22 August 2015 (Racing at Moonee Valley)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

MOONEE VALLEY

SATURDAY, AUGUST 22, 2015

 

Racing at MOONEY VALLEY with the penetrometer reading 4.79 meaning we're on a SOFT (5). Extremely low chance of rain (10%) so no deterioration expected and expect an upgrade to a SOFT (4) early on.

RAIL: +4M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Money Valley after MVRC opened up the new season 3 weeks back on August 1, 2015. On that day the rail was in the TRUE position and those away from the fence (normally coming from off the speed) were advantaged. Today we come out +4M across the entire circuit and despite the disadvantage two weeks back, would normally expect no disadvantage to be on speed, closer to the fence. However, the days of severe front running biases at the Valley seem to be over, so at the very least, hoping all runners get their chance, pace dependant, although our suggestions do favour those on/closer to the pace for the most part. As always, be sure to monitor early races and speed maps for best guide.

 

Race 1: We start with the 3YO fillies over 1200m and there looks to be a stack of pace on paper, making this an absolute raffle to try and decipher. Main problem being, in most cases only taking information from debut runs hence several could be more than capable of going back which would completely change the complexion of the race. As a result, at this stage we will be watching and learning. If this changes, we will communicate via social media channels closer to jump time.  

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (0%)

 

Race 2: And now for a very good benchmark 78 over the mile. Interesting speedmap with the three inside gates allocated to runners who led at their respective last starts. Hoping they don’t do too crazy though and expect USTINOV’S FURY to take the sit behind MAGNATUNE and LEVERACTION, which could be the race winning move if the pressure up front is moderate or worse. Willing to take the punt it will be, so suggest a play on USTINOV’S FURY who will just need a touch of luck as they straighten to be in the finish here at an extremely generous $26+ price, available with SPORTSBET. LEVERATION has the ability to lead all the way, and although a little wary of the possibility he may be forced to work to lead or sit outside the leader (MAGNTUDE) which will be outside his comfort zone, $12+ (most operators) good enough to find out. Finally, respect any support for GERONTIUS after a 10 week break who can win this if back to best after issues, and again at $34+ with BET365 juicy enough odds for the gamble.

SUGGEST:  USTINOV’S FURY (EACH WAY) @ $26+, LEVERATION (EACH WAY) @ $12+, GERONTIUS (EACH WAY) @ $34+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 90 over the famous 2040m at Money Valley. Tricky race with tactics potentially key. Liked DIGITALISM who is unfortunately scratched, possibly due to the wide gate which was the only query. Was hoping for better odds for TEMPS VOLEUR who I think might get the right run, with pace to suit and $8+ (most operators) good enough to play here with a featherweight 52.5kg after the claim. HONOURABLE AUSSIE the other over the odds and chances enhanced significantly if leaders/those close to the fence are favoured. At $11+ (LUXBET) happy to gamble to find out.

SUGGEST: TEMPS VOLEUR (EACH WAY) @ $10+, HONOURABLE AUSSIE (EACH WAY) @ $11+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

MULTI (added at 1:06pm AEST):

  • Race 3 - HONOURABLE AUSSIE (WIN/EACH WAY)
  • Race 4 - TAWTEEN (WIN)
  • Race 8 - LETMEDOWNGENTLY (WIN/EACH WAY)
  • TOTAL ~ 340/1

 

Race 4: TAWTEEN to be hard to catch out in front here but following scratchings (was originally looking to try and take on at the price), think $2.80+ (BETSTAR, LADBROKES, BOOKMAKER.COM) is decent enough value to play here on a WIN only basis. Best value elsewhere lies with **PILLY’S WISH** @ $8.50+ (most operators) after a short break.

SUGGEST: TAWTEEN (WIN) @ $2.80+, PILLY’S WISH (EACH WAY) @ $8.50+ (CONFIDENCE 50%)

 

Race 5: Another tricky affair, this time a benchmark 90 over the 1200m. VALIANT WARRIOR and SARDAAJ are most definitely the ones to beat, VALIANT WARRIOR’s query is where he’ll settle from barrier 8. Tricky gate and chances are he either gets posted wide of settles further back/forward than expected, while SARDAAJ is into a skinny $2.90 price and somewhat deservedly so. Given the barrier/skinnier quote will refrain from big cracks, but both are must includes in multies/savers/mutiples. Instead thinking CHURCHILL DANCER @ $7+ (UNIBET) who should settle in a lovely spot not far from the leaders and be right in the finish. Seems to have come back well this time in on back of good trial and first up run. Best value lies with SOLSAY @ $19+ (LUXBET) who looks nicely suited to this grade and gets the 3kg claim from Jake Bayliss. Include MIGHTY LIKE in wider quaddies/multiples who can win at odds ($15+) but query is the wide gate.

SUGGEST: CHURCHILL DANCER (WIN/EACH WAY) @ $7+, SOLSAY (EACH WAY) @ $19+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 6:  We start the quaddie with a listed race over the 1200m once again. And here we simply want to enforce our ‘best horse rule’ and as a result, despite the wide gate, keen on ODYSSEY MOON here @ $4.80+ with most operators. Wary of BOSTON LIGHT on debut who has support, but hoping Oliver can find a spot from the gate (doesn’t look to be a stack of pace here, unless there’s a bias earlier and jockey over-compensate) and should we find a spot close to the fence, think we’ll be getting the queue here. Looks a great each way bet.

SUGGEST: ODYSSEY MOON (WIN, EACH WAY) @ $4.80+ (CONFIDENCE 55%) 

 

Race 7: Listed sprint over the shorter 1000m distance. GREGERS the obvious class galloper here and had she drawn a gate we may have been starting a new rollover bet. However, has drawn wide, and most importantly there looks to be a bit of pace up front which may not make things so straight forward for her. She’s probably good enough to sit three wide and potentially still beat these, however do you want to take $2.05+ about her doing that, we’d rather err on the side of caution and as usual look for safer (less outlay) betting options at juicier odds. And save for multies/multiples/quaddies/savers, etc. If the pace is strong as I think it might, then this might be set up for FAST CASH to weave through the field late @ $8.00+ (LUXBET, BET365, CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL). Top pick here, with our primary investment each way. Then smaller plays on a few at big odds. We’ve had some luck with OUR NKWAZI in recent times also who keeps producing good consistent runs and as a result, think you can do worse @ $31+ (most operators) despite the wide gate. JUST MAGICAL another at a juicy price first up @ $34+ (SPORTSBET, UNIBET) who we can make a case for, while a peanut each way on *MR MAKE BELIEVE* @ $101+ with most operators. At such odds will make our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day.

SUGGEST: FAST CASH (E/W - PRIMARY) @ $8+, OUR NKWAZI (E/W) @ $31+, JUST MAGICAL (E/W) @ $34+ *MR MAKE BELIEVE* (E/W) @ $101+ (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: Open handicap over 1500m. Big watch ALMOONQITH first time in Australia for Hayes & Dabernig after solid support during the week ($21 into $12). Like a few across the card, had **ITSAHYMN** drawn a good gate, would have been much keener, but still think $17+ (SPORTSBET) is overs and warrants a play here. At the odds, will make our BEST VALUE bet of the day. Will need luck but speed-map has him a chance to slot in just behind the leaders with some cover. SUPREME WARRIOR is drawn to get a lovely run and Chris Parnham will be able to put himself wherever he pleases, depending on how the track is playing up until this point as well as assessing early speed in the race. $11 with BET365 is good odds. Finally, LETMEDOWNGENTLY was very tough to the line last time and no harder here so good odds at $14+, odds enhanced if leaders have the advantage, odds decrease if leaders are disadvantaged. At least by this stage, we’ll know. Deep race, most wary of ABBASSO of those right in the market.

SUGGEST: **ITSAHYMN** (EACH WAY) @ $17+, SUPREME WARRIOR (E/W) @ $11+, LETMEDOWNGENTLY (E/W – SECONDARY) @ $14+ (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 9: Tough, even finish with a benchmark 96 over the staying 2500m trip and very important to gauge how track is playing. Wary of one of our faves who is flying in CRAFTY CRUISER but surely 61.5kg slows him a little. Include in wider quaddies and multiples, but instead think weight swings allow KAREEMING ($6+ - BET365) and REIGNING ($6.50+ - most operators) to turn the tables in this order. KAREEMING was out best value bet of the day last time and was a close 3rd, but did cop a knock on the turn and gets a handy 1.5kg claim here. Wide gate but should be able to slot in behind the leaders off a moderate tempo. REIGNING should simply get the gun run and was in the close finish last time with the other three mentioned in this summary and importantly they gapped the rest. WESTSOUTHWEST another who is a must include in quaddies/multiples and if the leaders are favoured, then he jumps up in calculations and becomes a betting proposition. Expecting him to lead again here or be very close to. Take a first four boxed the same as last time (CRAFTY CRUISER, WESTSOUTHWEST, KAREEMING, REIGNING)

SUGGEST: KAREEMING (EACH WAY) @ $6+, REIGNING (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+, FIRST FOUR (1, 2, 4, 6) (CONFIDENCE 40%) 

 

SUMMARY:

**BEST VALUE**: ITSAHYMN @ $17+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: MR MAKE BELIEVE @ $101+

Average odds of $19.14+ per suggested runner.

 

#HAPPYPUNTING