29 August 2015 (Racing at Caulfield - Cashfield)

ALL SPORT PUNTING DUNGEON

WWW.PUNTINGDUNGEON.COM.AU

CAULFIELD

SATURDAY, AUGUST 29, 2015

 

Racing at CAULFIELD with the penetrometer reading 5.25, meaning we are expected to start on a SOFT (5).

RAIL: +6M (ENTIRE CIRCUIT). Back to Caulfield after we raced here two weeks ago (August 15, 2015) when the rail was out +3M. Expecting/hoping an even track however as always, be sure to monitor early races and speed maps for best guide, especially with rain falling consistently across Melbourne in the day’s leading up.

 

Race 1: Tricky start to the program, tactics/pace key with minimal pace on paper. On that basis, we think the leaders will be hard to catch and expect the two inside barriers to take advantage accordingly. These belong to DANESTROEM and SAMARTESTED who we think will finish in that order and both currently $4.80+ with most operators. DANESTROEM gets in with a featherweight 51kg after the Bayliss claim and was very impressive beating Noble Protector and Every Faith in a trial last week by a lazy 6L. Be sure to watch money trail/support/lack of for SAMARTESTED who is untried on softer ground.

SUGGEST: DANESTROEM (EACH WAY - PRIMARY) @ $4.80+, SAMARTESTED (EACH WAY – SECONDARY) @ $4.80+ (40%)

 

Race 2: Benchmark 78 for the 3YO fillies over 1400m. Unfortunately, think the bookies have nailed this one with ALASKAN ROSE the top pick @ $2.40+, ahead of SAILING BY @ $5.50+. Once again, the two inside gates, so expect them to capitalise and take forward roles and on the assumption the pace is moderate or worse, then think these two will take plenty of running down in the order provided. If rain affected, things get trickier, especially with minimal exposed form, especially on rain affected going.

SUGGEST: ALASKAN ROSE (WIN) @ $2.40+, SAILING BY (EACH WAY) @ $5.50+ (40%)

 

Race 3: Now for a benchmark 78 over the shorter 1200m trip and a big field assembled. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of pace on paper, but you normally expect additional speed injected in these shorter races with big fields as many try to find a spot with cover. Very hard with tactics and luck and running key. Think WRITTEN can overcome the horror barrier and cross easily enough and lead, on the proviso they don’t go quicker than a moderate tempo and doesn’t use too much juice to cross and lead them. If this occurs, could be hard to catch at a juicy $15+ price with BET365. Also watch for support for REAL TIME @ $6.50+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL) who was unstoppable last prep and recent trial says he’s forward enough to fire first up here. Both somewhat questionable on softer ground, so may need to re-assess if significant rain comes Thursday/Friday.

SUGGEST: WRITTEN (EACH WAY) @ $15+, REAL TIME (EACH WAY) @ $6.50+ (CONFIDENCE 25%)

 

Race 4: Now for the first of the Group races, starting with the Group 3 McNeil Stakes for the 3 year olds over 1200m. Like **STOKER** here at a very generous $15+ price with BET365. Pulled hard last time, out wide most of the trip, but still very close on the line. Gets gun hoop Blake Shinn aboard and finally draws a decent gate after two shockers this prep. Excellent each way bet and big overs. Race then runs very deep with many legitimate winning chances, be sure to monitor money trails for additional guides, early money at odds for MR INDIVIDUAL. Given the age group we’re dealing with, a bit of guesswork involved in assessing who might handle softer ground better than others which limited/no form to deal with in most cases, hence further reason to be having something smaller on something at bigger odds. Keen if he handles the going, price looks big overs and as a result will make BEST VALUE bet of the day.

SUGGEST: **STOKER** (EACH WAY) @ $15.00+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

Race 5: And now for arguably the race of the day, Group 3 over the short 1100m course, with a small but quality field assembled. Exciting to have RICH ENUFF back after a long break and will be very interesting to see if he’s back to his best or not. Dungeon followers took him on bigtime in the Caulfield Guineas and snagged the chocolates with Shooting To Win, but regardless of that loss before a failure down the straight, he was simply remarkable last prep. Be sure to monitor money trails and also interviews with the stable to ascertain how forward he is first up. If ready, will be terribly hard to beat but uncertain at $2.25+, but a must for savers/multies. Instead think the safer option and better value is with UNDER THE LOUVRE @ $7.00+ (BET365, WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET) who will need the pace on up front, but our speed map has enough pace injected here. Will be rattling home and hopefully reeling them all in before the post.

SUGGEST: UNDER THE LOUVRE (EACH WAY) @ $7+ (CONFIDENCE 30%)  

 

Race 6:  Open handicap over 1400m and another big field assembled, made difficult with half the field first up after a break. CHARMED HARMONY every chance again and gets in well enough again at the weights with the smart 3kg claim here. $2.90+ good enough value if you’re keen but for the sake of backing a few at odds, we’ll leave CHARMED HARMONY for savers/multies and possibly even a skinny one out quaddie. Also a slight query on softer ground, with only run on anything worse than a dead track an okay 3rd in Adelaide 2 years ago. Many chances, pace/tactics will be key with an even tempo on paper. Best value with JACQUINOT BAY @ $31+ (BETSTAR, LUXBET, BET365, BOOKMAKER.COM.AU, LADBROKES), *GENUINE LAD* @ $61+ (BET365) and SIR ANDREW @ $17+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL, UNIBET). Also suggest a first four focused around the four mentioned. Given the odds, will make GENUINE LAD our BEST LONGSHOT bet of the day at the juicy $61+ price tag.

SUGGEST: JACQUINOT BAY (EACH WAY) @ $31+, *GENUINE LAD* (EACH WAY) @ $61+, SIR ANDREW (EACH WAY) @ $17+ (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

QUADDIE (added at 3:16PM AEST):

2, 3, 7, 9, 14, 15, 17, 18 / 6, 8, 10, 12, 17 / 6, 8, 11, 13, 15, 17 / 3, 13, 16

 

Race 7: Group 3 dash over 1200m for the mares. Another decently sized field and 7 x first up from spells. Similar to the previous race with Charmed Harmony, this time we have VEZALAY who looks the clear cut one to beat @ $3.70+ (BET365). An obvious for savers/multies and possibly even a skinny quaddie one out (CHARMED HARMONY/VEZALAY could make a case for standalone standouts in the first two legs). However, once again for standalone bets rather explore deeper for better odds and again a little unknown on the softer ground so be wary of anything short. As a result, best value lies with MADAM GANGSTER @ $13+ (SPORTSBET), JESSY BELLE @ $16+ (SPORTSBET) and SCARLET BILLOWS @ $26+ (BET365). Suggest another first four play focused around the four mentioned.

SUGGEST: MADAM GANGSTER (EACH WAY) @ $13+, JESSY BELLE (EACH WAY) @ $16+, SCARLET BILLOWS (EACH WAY) @ $26+ (CONFIDENCE 30%) 

 

Race 8: And now for the big one, with Group 1 racing returning to Melbourne for the 2015/16 season with the Bloodstock Memsie Stakes run over 1400m. Like several prior, another capacity field and again with close to half the runners first up from breaks, so again not easy, with some guesswork involved in terms of fitness levels and how forward runners are first up. Hard race, BOBAN might just blow them away again, however @ $4.80+, given his inconsistent record, decent question mark on his ability on softer ground and a constant need for luck in running more times than not, happy to look elsewhere. Best value looks to be STRATUM STAR @ $11+ (CENTREBET, WILLIAM HILL), SMOKIN’ JOEY @ $17+ (SPORTSBET, BET365) and SENTINUM @ $51+ (SPORTSBET, BET365). Main dangers to those listed VOLKSTOK ‘N’ BARRELL and WEARY. If STRATUM STAR is a notable drifter/doesn’t run then upgrade the main dangers into your plays. STRATUM STAR and SENTINEL both unknown on the softer track, so look for any signs from stable in particular via money trails and pre-race interviews.

 

SUGGEST: STRATUM STAR (EACH WAY) @ $11+, SMOKIN’ JOEY (EACH WAY) @ $17+, SENTINUM (EACH WAY) @ $51+ (CONFIDENCE 25%) 

 

Race 9: So, we finish with a listed race over 1700m. Another deep race with a big field, however top pick here is IGGIMACOOL @ $4.80+ (WILLIAM HILL, CENTREBET), while good value on offer for DIG A PONY @ $12+ (BET365), with the expectation that they are coming out wide by the finale here.

SUGGEST: IGGIMACOOL (EACH WAY) @ $4.80+, DIG A PONY (EACH WAY) @ $12+ (CONFIDENCE 35%) 

 

QUADDIE (added at 3:16PM AEST): 

2, 3, 7, 9, 14, 15, 17, 18 / 6, 8, 10, 12, 17 / 6, 8, 11, 13, 15, 17 / 3, 13, 16

 

SUMMARY:

Average odds of $16.88+ per suggested runner!

** BEST VALUE **: STOKER @ $15+

*BEST LONGSHOT*: GENUINE LAD @ $61+

 

#happypunting