22 August 2015 (Racing at Royal Randwick)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

ROYAL RANDWICK

SATURDAY, AUGUST 22, 2015

 

Racing at RANDWICK with the penetrometer reading 4.91 meaning we're on a GOOD (3). Extremely low chance of rain (10%) so no deterioration expected and expect an upgrade to a SOFT (4) early on.

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Randwick after we raced here two weeks’ back on August 8, when the rail was out +3M. Expecting no disadvantage on pace closer to the fence. As always, tempo key, but be sure to monitor early races also (along with speed maps) for best guide.

 

Race 1: We open proceedings with a Group 3 for the 3 year olds over the 1300m. I have the top three here (SEBRING SUN, VOILIER, SHARDS) ahead of the rest and all very closely rated, and as a result need to run with VOILIER as the suggested rate as they are $2.70+, $7.50+, $4.20+ respectively. Naturally, we’ll go for the best value in $7.50+ (CROWNBET) and hoping Shinn stalks SHARDS (who I expect to lead) all the way and be able to reel in late, while holding off the favourite SEBRING SUN. That’s the plan anyways.

SUGGEST:  VOILIER (EACH WAY) @ $7.50+ (35%)

 

Race 2: Another Group 3, this time for the mares over the same 1300m distance. Good, even race with more depth than it probably seems at first glance. Pace/tactics/track may be key with many fancied runners expected to get back, and three here usually like taking the lead role. Tempted by a few, but at this stage just can’t narrow down easily enough and no standout value wise. As a result, will err on the side of caution for the time being, see if we get a guide after race 1, monitor them in the yard and any money support, before deciding whether to play. Be sure to keep an eye on social channels closer to jump time for any suggested bets here.

SUGGEST:  NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 3: Benchmark 85 over the sprint 100m distance. FELL SWOOP all the rage and understandably so, however absolutely crunched into $1.65+ which we aren’t interested in. One for multies/savers, etc as he might simply be too good but no value standalone. Instead think MUSIC MAGNATE who we’ve always held in high regard is the better value @ $4.80+ (BET365). Just want Avdulla to be positive from the wide gate and if so, think he’ll be very hard to run down. Suggest a play to WIN and saver to run second to FELL SWOOP.

SUGGEST: MUSIC MAGNATE (WIN) @ $4.80+, FELL SWOOP/MUSIC MAGNATE (MULTIPLES) (CONFIDENCE 45%)

 

Race 4: And now for the Group 2 Coolmore Silver Shadow Stakes for the 3YO fillies over 1200m. Small field, but as usual with these types of events, hot race with every runner a legitimate chance. Watch and learn job if I’ve ever seen one. Not going to tell you not to back any as all look to have their fair share of ability and could simply come down to who has been set most for this race, while others may have bigger fish to fry later on. Good luck, should be a super race. Once again, I think tactics/pace could be key with several unknowns. As usual, should we get keen on anything closer to race time (trainer interviews are always a great guide in these types of races, as to fitness levels, etc) will post via usual social channels.

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 5: We finally downgrade from black type for a benchmark 84 over 1400m.And it doesn’t get any easier as this looks to run deep also. Once again, monitor track to see how it’s playing and tactics look to be very important again. Initially was looking to give HIMALAYA DREAM another chance after first start flop, but speed-map has him potentially working from the tricky gate with some decent pace up front. As a result, think the safer option might be FORGET who from barrier 2 will have the luxury of Blake Shinn putting him wherever he likes (most likely just behind the leaders) and with an ounce of luck should hopefully be fighting out the finish. $6.00+ (most operators) looks a nice each way price.

SUGGEST: FORGET (EACH WAY) @ $6.00+ (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 6:  And now for the Group 2 Warwick Stakes and the big boys are back, but unfortunately arguably the star attraction in FIRST SEAL is out. We were most definitely heading that way and now a bit unsure. With the star girl out, nothing jumping out bigtime as value, which is surprising in an event like this. Think the bookies have pretty much nailed this one, unfortunately. Would now prefer to get a better guide on the back of earlier races. Apologies, but not just going to suggest for the sake of suggesting and need to find value. Be sure to monitor social channels for any updates here.  

SUGGEST: NO BET AT THIS STAGE (CONFIDENCE 0%)

 

Race 7: Now for a Group 3 over the 1200m course. VASHKA if back to best should be winning here, however do think the $2.80+ on offer is a tad short given only 1 run since January. A good option for multies/savers and even a quaddie standalone if you’re looking for a skinny leg. There looks to be a stack of pace here, so will be interesting how the track is playing and whether you need to be on pace closer to the fence. If not, think this might be tailor made for something to swoop around them and if so think that might be **HEART TESTA**. Not one we back often, but normally seem to find him on the right day, so hopefully this is today. $10+ (LUXBET, SPORTSBET, CENTRBET, WILLIAM HILL) a worthwhile each way gamble and given the odds, will make out BEST VALUE bet of the day in Sydney.

SUGGEST: **HEART TESTA** (EACH WAY) @ $10+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 8: And we finish what looks a tricky day at Randwick over 2000m. Think ZAYAM can lead from gate 5 and give them something to chase, can be tough late and if so can hopefully hold them all off in the finish. $8+ good each way value with SPORTSBET.

SUGGEST: ZAYAM (EACH WAY) @ $8.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

 

SUMMARY:

**BEST VALUE**: HEART TESTA @ $11+

Average odds of $7.26+ per suggested runner.

 

#HAPPYPUNTING