decide to do with GRANDE PUNTO who may want to utilise the inside gate and lead, or take a sit and the answer to this question may well have the biggest bearing on the result. Given all this, at this stage we will hold fire but will update all via the usual social channels (FACEBOOK, TWITTER) should we get keen on anything specifically closer to race time.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 3: We always look at the form before checking odds and after reading through we had COUNTRYMAN on top on the assumption that he would be around the $3-$4 mark, given he should cross easily from the wide gate, lead, dictate and be hard to run down. However, small problem, he’s $2.30! As a result, will leave for savers/multies/multiples. Instead, think CENTRE PIVOT is big overs @ $14+ with our friends at SPORTSBET and is our suggested play here. Be sure to include SILVERBALL in savers/multiples also who will be charging late. Be wary of support for Godolphin’s MAGIC HURRICANE at the bottom of the weights. Would expect the winner to be one of the four mentioned, let’s hope it’s the one at the biggest price.
SUGGEST: CENTRE PIVOT (EACH WAY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
Race 4: Now for a benchmark 80 for the fillies and mares. And as usual not easy at all. We actually like a couple here who go forward (notably FOOTY FAN and MARPLE MISS), however our speed map has them getting into a potential speed battle and as a result, looking for those who might be suited by a strong tempo up front. As a result, have landed with HOLY DELUSIONS on top @ $6+ with most operators. Good each way value and should be hitting the line hard hopefully over the top of them. Can also make a case for JIAYUGUAN @ $14+ with LUXBET and PALMERBET. Look for support for the Richard Laming trained BLACK BOOTY also after making the trip north of the border with stablemate Wales. In saying that, this race runs very deep and there are many legitimate winning chances. Not easy.
SUGGEST: HOLY DELUSIONS (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $6+, JIAYUGUAN (EACH WAY - SECONDARY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)
Race 5: And now for the feature, the Group 2 San Domenico for the 3 year olds over 1100m which includes the return of the Golden Slipper champ in VANCOUVER as well as one time favourite HEADWATER. Personally, think this is a watch and learn at this stage with many very lightly raced and returning after decent breaks. As usual, we will communicate via the social channels (www.facebook.com/allsportpuntingdungeon, www.twitter.com/puntingdungeon) should we get keen on anything closer to race time.
SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)
Race 6: Benchmark75 over 1100m. Speed map looks to be moderate at best and as a result PRINCEFAMOUS should be terribly hard to beat @ $2.20+ with BETSTAR, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU and LADBROKES. Shorter odds than we normally like backing but we actually think the price is right. Recommend holding fire until closer to race time, in order to confirm that leaders are getting their chance early and just in case there’s any notable betting drift to be alarmed about. Lethal combination of Peter and Paul Snowden with Blake Shinn aboard. ONEROUS the obvious danger after he was terribly unlucky for Dungeon punters last time.
SUGGEST: PRINCEFAMOUS (WIN) @ $2.20+ (CONFIDENCE 65%)
Race 7: Benchmark 75 over 1350m. Keen on **FAROLITOS** here after the ultimate gear change over the break being gelded. Should box seat here from the inside gate and if ready to fire first up should be right in the finish at a very juicy $10+ price, again best odds with SPORTSBET. At these odds, will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney. Big watch on WALES @ $16+ (LUXBET), now with the Richard Laming stable up from Melbourne after serious betting to date in from as big as 50/1 when markets opened. Down in grade significantly after being well beaten in a Group 3 behind SMOKIN’ JOEY last time out. Given the stable confidence worthy of aa secondary each way dabble and be sure to include in quaddies/multiples.
SUGGEST: **FAROLITOS** (EACH WAY) @ $10+, WALES (EACH WAY) @ $16+ (CONFIDENCE 40%)
Race 8: Tricky finish, on the assumption that backmarkers can get their chance, then willing to give *DISCLAIMER* a chance here at a generous $18+ price with SPORTSBET. Given, the odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day in Sydney, although $18 is not normally the odds we would associate with a longshot, although we know many others would, so will settle for *DISCLAIMER* today.
SUGGEST: *DISCLAIMER* (EACH WAY) @ $18+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)
**BEST VALUE**: FAROLITOS @ $10.00+
**BEST LONGSHOT**: DISCLAIMER @ $18.00+
Average odds of $14.92+ per suggested runner.